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DCF based projections

+10
nihal123
Redbulls
K.Haputantri
rainmaker
Dileepa
sriranga
Slstock
Jiggysaurus
Jana1
hunter
14 posters

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21DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Mon Sep 16, 2013 7:42 pm

Redbulls


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Thanks mate for your effort, may be the following link could help you.
http://www.streetofwalls.com/finance-training-courses/investment-banking-technical-training/4-discounted-cash-flow/

22DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Mon Sep 16, 2013 7:54 pm

nihal123


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Good work hunter
Continue it.

23DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:08 pm

sikka89


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Jana1 wrote:
hunter wrote:Well, if you gents are interested, I am in the process of developing a more effective way of evaluating a share. I would call it 'DCF projection' of share value. Here is the DCF projection of BRWN.N along with some other shares in the same price range.

DCF based projections - Page 2 Brwn_d10

In the graph, X-axis represents the years in to the future. Y-Axis represents the value. So, basically, with the current NAV, EPS and dividend payout, BRWN has a high book value but considering 20 years into the future, it's present value is ~Rs. 50/-. Ideally, if the whole line (representing the share) was above the current market price, it would be very attractive to majority of the investors.

However in my view, it's not that bad as some of the other shares (not shown here). On the other hand, there are more attractive shares as well.

BTW: I would like to get your view on this analysis technique.
Not sure about your analysis. I am pretty sure BRwn will reach its previous peak 400 within next 5 years. can ur model say so??
Can you explain how and why it fell from 300 levels to 90.Definitely a good one to buy and hold.

24DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:29 pm

Fresher


Moderator
Moderator

Good initiative. I did not give it a complete read but judging but seems a great effort. I'll be back to read this but on first impression I'm not getting the clear picture.

Jiggy has explained much. Also as mentioned in some comments, future cash flows too depend on a lot of assumptions. Good if you can note down some of yours if possible with others' who are following can contribute

25DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:41 pm

smallville


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Good that u brought this up Hunter.. very nicely put and a well deserving effort.. thanks..

Just adding my two cents..
The base of any valuation is, to my understanding to know the 'value of the company' thus its equal to the asset value, debt + equity.

The four most commonly used techniques in valuation are:
1. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis
2. Multiples method
3. Market valuation
4. Comparable transactions method

Apart from this I'd like CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model). However, I've heard that the correct methods, theoretically are "discounting-based" methods. But other methods also use widely..

My belief is; earnings are more useful than dividends, NAV..

We traditionally go for companies trade below NAV (or at a certain discount to NAV) for investments. But we also forget that some companies in some industries are going at a bargain for a reason.. Say, the risk, weather conditions like in plantations and hydro power.

So then if we analyse thoroughly, we cant rely on any of the widely used techniques, can we?
Then the million dollar question is; can we blend one? cheers 

Dont we compare same industries too? i.e. LFIN, VFIN, PLC, etc... VPEL, HPWR, FLCH, etc..

26DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Mon Sep 16, 2013 9:36 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator

npp wrote:Good initiative.  I did not give it a complete read but judging but seems a great effort. I'll be back to read this but on first impression I'm not getting the clear picture.

Jiggy has explained much.  Also as mentioned in some comments, future cash flows too depend on a lot of assumptions. Good if you can note down some of yours if possible with others' who are following can contribute
Thanks all!!
Great ideas are coming up from everyone here. That's very encouraging.

Laughing  As you may have noticed, this topic was started accidentally and well before intended times. So it lacks my usual preamble to explain what I am talking about. Anyway, let me try to clarify a little.

I've been using (my own) different means to get an idea about the value of a share for sometime.
In the recent past, with the help of some of members, a formula was developed.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t29902-my-share-valuation-formula

The result was helpful. But there were limitations.
As in the case with usual DCF methods, When we calculate the present value for different projected years, the final result may differ. For example, a share may look good when 5 years are used but may look bad for 10 year projection. Then a question is coming should we use 5 years or should we use 10 years; and why?

To eliminate that confusion, I decided to find a method to give a 'snap shot' view of multiple (year) period projection. That's the reason behind initiating this tool.

For the time being, as inputs, I have used only published numbers; NAV, EPS and DPS. So the automatic assumption is, the current trend in earnings and dividends will continue in to the future. (I know that's contrary to the basis of usual DCF methods).
The discount rate used is 12%.
I have taken EPS instead of FCF; so another automatic assumption is, the remaining cash after paying divided is considered as capital expenditure. (This is also arguable).

