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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Q2 GDP 6.8%

Q2 GDP 6.8%

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1Q2 GDP 6.8%  Empty Q2 GDP 6.8% Fri Sep 13, 2013 4:05 pm

VISA


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
What will be the market impact ?

http://www.statistics.gov.lk/national_accounts/Press%20Release/press_note_Q2_2013english.pdf

http://www.statistics.gov.lk/national_accounts/Press%20Release/GDP%20Summary%20Indicators%202013%20Q2.pdf

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Sept 13, 20132 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's economy grew 6.8 percent in the June 2013 quarter from a year earlier, the state statistics office said.

The agriculture sector shrank 1.1 percent; industry grew 10.1 percent and services 6.6 percent.

In agriculture tea had contracted 0.5 percent, rubber had grown 2.0 percent, coconut had shrunk 25.4 percent and paddy was up 2.1 percent.

Fishing contracted 5.3 percent.

In industry manufacturing was up 5.3 percent with textile and apparel up 6.2 percent. Mining was up 12.6 percent.

In services wholesale and retail trade was up 6.6 percent, transport 10 percent, hotels and restaurants up 21.1 percent.

Telecoms was up 8.9 percent, banking and finance was up 6.3 percent.

Government services grew 3.9 percent.
http://www.lankabusinessonline.com/news/sri-lankas-economy-grows-6.8-pct-in-2013-june-quarter:-stats-office/1573315066

3Q2 GDP 6.8%  Empty Re: Q2 GDP 6.8% Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:05 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Should be good

4Q2 GDP 6.8%  Empty Re: Q2 GDP 6.8% Fri Sep 13, 2013 8:55 pm

Roboticfx

Roboticfx
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
GDP looks good but inflation looks bad.

Reducing of interest rate on loans and savings has caused expansion in supply of money in the country and it directs inflation rate to become a higher value. Currently it is around 8% which is generally be considered as fair but not much good. Exchange rate is now @ 131-buy and 134 - sell(US$). Increase of importing expenses may cause cost push inflation.

5Q2 GDP 6.8%  Empty Re: Q2 GDP 6.8% Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:10 pm

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
GDP growth 6.8
Interest rate has come down
Inflation 8%
Company performance is in satisfactory level according to
certified accounts by qualified Accountants

BUT stock market cumming down

Fundamental Analysts Technical analysts Pl answer

WHY?





Technical analysts,Funde

6Q2 GDP 6.8%  Empty Re: Q2 GDP 6.8% Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:52 pm

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Are you pretending as a child ? . Mkt is coming from 4800. even at 5500 mkt has gained a lot.

In other words in 2009 mkt was at 3000 if i am not mistaken. Now it is 5500 it shows the confident from macro economic perspective. Almost doubled for 4 years time horizon. Isn't it good enough?

I dont see any difference between you and the Dr........... Who says manipulation when mkt goes up and yelling about innocent investors when mkt comes down.

Mr. Dayarathna,

Please try to understand this.
Apple share price was at 700+level making Apple the most valuable comapny in the world. now with in very short period it has come to 460 level which is 30% drop.
Is it manipulation or the normal behavior of a mkt.

At least understand the behavior of a open mkt from above example.

Any way you gave a good contribution to the forum during last couple of months.

7Q2 GDP 6.8%  Empty Re: Q2 GDP 6.8% Sat Sep 14, 2013 3:48 am

celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Pakistan -2.5-3.5%
India-4-5%
Even China's GDP has come down to 7 from high of 10 to 11 .SO if we can maintain 6 to 7 % GDP for 2013, we should be proud of sri lanka and should give the well deserve credit to the govern...of Sri lanka.

8Q2 GDP 6.8%  Empty Re: Q2 GDP 6.8% Sat Sep 14, 2013 8:48 am

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Dear arena

Market was around 3000 before 2009 any fundamental analyst can understand comparing with prevailed situation in the Economy

Market has gone up after the war But sharp upward trend was  highly abnormal That was because somebody has manipulated the market to make "BORU SHOW" and may be for personal gain. No place to price mechanism
in SL stock market after 2009

4800 level in 2011 is also absolutely abnormal  due to  mismanagement

If if price mechanism is allowed to do its role there should be normal upward trend with ups and downs after 2009
Fundamental analysis and technical analysis can be applied only in market environment where market forces  are allowed  to behave freely
You can't see it in present stock market

My effort is educate people and prevent this unfortunate phenomenon
in SL stock market



Last edited by D.G.Dayaratne on Sat Sep 14, 2013 8:51 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : typing error)

9Q2 GDP 6.8%  Empty Re: Q2 GDP 6.8% Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:15 am

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
OK.

Then tell me according to your analysis Apple down trend is a Manipulation ?

