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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Advice on SHL...

Advice on SHL...

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1Advice on SHL... Empty Advice on SHL... Sat Nov 16, 2013 12:14 pm

eroshans

eroshans
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Dear forum members,

I invested on SHL IPO (@ Rs.29/= x 3000 = 87,000) still holding and stuck with that. Since I'm a beginner, pls advice on how can I recover...

appreciate your advice on this...

Tks

2Advice on SHL... Empty Re: Advice on SHL... Sat Nov 16, 2013 1:49 pm

Dileepa


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Just looking at the graphs, There is no point of selling now.
Purely technical point of view, It is the time to collect.
I'm not in touch with the fundamentals of SHL.
I think it is not that bad. May be somebody else will advice you on that.

@eroshans wrote:Dear forum members,

I invested on SHL IPO (@ Rs.29/= x 3000 = 87,000) still holding and stuck with that. Since I'm a beginner, pls advice on how can I recover...    

appreciate your advice on this...

Tks

3Advice on SHL... Empty Re: Advice on SHL... Sat Nov 16, 2013 3:18 pm

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
SHL for me brings good memories.

I bought this share pre IPO for 12/- and sold between 21-24/- post IPO. It was those days when shares where exchanged before being listed.

People got hammered with the IPO of EXPO and SHL and these shares have been brought to their knees!

To recover money you will require 250% + growth on any stock or SHL... At the moment i do not see any stock which may triple in short to medium term

Cheers!

4Advice on SHL... Empty Re: Advice on SHL... Sat Nov 16, 2013 3:27 pm

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
In general, average down is more practical than average up (at least by my past experiences).

Their cash cows are mainly local patients. The more Sri Lankans get sick the more mony they can make. Luckily their healthcare (Asiri) sector is doing well. We can see that local investors such Mr Captain has entered into ASIR top 20 shareholders list recently.

Finance sector is something MR Pathirage need to concern. Claims at AAIC & impairment for loans at CRL shot up significantly.

I still cannot understand why Mr Pathirage wanted the Ford dealership in Sri Lanka. It will burn cash many years to come. Someone has badly mislead him. Mad . SHL already spent 200 million on this and commencing soon. Ford dealership was not successful in Sri Lanka in last few decades. We all know that American cars are not so popular in Sri Lanka.
Their renovate hotel in bentota will be opened in Jan 2014 but make money from that take some more time.
I think as Dileepa said, you better collect some more shares from the market. Try to buy another 9000 shares from the market. Then you have a total of 12,000 shares. If you want buy another 9000 shares, then buy it from two different lots.

However above that depends on your ability to buy more, how long u can hold it. I would wait until they release the report. Only health sector outperform last time so far.

Also I would not buy shares now. Wait few more weeks..! I wouldnt pay 8+ ( due to current market conditions)

I would.......WAIT.

5Advice on SHL... Empty Re: Advice on SHL... Sat Nov 16, 2013 3:43 pm

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Well you also have an option of buying a more attractive share than SHL and profiting from it and wiping your losses.... Collecting SHL at this price may be attractive but you will have to WAIT i feel for some return...

Other shares you can look at AEL, TJL, LGL, CDB, TKYO, LIOC, etc which are companies doing well and show good growth... Going forward these companies are more likely to give some return in the form of price appreciation and dividens..

NOT a buy recommendation.. Please analyse before plunging ur cash!

Cheers!

6Advice on SHL... Empty Re: Advice on SHL... Sat Nov 16, 2013 10:45 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Rapaport wrote:SHL for me brings good memories.

I bought this share pre IPO for 12/- and sold between 21-24/- post IPO. It was those days when shares where exchanged before being listed.

People got hammered with the IPO of EXPO and SHL and these shares have been brought to their knees!

To recover money you will require 250% + growth on any stock or SHL... At the moment i do not see any stock which may triple in short to medium term

Cheers!
How you got shares before the IPO?? Was it from the private placement???

7Advice on SHL... Empty Re: Advice on SHL... Sat Nov 16, 2013 10:48 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@eroshans wrote:Dear forum members,

I invested on SHL IPO (@ Rs.29/= x 3000 = 87,000) still holding and stuck with that. Since I'm a beginner, pls advice on how can I recover...    

appreciate your advice on this...

Tks

I also had 2800 of SHL @ an average of 24.00. I sold it @ 9.30 recently and look forward buy back in next few weeks.

8Advice on SHL... Empty Re: Advice on SHL... Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:56 am

maurya


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
in shl 2012 admin expenses is 4 bn and in 2013 5 bn and distribution expenses has increased from .8 bn to 1.3 bn...all together cost has increased by 1.5 bn...but gp is more or less same...do any one know story behind this...?

9Advice on SHL... Empty Re: Advice on SHL... Sun Nov 17, 2013 8:34 pm

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Leon

Private placement was between 70-90 i think (cannot remember) and it changed several hands. They then split the pre IPO shares 1 for 10 and each share cost me around 12/-
Each hand had 2-3 bucks profit. The SHL management knew this happened. At that time there were no rules on private placement. I had an offer for my shares at 19/- just before IPO but didnt sell and there were rumours IPO price will be 21/-. Some Brokers helped selling pre IPO shares.

Cheers!

10Advice on SHL... Empty Re: Advice on SHL... Sun Nov 17, 2013 8:48 pm

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@Rapaport wrote:Leon

Private placement was between 70-90 i think (cannot remember) and it changed several hands. They then split the pre IPO shares 1 for 10 and each share cost me around 12/-
Each hand had 2-3 bucks profit. The SHL management knew this happened. At that time there were no rules on private placement. I had an offer for my shares at 19/- just before IPO but didnt sell and there were rumours IPO price will be 21/-. Some Brokers helped selling pre IPO shares.