ALSO:
Few words about how I intend to used this tool......
Right now, I remain as a medium term 'trader', therefore, I need not and do not intend to use this to judge or predict any future market price. (For that, I consider technical analysis).
But there will be many uses of this tool such as, to identify the shares with a higher chance of a price appreciation; to judge if a market price is justifiable by its value; to avoid very 'expensive' shares; and to see if a share worth averaging etc.
Another accident use I noticed was there are common characteristic of 'overvalued-high demand' shares (NEST, CTC etc).

Finally, I do not know 'DCF projection' is a good name for this tool. May be I need to think of a better name later. Smile

27DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Tue Sep 17, 2013 11:36 am

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin

hunter wrote:My sincere thanks to everyone who commented.

I have had very limited exposure to accounting, so, would like to clarify a certain matter. Appreciate if someone can comment on the following.

As I understand, in the long run, Earnings and Free cash flow should show the same results. Whereas FCF would show big fluctuation time to time during capital expenditure; while Earnings would smooth out the Capex through depreciation.
* Am I correct?

On the other hand, manipulation of DCF figures are difficult compared to earning figures.

Anyway, assumed no figure manipulations, averaged earnings and DCF should give us the same results in NPV calculations.
* Should it?

If so, can we use Earnings instead of Free Cash in Discounted cash flow method?

Thanks in advance if someone can comment.
As far as I know, these are two different things. For earnings calculation depreciation, provisions for impairment of assets and accrued expenses for the period (whether paid or not) are deducted and what ever accrued income for the period (whether realised or not) is added. All expenses and income beyond the period (irrespective of cash payout or comming in) are not added and carried forward.

However, for FCF calculation only cash and cash equivalant resources available during the period (irrespective of their applicable period) are taken.

28DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Tue Sep 17, 2013 11:50 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Hunter / O thers


I am the culprit who moved Hunters embedded posts in a another thread to open a separate topic . I felt the need as Hunter should get some recognition and input.

i see you got good feedback.

But if I have made things uncomfortable Hunter, do you want me to lock this thread until you are ready ?



hunter wrote:
Laughing  As you may have noticed, this topic was started accidentally and well before intended times. So it lacks my usual preamble to explain what I am talking about. Anyway, let me try to clarify a little.

29DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Tue Sep 17, 2013 12:27 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator

slstock wrote:Hunter / O thers


I am the culprit who moved Hunters  embedded posts  in a another thread to open a  separate topic .  I felt the need as Hunter should get some recognition and input.

i see you got good feedback.

But if I have made things uncomfortable  Hunter, do  you want me to lock this thread until you are ready ?  



hunter wrote:
Laughing  As you may have noticed, this topic was started accidentally and well before intended times. So it lacks my usual preamble to explain what I am talking about. Anyway, let me try to clarify a little.

Oh no ! Slstock, this is fine as a separate topic and it is more appropriate so now. In fact, you did a good thing as I learnt and learning from everyone's comments.
At the same time, I wanted to keep readers informed, since the topic was started accidentally, the content may be written in a little 'ad hock' manner. I feel that is also ok. (This is not going to be a PhD thesis Laughing  )

30DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Tue Sep 17, 2013 12:33 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator

K.Haputantri wrote:
hunter wrote:My sincere thanks to everyone who commented.

I have had very limited exposure to accounting, so, would like to clarify a certain matter. Appreciate if someone can comment on the following.

As I understand, in the long run, Earnings and Free cash flow should show the same results. Whereas FCF would show big fluctuation time to time during capital expenditure; while Earnings would smooth out the Capex through depreciation.
* Am I correct?

On the other hand, manipulation of DCF figures are difficult compared to earning figures.

Anyway, assumed no figure manipulations, averaged earnings and DCF should give us the same results in NPV calculations.
* Should it?

If so, can we use Earnings instead of Free Cash in Discounted cash flow method?

Thanks in advance if someone can comment.
As far as I know, these are two different things. For earnings calculation depreciation, provisions for impairment of assets and accrued expenses for the period (whether paid or not) are deducted and what ever accrued income for the period (whether realised or not) is added. All expenses and income  beyond the period (irrespective of cash payout or comming in) are not added and carried forward.

However, for FCF calculation only cash and cash equivalant resources available during the period (irrespective of their applicable period) are taken.  
In that case, If you are correct,  EPS should be better than FCF for use in this tool. (That's what I have done anyway). Thanks for your view.



Last edited by hunter on Wed Sep 18, 2013 2:03 am; edited 1 time in total

31DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Tue Sep 17, 2013 9:50 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

How much a company earns for a share we buy is so worth than many things Wink Either they giv it a dividend or make new investment thru it..

32DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:28 am

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator

smallville wrote:How much a company earns for a share we buy is so worth than many things ;)Either they giv it a dividend or make new investment thru it..
That's obvious in theory.

But in reality, it seems, dividend acts as a measure of 'investor friendliness' and thus a booster in market price.

