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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Where we stop with GLASS?

Where we stop with GLASS?

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1Where we stop with GLASS? Empty Where we stop with GLASS? Tue Nov 12, 2013 8:49 pm

keeper

keeper
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Glass price is down continually,Is it like BLUE, Do you remember when 2010,Blue X was about Rs 4.20,But now Rs 1.10,So Glass like blue?

2Where we stop with GLASS? Empty Re: Where we stop with GLASS? Tue Nov 12, 2013 9:05 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
GLAS had the "Busted Ascending Triangle" pattern forming for some time and falling from 5.10, confirmed it.

I hope this would bounce back before 4.20 which is the pattern's expected lower point.

3Where we stop with GLASS? Empty Re: Where we stop with GLASS? Tue Nov 12, 2013 9:40 pm

keeper

keeper
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:GLAS had the "Busted Ascending Triangle" pattern forming for some time and falling from 5.10, confirmed it.

I hope this would bounce back before 4.20 which is the pattern's expected lower point.
I have 10000 shares in GLASS,Average price is 5.10,smalvill,What do you think that price?holding or selling?It may come down up to Rs3.00

4Where we stop with GLASS? Empty Re: Where we stop with GLASS? Wed Nov 13, 2013 9:11 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@keeper wrote:
@smallville wrote:GLAS had the "Busted Ascending Triangle" pattern forming for some time and falling from 5.10, confirmed it.

I hope this would bounce back before 4.20 which is the pattern's expected lower point.
I have 10000 shares in GLASS,Average price is 5.10,smalvill,What do you think that price?holding or selling?It may come down up to Rs3.00
Everytime when a pattern indicates a target, that doesn't mean it has to reach that target. It can easily bounce back before it reaches the said target.

You have few choices;

1) Sell now and buy back low - for this u need to constantly keep an eye.. Cuz at any price it can come up. You can easily see from the following chart, GLAS hit the bottom level 4.8 in June 2012 and then it again dipped to 4.9 in August 2012. However, the last run to 6.70 was also started in Aug 2012 after hitting the second lowest (4.9).

2) Wait and average - the drawback is; we dont know where it hits low now. So if your avg is 5.10 and if this hits 4.20, ur at a 10000 loss approx.. If you avg another 10K at this point, that can be brought to a 5000 loss.

Where we stop with GLASS? Glas_t10

3) Then again, u can see the price movement illustration below, in that I feel like mostly the selling has subdue.. Since its now at 4.7, which is the lowest in recent times, may be 4.50 is the new low in coming days. For this, u must constantly keep an eye on GLAS price to decide.

Where we stop with GLASS? Glas_p10

5Where we stop with GLASS? Empty Re: Where we stop with GLASS? Wed Nov 13, 2013 9:27 am

keeper

keeper
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Smallville,Thanks for your advice,it is very clear,Thanks again,You have good knowledge and thanks to share with us.

6Where we stop with GLASS? Empty Re: Where we stop with GLASS? Wed Nov 13, 2013 3:51 pm

keeper

keeper
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Today GLASS steady in Rs 4.70,And trading up to Rs 4.80,Will GLASS going to peak again.....

7Where we stop with GLASS? Empty Re: Where we stop with GLASS? Thu Nov 14, 2013 2:36 pm

keeper

keeper
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Iwarai,When 4.60 huge selling pressure,in last minute ,

When price is4.60,Trading 682173 shares,This is the destroy of Glass,
Within next week it reach Rs4.00,
Any one know,There are big trouble in GLASS

8Where we stop with GLASS? Empty Re: Where we stop with GLASS? Sun Nov 24, 2013 11:43 am

kalum


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
guys to me GLAS is in "buy"stage now.

Wonder if there any thing else that we don't see in this down trend. because Friday also we have witness selling in big chunk early in the morning. fortunately it didn't continue..

any body know who sold 490,000 and 100,000 chunks on Friday? 

small can you help a bit if you can share or educate us re: GLAS?

9Where we stop with GLASS? Empty Re: Where we stop with GLASS? Sun Nov 24, 2013 2:26 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
At 4.5, GLAS is now resting at 2010 support levels. It already broken down from 100% support level from last run.
700Mn shares on last day trading.

From chart u cant say a buying point. Only thing is u have to now look at the volumes.. less volumes trading at 04.20- 04.40 is a sign of diminish selling pressure.

I think GLAS will trade at this levels for couple of days.. Only thing going down below 4.20 to me is some uncertainty in this company. For that has anyone checked their financials?

10Where we stop with GLASS? Empty Re: Where we stop with GLASS? Sun Nov 24, 2013 5:52 pm

kalum


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks smallville.



to be honest few months back i was under impression that this is a good share, i even collected few and sold. but i feel uncertainty to enter again due to several negatives highlighted in the near past.

I was inspired about this share after going through your analysis posted here.
it was very much informative. As you have mentioned yes, if GLASS going down further, there should be serious issue that we don't see in the surface level.


To add a bit, i am not that much technical guy. but i do some research within my domain knowledge, i use all the research data where i could reach (specially form my broker firm) and i do love maths. Smile

The below attached image is form my broker firm. When i say it's showing buying trend, i tend to based on this technical information. plus when considering volume and last 12 months high and low i am thinking technical background is ok to buy. But my fear is that if there any unrealized "fact" dragging this share price down consistently.

Appreciate small's input here.

Where we stop with GLASS? Glas11

11Where we stop with GLASS? Empty Re: Where we stop with GLASS? Sun Nov 24, 2013 6:06 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Electricity price is a concern for for GLAS. Is there anything other than that??

12Where we stop with GLASS? Empty Re: Where we stop with GLASS? Sun Nov 24, 2013 6:15 pm

kalum


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Leon, i wonder some thing else matters with GLAS.
financial wise as per my knowledge according to the last 6 months report eps dropped a bit but other than it everything looks fine. EPF was the second largest shareholder next to primal it self. I dont see electricity factor is the only thing that dragging GLAS to this situation. I know GLAS monopoly is broken and being an Indian company it is building some negative surroundings. my main concern to find out if there anything else "big factor"behind this fall. if not i see this price range is reasonable.

13Where we stop with GLASS? Empty Re: Where we stop with GLASS? Mon Nov 25, 2013 8:57 am

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Finance Cost is another killer. They have decided to sell the Ratmalana land and settle part of the loan.

But still Balance sheet ratios gives a bad picture for me

14Where we stop with GLASS? Empty Re: Where we stop with GLASS? Wed Nov 27, 2013 5:23 pm

WSJ_LK


Stock Trader
there end of Sep financials not good at all.....Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad

15Where we stop with GLASS? Empty Re: Where we stop with GLASS? Wed Nov 27, 2013 7:21 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Kalum,

The first graph in you illustration is the line chart of GLAS price movement vs EMA movement. In here, 12 day EMA & 26 day EMA has been taken as the measurements..
As you can see, the price has gone under both EMA lines since 5.40 and still it stays there.. Usually a buy signal is generated when the price of a stock goes above its 14day MA. This is not a norm but this is a confirmation of interest. And this is only one signal.

The second graph is MACD divergence, and MACD line cutting the signal line (this is again the moving avg of 9 days). The positive divergence indicates a buy. But its clear that after the negetive divergence of EMA as I earlier explained, the MACD also indicated a SELL with its negative divergence.

The final graph highlights the RSI (Relative strength) movement. Technically over 80 indicates overbought (sold at a price above its true value) and below 20 oversold. Usually coming up from 20s and going up cuttin across 30s are buy signals.

Once should combine all above indicators along with some other favorites that are proven to make a more prudent decision. My favorites are Parabolic SAR & ADX.

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