FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️ would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️
www.srilankachronicle.com


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️ would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️
www.srilankachronicle.com
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Encyclopedia of Latest news, reviews, discussions and analysis of stock market and investment opportunities in Sri Lanka


Submit PostSubmit Post
ශ්‍රී ලංකා මූල්‍ය වංශකථාව - සිංහල
Submit Post



EXPERT CHRONICLE™

ECONOMIC CHRONICLE

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)


CHRONICLE™ YouTube

CHRONICLE™ NEWS PRODUCTS

FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™

Views & Reviews, Analysis, Evaluations, Discussions, Gossip and Hot Tips relating to Sri Lankan companies listed on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE)
Contribute




DAILY CHRONICLE™

Latest news and articles published in Newspapers, Websites, Blogs and other online news sites relating to business and investments in Sri Lanka
Contribute



ECONOMIC CHRONICLE™

This is a section that provide news, views, analysis, predications relating to Political and Socio-Economic factors and how such activities affect the Stock Market and other economic activity of the Country.

Contribute




EXPERT CHRONICLE™

This is an exclusive section for Expert Articles which will help member to share knowledge through comments and responses of the members. All members are allowed to reply and make comments to these articles.

Contribute


Submit Post


CHRONICLE™ YouTube

Youtube Videos and other visual presentations relating Stock market and other investment advise submitted by members or other contributors.

Contribute


Submit Post


කොළඔ කොටස් වෙළඳපොළේ වංශකථාව
කොළඔ කොටස් වෙළඳපොළේ ලැයිස්තුගත සමාගම් කොටස් ගැන තොරතුරු¸විශ්ලේෂණ¸සාකච්ඡා¸ කටකතා¸රසකතා යන සියල්ල අපේම සිංහලෙන් කතා කළ හැකි ‘කතා මණ්ඩපය’