Suppose, NEST or CTC maintained same earnings but stopped dividend payouts. Would it affect market price positively or negatively?
Suppose RENU started giving handy dividends..?

33DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:36 am

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin

hunter wrote:
smallville wrote:How much a company earns for a share we buy is so worth than many things ;)Either they giv it a dividend or make new investment thru it..
That's obvious in theory.

But in reality, it seems, dividend acts as a measure of 'investor friendliness' and thus a booster in market price.

Suppose, NEST or CTC maintained same earnings but stopped dividend payouts. Would it affect market price positively or negatively?
Suppose RENU started giving handy dividends..?
Of course, a good divident pay-out affects market sensitivity & jackup prices short term, but it also reduces the cash resources it has for expansion, thus reducing the companie's worth long term. From a long term perspective, divident payments might reduce its market price.

34DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:39 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator

K.Haputantri wrote:
Of course, a good divident pay-out affects market sensitivity & jackup prices short term, but it also reduces the cash resources it has for expansion, thus reducing the companie's worth long term. From a long term perspective, divident payments might reduce its market price.
Excellent. That's a key point I was thinking about all this time.
If the business is expanding at a higher rate than the 'discounting rate', it make sense to reinvest earnings. Otherwise, it is better to give out as dividend.

The issue I want to solve is how to determine reliably what the business growth rate is.

35DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:29 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator

BTW: I think I should call, the model in discuss, something like 'Net Equity Present Value Projection'.
(Calling it DCF looks inappropriate and confusing.)

36DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Wed Sep 18, 2013 2:54 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

hunter wrote:
smallville wrote:How much a company earns for a share we buy is so worth than many things ;)Either they giv it a dividend or make new investment thru it..
That's obvious in theory.

But in reality, it seems, dividend acts as a measure of 'investor friendliness' and thus a booster in market price.

Suppose, NEST or CTC maintained same earnings but stopped dividend payouts. Would it affect market price positively or negatively?
Suppose RENU started giving handy dividends..?
Multinationals aint gonna stop giving heft dividends, are they? They need to take money back to their home countries. So competitive dividends are their policy.
On the contrary, if they stop, market response will be bad too.. Lot of ppl go for these shares despite there's growth or not cuz they give 4 dividends and that's a solid investment I'd say.

But companies must not give big dividends at the stage of growing just to make the shareholders happy. And what if VONE dont give dividends in coming qtrs, years? Would it mean VONE is not a considerable company for growth?

37DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Wed Sep 18, 2013 3:48 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator

smallville wrote:
Multinationals aint gonna stop giving heft dividends, are they? They need to take money back to their home countries. So competitive dividends are their policy.
On the contrary, if they stop, market response will be bad too.. Lot of ppl go for these shares despite there's growth or not cuz they give 4 dividends and that's a solid investment I'd say.

But companies must not give big dividends at the stage of growing just to make the shareholders happy. And what if VONE dont give dividends in coming qtrs, years? Would it mean VONE is not a considerable company for growth?
Yes, I've also been arguing myself in the same line; Earnings, dividends, asset values and growth are key to asses the share value. And decided how to incorporate Asset value, Dividends and earnings in to a model.

The problem I am facing is how to calculate a business/asset growth rate in a simple way based on past or present published data; (without taking any hypothetical/speculative estimates).

38DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Wed Sep 18, 2013 8:21 pm

Jiggysaurus

Jiggysaurus
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

hunter wrote:

The problem I am facing is how to calculate a business/asset growth rate in a simple way based on past or present published data; (without taking any hypothetical/speculative estimates).
If you don't want to do any gilmarting on future forecasts, take the 5 year earnings/asset CAGR (for the CSE it may be better to take the 3 year CAGR)

39DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:59 pm

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

As explained by others dividend has conflicting effects on market price.

Since P=D*(1+g)/(r-g)

Here market segmentation theory comes. There are investors invest in CTC to get dividend (may be relatively few) and others for price appreciation. If former was the majority, stopping dividend is negative in short run.


hunter wrote:
smallville wrote:How much a company earns for a share we buy is so worth than many things ;)Either they giv it a dividend or make new investment thru it..
That's obvious in theory.

But in reality, it seems, dividend acts as a measure of 'investor friendliness' and thus a booster in market price.

Suppose, NEST or CTC maintained same earnings but stopped dividend payouts. Would it affect market price positively or negatively?
Suppose RENU started giving handy dividends..?

40DCF based projections - Page 2 Empty Re: DCF based projections Thu Sep 19, 2013 3:27 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator

I worked out a longer introduction with some examples and put in a separate post. The link is below;

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t30808-graphical-view-of-share-value-investing-in-cse-vs-saving-in-fixed-deposit

Jiggysaurus & Academic, Thanks a lot for your views.

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