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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » DAILY CHRONICLE™ » Inflation declines in September led by low food prices: CB

Inflation declines in September led by low food prices: CB

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Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Sept 30, 2013 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's inflation rose 6.2 percent in September 2013 from a year earlier, slowing from 6.3 percent in August, data from the state statistics office showed.

The annual average inflation, which is a lagging indicator averaging across 24 months also fell to 7.8 percent from 8.0 percent.

The index fell 0.2 percent during the month to 175.8 points from 176.2 points.

The sub-index for food without alcoholic beverages and cigarettes fell 0.5 percent during the month and non foods fell 0.1 percent.

Sri Lanka's credit growth is slower than last year though state spending and borrowing is still high and the central bank is expecting inflation to be around these levels this year.

The International Monetary Fund has said monetary policy should not be relaxed further this year, until the effects of earlier easing is seen.
http://www.lankabusinessonline.com/news/sri-lanka-inflation-up-6.2-percent-in-september/122000413

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
Inflation declines in September led by low food prices: CB Consum10
http://www.cbsl.gov.lk/pics_n_docs/latest_news/press_20130930e.pdf

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Inflation, as measured by the Colombo Consumers’ Price Index (CCPI) (2006/07=100) computed by the Department of Census and Statistics, decreased to 6.2% in September 2013 from 6.3% in the previous month, on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, mainly due to low food prices.

The annual average inflation rate also decreased further to 7.8% in September 2013 from 8.0% in the previous month, for the fourth consecutive month.

Core inflation on both YoY and annual average basis decreased to 3.0% and 5.7%, respectively, in September 2013 from 3.1% and 5.9%, respectively, in August 2013.

Inflation declines in September led by low food prices: CB 2310

The CCPI decreased by 0.2% in September 2013 over the previous month, with the Index decreasing in absolute terms to 175.8 from 176.2 in August 2013. The contribution to the monthly decrease in the Index came mainly from price decreases (by 0.5%) in the Food and Non Alcoholic Beverages sub-category.

Within the Food category, the prices of almost all varieties of rice, vegetables, fresh fish, dried fish, chicken, potatoes, green chillies and big onions decreased during the month.However, an increase in the prices of some varieties of fruits, coconuts, infant milk powder, eggs, red onions and limes was reported.

Within the Non-Food category, decrease in prices was reported in the sub-category of Clothing and Footwear (by 0.3%).

However, the prices in the sub-categories of Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels (by 0.1%); Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance (by 0.1%); Health (by 0.2%); Transport (by 0.1%); Recreation and Culture (by 1.0%) and Miscellaneous Goods and Services (by 0.1%) increased.

Meanwhile, the prices in the sub categories of Communication and Education remained unchanged during the month.
http://www.ft.lk/2013/10/01/inflation-declines-in-september-led-by-low-food-prices-cb/

kukumarx


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
The Central Bank keeps boasting about these low inflation numbers. However I feel the inflation numbers are low because of lack of demand.

For some goods and services, lack of demand has prevented suppliers from raising prices even though costs have been escalating.
For some others, the lack of demand has prevented them from passing on the full impact of the escalations.

This is especially true (I feel) in categories such as- Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance (by 0.1%); Health (by 0.2%); Transport (by 0.1%); Recreation and Culture (by 1.0%) and Miscellaneous Goods and Services (by 0.1%)

Once demand picks up they will pass on these cost escalations leading to a increase in prices and consequently a jump in inflation.

This has been my observation over several cycles.

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Next time have a look at Money Supply figures

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