Contribute

Twitter Feeds
POPULAR COMPANIES
A

ABANS ELECTRICALS PLC

ACCESS ENGINEERING PLC Hot

ACL CABLES PLC

ACL PLASTICS PLC

ACME PRINTING & PACKAGING PLC

AGSTAR PLC

AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC

AITKEN SPENCE PLC

ANILANA HOTELS AND PROPERTIES PLC

ARPICO INSURANCE PLC

ASIA ASSET FINANCE PLC

ASIA CAPITAL PLC

B

BAIRAHA FARMS PLC

BALANGODA PLANTATIONS PLC

BIMPUTH FINANCE PLC

BLUE DIAMONDS JEWELLERY WORLDWIDE PLC

B P P L HOLDINGS PLC

BROWNS BEACH HOTELS PLC

BROWNS INVESTMENTS PLC

C

CARGO BOAT DEVELOPMENT COMPANY PLC

CENTRAL INDUSTRIES PLC

CEYLON COLD STORES PLC

CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC Hot

CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC

CEYLON TOBACCO COMPANY PLC

CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC

COLOMBO FORT LAND & BUILDING PLC

COMMERCIAL BANK OF CEYLON PLC

CITRUS LEISURE PLC Hot

COMMERCIAL CREDIT AND FINANCE PLC

D

DANKOTUWA PORCELAIN PLC

DFCC BANK PLC

DIALOG AXIATA PLC

DIALOG FINANCE PLC

DIPPED PRODUCTS PLC

DISTILLERIES COMPANY OF SRI LANKA PLC

DUNAMIS CAPITAL PLC

E

EAST WEST PROPERTIES PLC Hot

EASTERN MERCHANTS PLC

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC

E-CHANNELLING PLC

F

FIRST CAPITAL HOLDINGS PLC

G

GALADARI HOTELS (LANKA) PLC

GUARDIAN CAPITAL PARTNERS PLC

H

HATTON NATIONAL BANK PLC

HAYLEYS PLC

HAYLEYS FABRIC PLC

HAYLEYS FIBRE PLC Hot

HEMAS HOLDINGS PLC

HIKKADUWA BEACH RESORT PLC

HNB ASSURANCE PLC

HVA FOODS PLC

J

JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC

JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS PLC Hot

JOHN KEELLS HOTELS PLC

L

LANKA ASHOK LEYLAND PLC

LANKA IOC PLC

LANKEM CEYLON PLC

LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC

LAUGFS GAS PLC

LAUGFS POWER LIMITED

LOLC FINANCE PLC

LOLC HOLDINGS PLC

LUCKY LANKA MILK PROCESSING COMPANY PLC

M

MELSTACORP PLC

N

NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANK PLC

NATION LANKA FINANCE PLC

NESTLE LANKA PLC

O

ORIENT FINANCE PLC

OVERSEAS REALTY (CEYLON) PLC

P

PANASIAN POWER PLC

PEOPLE'S LEASING & FINANCE PLC

PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC

PRIME FINANCE PLC

R

RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC

RENUKA AGRI FOODS PLC

RENUKA CAPITAL PLC

RENUKA HOLDINGS PLC

RICHARD PIERIS AND COMPANY PLC

RICHARD PIERIS EXPORTS PLC Hot

ROYAL CERAMICS PLC

S

SAMPATH BANK PLC

SEYLAN BANK PLC

SIERRA CABLES PLC

SINGHE HOSPITALS PLC Hot

SMB LEASING PLC

SOFTLOGIC HOLDINGS PLC

SOFTLOGIC LIFE INSURANCE PLC

SRI LANKA TELECOM PLC

SWISSTEK (CEYLON) PLC Hot

T

TEEJAY LANKA PLC

TESS AGRO PLC

THREE ACRE FARMS PLC

TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC Hot

U

UNION BANK OF COLOMBO PLC

V

VALLIBEL FINANCE PLC

VALLIBEL ONE PLC Hot

VALLIBEL POWER ERATHNA PLC

W

WASKADUWA BEACH RESORT PLC


You are not connected. Please login or register

FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday

Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Empty Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Fri Oct 11, 2013 11:33 am

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
The monetary policy review is on Tuesday the 15th. I am expecting a minimum 25 basis points reduction. Also expecting CFVF to go above Rs.17 as a result. What about you ?

2Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:24 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Yes , it is matte of time till they cut the rates. We all eargely ( market too) expecting it.

3Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:45 pm

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
If everyone is expecting a 25 basis points reduction, I guess the market has already factored it into share prices.
Old Trading Strategy: "Buy the rumor, sell the news." Smile

4Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Fri Oct 11, 2013 2:15 pm

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
Don't know about "everybody" I posted this as I was wondering if it was only me, as the usual pre announcement hype doesn't seem to be there. CBSL seems to be cavalier about growth forecast for this year. Do they know something that we don't ? I expect mediocre results from most companies last quarter. Is it going to be inflows into infrastructure that is going to spur the growth ? Or access to Chinese market for our exports ?

Antony, nice to see you in this neck of the woods, please hang around, the quality of the forum deteriorates when seniors sit back. Making the load heavier on SLS and Small.

5Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:08 pm

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Backstage wrote:Don't know about "everybody"  I posted this as I was wondering if it was only me, as the usual pre announcement hype doesn't seem to be there. CBSL seems to be cavalier about growth forecast for this year. Do they know something that we don't ? I expect mediocre results from most companies last quarter. Is it going to be inflows into infrastructure that is going to spur the growth ? Or access to Chinese market for our exports?
In July this year, Cabraal had indicated that CBSL might cut short-term interest rates again in September or October if inflation continues to fall as expected. He said, “If we feel very confident with the events of the next few months, then we would feel a little more inclined to relax further... It will be a decision that will be taken around September, October.”

Realistically, the country will grow by upto 6.8%~7.0% during 2013 (which is not bad by any standards). The CBSL has to project a rosier picture to the external audience, and will forecast a higher figure than that.

6Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:21 pm

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
I guess between 50 -100 basis points reduction this time.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

7Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:30 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Hmm, 100 might trigger a big reaction at CSE but  not sure  100 at one go is too much. On the other side we know how CB likes to act.

Other possibilities :

I think 25-50 would be good  .
But several paced out 25s  is a possibility to consider if they think that way
Btw, if their goals is to make IMF happy , they will need to hold rates for longer. ( no change)







@sriranga wrote:I guess between 50 -100 basis points reduction this time.



Last edited by slstock on Sat Oct 12, 2013 4:09 am; edited 2 times in total

8Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:49 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Antonym wrote:If everyone is expecting a 25 basis points reduction, I guess the market has already factored it into share prices.
Old Trading Strategy: "Buy the rumor, sell the news." Smile
yeah you are right in one sense, the problem is in cse news driven trading has long way to go other than court cases etc on speculative shares, due to low liquidity.
look at DIPD did not see major losses in share price when they signed a MOU yesterday, which states closure of the factory in 6 months.
for a long term investor news sensitiveness would be a low key importance, so not much of a worry.

looking at past gains the S&P made ...I am pretty sure the news was out long ago imo as well.so it would be a matter of completing the trades with a slight push and sell off, then tongue 

9Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:44 pm

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Considering our higher growth trajectory, Sri Lanka's stock market should be trading at a P/E Ratio that is roughly 15% higher than the P/E Ratio of developing nations as a group (which is 10.7x). By that reckoning, P/E Ratio 12.3x is what the ASPI should be at.