Cheers!
http://www.thesundayleader.lk/2010/03/14/a-billion-for-softlogic/

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

11Advice on SHL... Empty Re: Advice on SHL... Sun Nov 17, 2013 9:37 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Rapaport wrote:Leon

Private placement was between 70-90 i think (cannot remember) and it changed several hands. They then split the pre IPO shares 1 for 10 and each share cost me around 12/-
Each hand had 2-3 bucks profit. The SHL management knew this happened. At that time there were no rules on private placement. I had an offer for my shares at 19/- just before IPO but didnt sell and there were rumours IPO price will be 21/-. Some Brokers helped selling pre IPO shares.

Cheers!
Sorry to trouble you, How could you get share before the IPO??? Can Pre IPO shares be transferred to someone???? So many grey areas..

12Advice on SHL... Empty Re: Advice on SHL... Sun Nov 17, 2013 10:07 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Leon wrote:
@Rapaport wrote:Leon

Private placement was between 70-90 i think (cannot remember) and it changed several hands. They then split the pre IPO shares 1 for 10 and each share cost me around 12/-
Each hand had 2-3 bucks profit. The SHL management knew this happened. At that time there were no rules on private placement. I had an offer for my shares at 19/- just before IPO but didnt sell and there were rumours IPO price will be 21/-. Some Brokers helped selling pre IPO shares.

Cheers!
Sorry to trouble you, How could you get share before the IPO??? Can Pre IPO shares be transferred to someone???? So many grey areas..
Well i don't know what exactly happen, but before the IPO, it was a Pvt company, so there was no restriction in changing the shares between individual investors.

13Advice on SHL... Empty Re: Advice on SHL... Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:03 am

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Once the private placement happened, shares issue during private placement were changing hands behind the scenes.

After IPO, the IPO shares and private placement shares were listed. Private placement shares cost only 7.2/- and IPO 29/-. Nobody expected IPO price was going to be 4 times more just about 18 months later!!!!

As a result price crash when people dumped their pvt placement shares.

Same story with EXPO. People became so greedy after SHL episode, EXPO pvt placement shares issued between 6-7/- were traded at 17/- to 20/- before IPO behind the scenes but IPO price turned out to be much less! 15/- i think..

Cheers!

14Advice on SHL... Empty Re: Advice on SHL... Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:14 am

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Rapaport wrote:Once the private placement happened, shares issue during private placement were changing hands behind the scenes.

After IPO, the IPO shares and private placement shares were listed. Private placement shares cost only 7.2/- and IPO 29/-.

As a result price crash when people dumped their pvt placement shares.

Same story with EXPO. People became so greedy after SHL episode, EXPO pvt placement shares were traded at 17/- to 20/- before IPO behind the scenes but IPO price turned out to be much less!

Cheers!
Last question, How you got those shares?? From a friend of yours or directly from SHL private placement??? You can ignore my question if it interrupts you.

15Advice on SHL... Empty Re: Advice on SHL... Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:23 am

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
From my friend's broker who arranged the deal!
There was a chunk of shares and we divided it amongst 3 of us! And yes new share certificates with our names were issued to us.. I bought at 12 in August and sold soon after IPO less than 12 months later!

This was then banned by CSE and nowadays pvt placement shares cannot be traded easily.

Cheers!

16Advice on SHL... Empty Re: Advice on SHL... Mon Nov 18, 2013 9:15 am

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Rapaport wrote:From my friend's broker who arranged the deal!
There was a chunk of shares and we divided it amongst 3 of us! And yes new share certificates with our names were issued to us.. I bought at 12 in August and sold soon after IPO less than 12 months later!

This was then banned by CSE and nowadays pvt placement shares cannot be traded easily.

Cheers!
Thank you very much for the insight of SHL.
Cheers..

17Advice on SHL... Empty Re: Advice on SHL... Mon Nov 18, 2013 9:42 am

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Leon this was no big secret.
People who did their research knew what was happening and yet retailers, investors and even SHL employees bought shares at the IPO!

It is one of the several reasons why SHL and EXPO prices now suffer.

Cheers!

18Advice on SHL... Empty Re: Advice on SHL... Mon Nov 18, 2013 9:58 am

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
And to add good things about SHL,

I feel the share has been brought to its knee's.

Debt is being managed better than most companies

Management has a vision and goal for the company and are working towards its future.

Low interest rates will help reduce its finance expense burden significantly.

Low interest environment will trigger sales in consumer and electronic products.

SHL in my opinion will be able to grow their business but at a slow pace. If things fall in place will be a good company to hold onto...

Cheers!

19Advice on SHL... Empty Re : Advice on SHL... Mon Nov 18, 2013 12:48 pm

eroshans

eroshans
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@eroshans wrote:Dear forum members,

I invested on SHL IPO (@ Rs.29/= x 3000 = 87,000) still holding and stuck with that. Since I'm a beginner, pls advice on how can I recover...    

appreciate your advice on this...

Tks
thank you all for your valuable comments. specially the story behind SHL and EXPO as most of beginners lost their money because of these over priced IPOs.

here, no money for avg. down. so I will hold for some time.

once again thanks for the info.

20Advice on SHL... Empty Re: Advice on SHL... Mon Nov 18, 2013 6:28 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
[quote="UKboy"]

However above that depends on your ability to buy more, how long u can hold it. I would wait until they release the report.  Only health sector outperform last time so far.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/1075_1384766713252.pdf

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