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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Reasons for my Sideline Approach

Reasons for my Sideline Approach

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1Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Reasons for my Sideline Approach Mon Sep 09, 2013 11:22 am

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Colombo Stock Exchange
1) Poor Management of companies, corruption and bankruptcy
These include PCH and group, TWOD, CIFL
2) Stories about more finance companies in trouble down the line and CBSL realizing this and introducing new regulations to manage the crisis
3) Gold loans being defaulted and banks making huge provisions, eroding their bottom line in the process, dragging down EPS and making banks look expensive. SAMP, LFIN, PABC lead the group and concerns with HNB.
4) Many see JKH rights issue as negative and believe will take a long time to get back the expected returns. JKH expected to fall further
5) Propping up of shares like LLUB, NEST, JKH, CTC and now when they correct, they drag down the market as a whole
6) Poor earnings by plantations and weak occupancy and profit growth in hotels

In technical point of view, ASPI has crossed way below 200 day moving average and now you can see 50 day cross below 100 day line. Not a healthy sign.

Economy
1) Impact from slowing growth in India and other regional economies
2) Possible further weaking of LKR pending
3) Extensive losses by state companies and government doing nothing about it
4) Heavy default of gold loans possible for BOC and People's bank
5) No signs of easing interest rates
6) Failure of major foreign projects to take off as yet, Eg. Krish, Shangri La
7) High electricity prices
8)Poor taxation policies and corruption

Global
1) Crashing gold prices
2) Conflicting articles about oil hitting $50 and some saying will move to $200
3) US attack on Syria and more middle East turmoil
4) Foreigners pulling out funds and being more attracted towards US based investments

Cheers!

2Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Mon Sep 09, 2013 11:39 am

dhanurrox


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Better never buy a share then.Above is the professional way of telling " Don't buy" we need to collect more.You have taken huge effort to write this know?

3Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Mon Sep 09, 2013 11:48 am

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
My understanding of SIDELINE is wait and watch before i BUY...

It will be great help to me and others if u can point out the reasons why we should buy at this stage..

Will be a good insight of the current situation as i have listed only the negatives.....

Cheers

4Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Mon Sep 09, 2013 12:51 pm

yellow knife


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
ok friend

Now I may tell you some reasons why you should buy now

1. You should buy when all the others are bitten by fear and now it is so.
2. History often repeat itself.. 2008 December we saw something similar to today..But today is not bad as 2008.
3. Shares are becoming attractive to ME when i dont consider OTHERS.

Let me explain that

When ASIY was trading its highest MANY OTHERS were interested without knowing what is ASIY. Now I am interested in that knowing the dividend payout ratio etc.

4. When many who sidelined the market and make us buy , the volumes traded become thin.. That is a good sign to me

5. Anyway all what you said above is true.. All the negative factors are true. If you dare to swim against the tide now is the time.. And I too dont see quick recovery..

5Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Mon Sep 09, 2013 1:08 pm

glad


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Can you expect any incentives from the budget and or CHOGM?

6Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Mon Sep 09, 2013 1:17 pm

dhanurrox


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@glad wrote:Can you expect any incentives from the budget and  or CHOGM?
ASI bahave on a predefined way.We don't need them.Very Happy 

7Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Mon Sep 09, 2013 1:44 pm

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yellow Knife

You have outlined some valid points but I feel we need a direction and sentiment change or else market can fall further.

I am not trying to create panic or saying that market will free fall but there needs to be something really solid overall for a turn around.

Cheers!

8Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Mon Sep 09, 2013 3:33 pm

yellow knife


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
yes rapa

i too admit that there are no signs of directions

9Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Tue Sep 10, 2013 10:44 am

dhanurrox


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@dhanurrox wrote:
@glad wrote:Can you expect any incentives from the budget and  or CHOGM?
ASI bahave on a predefined way.We don't need them.Very Happy 
well done brave.

10Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:42 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Rapaport,
I tend to agree with you. Despite governor is talking about 7% plus growth, I think we may feel the pain of emerging markets more in the future.
The worry over banking sector would put some more pressure, they will be less inclined to lend more if they have problems in their books. This might put brake to growth. moreover, can CBSL for a rate cut? Very unlikely & very risky too.

EM woes will continue when Fed announce tapering … for the time being we take a breath. LKR is at severe pressure. The inflows would keep the calm water for a moment. We have structural problem this need long term efforts , till such time cabralconomics will show us magic only.

11Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Wed Sep 11, 2013 2:40 pm

dhanurrox


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Now what boys,Contradictions are there know.Think hard.

12Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Wed Sep 11, 2013 2:44 pm

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Dhanurox

You are not seeing the picture
Just cos the market is green does not mean things are rosy.
Almost half of that green is due to CTC on thin volume.
And i wont be surprised if Foreigners are selling out the JKH (Hope not)

Cheers!

13Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Wed Sep 11, 2013 2:54 pm

nkuda


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Rapaport wrote:Dhanurox

You are not seeing the picture
Just cos the market is green does not mean things are rosy.
Almost half of that green is due to CTC on thin volume.
And i wont be surprised if Foreigners are selling out the JKH (Hope not)

Cheers!
JKH price not changed, NEST down, Only CTC up in thin volume. This green not because of these heavy weight no?, Like we had green past days ?

14Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Wed Sep 11, 2013 2:56 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
@Rapaport wrote:Dhanurox

You are not seeing the picture
Just cos the market is green does not mean things are rosy.
Almost half of that green is due to CTC on thin volume.
And i wont be surprised if Foreigners are selling out the JKH (Hope not)

Cheers!
so u r a person who only looks at index?

15Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:24 pm

dhanurrox


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Rapaport wrote:Dhanurox

You are not seeing the picture
Just cos the market is green does not mean things are rosy.
Almost half of that green is due to CTC on thin volume.
And i wont be surprised if Foreigners are selling out the JKH (Hope not)

Cheers!
Big picture is hidden behind what is visible.And I'm following it.

16Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:21 am

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Good luck to you... Only time will tell.. Im still on the side line. No plans to sell but waiting for right signals to buy

Cheers

17Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:58 am

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
then you shouldn't enter Cse in next 5 years.
cheers!

18Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:08 am

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
This is the best time to buy

But i do not have money

Present problem will be solved in the long run.

Because govt manipulators already facing price mechanism

Their life time will be very shot

19Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Thu Sep 12, 2013 12:30 pm

besthope


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@D.G.Dayaratne wrote:This is the best time to buy

But i do not have money

Present problem will be solved in the long run.

Because govt manipulators already facing price mechanism

Their life time will be very shot
You are nice man. i am liking you.
i am noticing your name D.G. Dayaratne. if you mixing up the letters, it becomes DAY AT GARDEN.
i am thinking you are a lucky man spending time in your garden smelling the roses.
stock market also like garden. sometimes nice fruits and flowers will come. and the birds will sing and the bees will build hives full of honey ! sometimes fruits will be spoilt and no flowers. some trees will die due to baloney and lack of pora. sometimes fruits will be plucked away before ripe or crows will attack. and everyone collecting other peoples flowers to offer at temple also no ?
But araliya trees will always have flowers no ? even white house outside oval office is a rose garden.
I think you may be at the garden of eden. are you looking for eve ?    
all the best wishes, your friend, bh

20Reasons for my Sideline Approach Empty Re: Reasons for my Sideline Approach Thu Sep 12, 2013 8:46 pm

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Actually i can't understand what you say. Any way thank you very much

My effort is to convert SL stock market in to a natural garden

In other wards market should be run by natural market forces Not buy
govt manipulation. It is very obvious there has been govt manipulation
after 2009

The origin of present problem is govt manipulation

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