From 700 to 460..................yes or no

10Q2 GDP 6.8%  Empty Re: Q2 GDP 6.8% Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:35 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
What we fail to understand is longterm investors do not necessarily look at present economic adversaries. because they are investing for the future.similarly we also should look to the future...and get discounted shares (not the speculative) after carefully analyzing there growth potential.
If you suspect CSE to be a manipulative place, we should not be here.
There are success stories as well as the once who lost most and if you again carefully analyze what the biggest mistake those who lost fortune, you can come to a conclusion.

Firstly either margin trading and expecting overnight results & want to be millionaires in months.
Secondly trading on speculative shares with over leveraging. Unless you can time the execution of entry precisely, you are doomed to get massacred.
thats the BOTTOMLINE.

Think market is your friend .
Invest on growth shares....

Give time for your investment to grow...its like a Plant or a Child.

TAH

11Q2 GDP 6.8%  Empty Re: Q2 GDP 6.8% Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:09 pm

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@D.G.D
Dear Sir,
Unfortunately Manipulation is part and parcel of the stock trading.
We can't always point the finger on authorities that they are the only one to curb these (in CSE case you have valid reasons to certain level but you need to think still we are in the third world country), our greed fuel the manipulators aim.

@Arena
You do have valid points.

But in Apple case greed move the price rapidly which at that time so many warned about that.

Note west or east or civilised or third world all the human beings have same feeling that greed and fear when its come to investment or trading.

12Q2 GDP 6.8%  Empty Re: Q2 GDP 6.8% Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:55 pm

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ Redbuls

yep iI agree with you and that is the same point i am going to prove. Apple didnt caught for manipulation.It is the way mkt behave. Same is Sri Lanka. Even LIBOR got manipulated. It is a part of any mkt. Authorities should try to reduce the magnitude of it. You cant avoid manipulation 100%. Just understand it.

13Q2 GDP 6.8%  Empty Re: Q2 GDP 6.8% Sat Sep 14, 2013 1:02 pm

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@Arena wrote:@ Redbuls

yep iI agree with you and that is the same point i am going to prove. Apple didnt caught for manipulation.It is the way mkt behave. Same is Sri Lanka. Even LIBOR got manipulated. It is a part of any mkt. Authorities should try to reduce the magnitude of it.  You cant avoid manipulation 100%. Just understand it.
Agreed.

BTW how is your web based business is going on? Best wishes.

14Q2 GDP 6.8%  Empty Re: Q2 GDP 6.8% Sat Sep 14, 2013 2:03 pm

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hmmm,

It is good. We sell all the products online and off line and through E bay as well to promote the name BillionCeylon..................Planning changers for the site......

Lets see. Thank you for wishes.

15Q2 GDP 6.8%  Empty Re: Q2 GDP 6.8% Sat Sep 14, 2013 2:46 pm

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Redbulls wrote:

Telecoms was up 8.9 percent, banking and finance was up 6.3 percent.
One is funding the other Razz 

Bank growth with no growth in other areas means ...........

16Q2 GDP 6.8%  Empty Re: Q2 GDP 6.8% Sat Sep 14, 2013 3:23 pm

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I always say privet sector manipulation is part of the game.
Evan manipulation they do it with profit motive.
if manipulation is harmful regulars can control it

SL stock market problem is govt manipulation after 2009
Origin of present problem is there

If possible i will write a news paper article to explain more

17Q2 GDP 6.8%  Empty Re: Q2 GDP 6.8% Sat Sep 14, 2013 3:52 pm

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@D.G.Dayaratne wrote:I always say privet sector manipulation is part of the game.
Evan manipulation they do it with profit motive.
if manipulation is harmful regulars can control it

SL stock market problem is govt manipulation after 2009
Origin of present problem is there

If possible i will write a news paper article to explain more

Appreciate if you could write an elaborate article in newspaper.

18Q2 GDP 6.8%  Empty Re: Q2 GDP 6.8% Sat Sep 14, 2013 5:55 pm

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I Will give another example for unnecessary govt intervention to SL stock market

I have seen news item recently that Central Bank gov and Head of cse went abroad(Hongkong? ) to promote stock stock market.Can any one give example from any other country in the world .This not for direct investment promotion This to ask foreigners to by at very law prices at present
What will happen if foreigners buy large quantity. They will start to sell with a good profit after some time Country will loose hard earned foreign exchange by middle east workers and other exporters
Share market investment is not like direct investment for development
activities

Stocks promotion is not a Central Bank Governor's or CSE Chairman's Job
Any country it a Job of stock Brokers

Role of Central bank is clearly given in the relevant act

It appears that policy makers of these govt do not understand Role of govt in respect of stock market To my mind govt role is to create free
Business environment and make level playing field in the stock market and allow price mechanism work in the stock market

Pl correct me if i am wrong

Pl educate others if i am right



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