It is currently at 12.05x, which means there is already some upside potential.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/quote/CSEALL%253AIND

I believe that the ASPI should be soaring above 6,000 soon. The trigger should come on Oct 15, when the Monetary Policy Review is released at 7:30 AM. I would like to see an aggressive 50 bps reduction in policy rates (which would accelerate the growth momentum), but who knows? CBSL might even leave the rates unchanged for now...

10Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Sat Oct 12, 2013 2:06 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Antonym wrote:Considering our higher growth trajectory, Sri Lanka's stock market should be trading at a P/E Ratio that is roughly 15% higher than the P/E Ratio of developing nations as a group (which is 10.7x). By that reckoning, P/E Ratio 12.3x is what the ASPI should be at.

It is currently at 12.05x, which means there is already some upside potential.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/quote/CSEALL%253AIND

I believe that the ASPI should be soaring above 6,000 soon. The trigger should come on Oct 15, when the Monetary Policy Review is released at 7:30 AM. I would like to see an aggressive 50 bps reduction in policy rates (which would accelerate the growth momentum), but who knows? CBSL might even leave the rates unchanged for now...
momentarily it should, that means the steady flow of funds will be channeled to equity based investments. but this process might take some more time to see the real effect in CSE know.as long as there is a longterm plan in this regard, we should be ok.

11Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:52 am

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
How far can rates go down? The FX is overvalued compared to other Asian countries

12Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Sat Oct 12, 2013 12:59 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Antonym wrote:Considering our higher growth trajectory, Sri Lanka's stock market should be trading at a P/E Ratio that is roughly 15% higher than the P/E Ratio of developing nations as a group (which is 10.7x). By that reckoning, P/E Ratio 12.3x is what the ASPI should be at.

It is currently at 12.05x, which means there is already some upside potential.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/quote/CSEALL%253AIND

I believe that the ASPI should be soaring above 6,000 soon. The trigger should come on Oct 15, when the Monetary Policy Review is released at 7:30 AM. I would like to see an aggressive 50 bps reduction in policy rates (which would accelerate the growth momentum), but who knows? CBSL might even leave the rates unchanged for now...
Current Market P/E slightly higher as per capital trust and well above 12.3 if remember correctly Sad 

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
* Policy decision due Tuesday, Oct. 15 at 7:30 am (0200 GMT)
 
* Central bank has cut policy rates 75 bps since December

COLOMBO, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Sri Lanka's central bank is expected to keep its key monetary policy rates steady on Tuesday, a Reuters poll showed, after lowering them by 75 basis points since December.
   
The central bank reduced commercial banks' statutory reserve ratio by two percentage points from July 1, and cut its main policy interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) in May and 25 bps in December.
   
The island nation's central bank governor has said the monetary policy stance for 2013 would lean more towards easing than tightening.
   
Following are the poll's forecasts for where rates will be after Tuesday's announcement:  
Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Reuter10
http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/10/14/srilanka-economy-rates-idINL3N0I41AY20131014

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

14Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Tue Oct 15, 2013 10:00 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
So we did find out how CB likes to act.


@slstock wrote: On the other side we know how CB likes to act.

Other possibilities :

I think 25-50 would be good  .
But several paced out 25s  is a possibility  to consider if they think that way
Btw, if their goals is to make IMF happy , they will need to hold rates for longer. ( no change)

@sriranga wrote:I guess between 50 -100 basis points reduction this time.

15Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Tue Oct 15, 2013 10:07 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Market is RED......
Something big is going to happen IMO

16Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Tue Oct 15, 2013 10:41 am

stockup&down


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@traderathome wrote:Market is RED......
Something big is going to happen IMO
No TAH it's starting in green

17Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review next Tuesday Tue Oct 15, 2013 10:50 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
TAH, just posted the below ...
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t31200-cse-and-future#183955

@traderathome wrote:Market is RED......
Something big is going to happen IMO

Sponsored content


Back to top  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum