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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Will the Monetary Policy Review for September give some directions for CSE

Will the Monetary Policy Review for September give some directions for CSE

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hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Though we had some gains in speculative counters in last four days, market is more or less dull, as seen in this forum.

One reason to this is pressure on policy rates? Few months back, almost everybody expected a rate cut soon. But now most of the guys are asking whether CBSL can afford a rate cut soon, as rupee depreciated bit fast, though the reason is beyond CBSL control (USD outflows due to fears of early tapering in monthly bond purchases). There are few who are expecting an increase in policy rates tomorrow, though very very unlikely at this stage.

US Policy makers will decide at their Sept. 17-18 meeting whether the economy is strong enough to begin tapering $85 billion in monthly bond purchases. Most probably they will not announce the early tapering in this month as they are unclear about who will lead the FED in the future.

Will CBSL give us a hint tomorrow, on when they will go for the next rate cut? If it is happening at least in December, sentiments will clearly become possitive.




traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
CBSL may HOLD it till US decides ......

TAH

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Yes, some people may have  forgotten about this market boosting possibility.
Mentioned "good news can boost market"  several times in forum. With last quarter showing some  growth positiveness ( I mean GDP) , maybe there is room for a 25 pts cut?  
Let see what they do.



Last edited by slstock on Tue Sep 17, 2013 8:15 am; edited 2 times in total

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
like last time will it gain ....

VISA


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
rate on hold

http://www.cbsl.gov.lk/pics_n_docs/latest_news/press_20130917e.pdf

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

'Report has some positives. Anyway a shift need to happen from more public to private sector credit.

Who knows when they may decide to change their mind on the rate.

BTw, with par with the deposit rates , have the lending rates gone down? Anybody have any stats.




@VISA wrote:rate on hold

http://www.cbsl.gov.lk/pics_n_docs/latest_news/press_20130917e.pdf

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
The Lfin rates on islamic investments, i see a drop compared to previous quarter as per their website.from some 14 odd % to 13.5 or something when I checked yesterday.

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Sept 17, 2013 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's central bank kept its policy rate band at 7.0 and 9.0 percent saying lower pressure from the state budget deficit is expected to bring down lending rates further.

"Continued fiscal consolidation efforts by the government and greater financial discipline of public corporations are expected to reduce the public sector's reliance on banks, thereby passing the benefit of monetary easing to the private sector," the Central Bank said in its September monetary policy statement.

Heavy deficit spending and unprecedented losses in state enterprises which were accommodated with central bank credit drove Sri Lanka into a balance of payments crisis in 2011/2012 and kept interest rates high even after emerging from it.

In July credit to private businesses had increased by 28.5 billion rupees while credit to the state has also grown. Sri Lanka's broad money supply tracked by the Central Bank had risen 16.4 percent by July higher than the 15 percent target for 2013.

The Central Bank said inflation rose to 6.3 percent in August from 6.1 percent a month earlier but inflation pressures were muted with lower international prices also helping.

In times of weak credit inflation can remain muted as monetary policy in not transmitted effectively in to the financial system, though rapid currency depreciation can still take place and push overall prices up.

Global commodity prices (which reflect monetary policy of reserve currency central banks like the Fed and ECB) were also stable, helping domestic inflation.

Recent volatility in Sri Lanka's rupee, which the Central Bank attributed to attributed "the likely tapering of quantitative easing (QE) in the United States affecting emerging markets" had also eased.

The expected proceeds of a 750 million US dollar loan proceeds of National Savings Bank would help reach a 7.0 billion rupee year end target for foreign reserves, the monetary authority said.

Meanwhile Sri Lanka's economy had grown 6.0 percent in the second quarter according to the state statistics office. The central bank is expecting annual growth of 7.5 percent.
http://www.lankabusinessonline.com/news/sri-lanka-holds-policy-rates,-says-lending-rates-easing/1930773834

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