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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CFVF Results

CFVF Results

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1CFVF Results Empty CFVF Results Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:41 am

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
http://cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/698_1384509503.pdf

Moderate or below expectations. Had an idea for a re-entry, but not in the near future as per results.

2CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Wed Dec 18, 2013 5:58 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@seek wrote:http://cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/698_1384509503.pdf

Moderate or below expectations. Had an idea for a re-entry, but not in the near future as per results.

Nov 18, 2013 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's Treasuries yields plunged across maturities for the second week in a row, with the 12-month rate falling 62 basis points to 8.53 percent, data from the state debt office showed.

The 6-month yield fell 29 basis points to 8.19 percent. The 3-month yield fell 12 basis points to 7.73 percent.
In the secondary market also one year bill traded around 8.60 percent dealers said.

Sri Lanka's credit growth is weak and the finances of state enterprises, a key user of unproductive credit has also declined.

In money markets excess liquidity fell 42 billion rupees to 13.6 billion Tuesday, indicating a foreign debt repayment.

The Central Bank has been intervening heavily in forex markets not allowing the rupee to appreciate in recent weeks.
Corrected 3-month rate down 63bp
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Re CFVF - Order Book getting activated again. So far, it has been a good year for CFVF although not yet reflected in six months interim results. If you compare with One Year Debenture interest of 12-15 %, i think you could make that return in a very much lesser time (maybe in 2 months) with CFVF (at current price).

ex Rs 2/- dividend, it corrected to Rs 14.50 from Rs 19.00 and today done at Rs 17.00  

@ seek, dont play hide & seek much longer !  Smile

3CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Wed Dec 18, 2013 11:48 pm

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Check on the Orient Finance losses reflected in the P&L

4CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Thu Dec 19, 2013 12:31 am

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Hawk Eye wrote:Check on the Orient Finance losses reflected in the P&L

Thats not a big deal. it is simply a mark to market loss with no cash flow implications.
CFVF owns approx 23 mill ORIN shares which have traded in 2013 between Rs 17.50 and Rs 13.
it closed at Rs 14 on 30th Sept and was probably Rs 14.90 on 31st march 2013, hence the approx Rs 20 mill loss when you mark to market Rs 0.90 into 23 million shares.

ORIN results down simply because of a net Rs 55 mill Provision for Impairment which may or may not be reversed, in the future.

5CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Thu Dec 19, 2013 10:36 am

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@The Alchemist wrote:
@Hawk Eye wrote:Check on the Orient Finance losses reflected in the P&L

Thats not a big deal. it is simply a mark to market loss with no cash flow implications.
CFVF owns approx 23 mill ORIN shares which have traded in 2013 between Rs 17.50 and Rs 13.
it closed at Rs 14 on 30th Sept and was probably Rs 14.90 on 31st march 2013, hence the approx Rs 20 mill loss when you mark to market Rs 0.90 into 23 million shares.

ORIN results down simply because of a net Rs 55 mill Provision for Impairment which may or may not be reversed, in the future.

How does the Bonds generates cashflows for CFVF ?

6CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Thu Dec 19, 2013 12:18 pm

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
Brokers have been hunting for large parcels the last few weeks. (source, own experience)

7CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Thu Dec 19, 2013 3:09 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Can somebody explain why this company gains when int rates are low?

8CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Thu Dec 19, 2013 3:40 pm

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Its true that there is a inverse relationship between bonds and interest rates, but I cant understand the connection between CFVF and Interest rates. If someone justifies that because of interest rates are comming down and the value of CFVF bond portfolio going up, for me its compensating the interest income with capital gains of Bond value.

On the other hand  because of the  interest rates comming down and argued that the margin trading activity will get a boosted and so the bottom line of CFVF, yes that makes some sense. But for CFVF its not happening that way yet.

Of the last 06 qtr reports , September is the worst. Can anyone justify that the Decmber will be the best

9CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Thu Dec 19, 2013 5:20 pm

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@The Alchemist wrote:

@ seek, dont play hide & seek much longer !  Smile

Thanks. Got the message Smile

10CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Thu Dec 19, 2013 11:42 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:Can somebody explain why this company gains when int rates are low?
You mean TB rates neda?? I thought I only was confused.

11CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Sun Dec 22, 2013 4:22 am

NUINTH


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
CFVF saved my portfolio last few quarters. According to the current trend I feel next 2 quarters will be interesting.

Discls : Holding CFVF.

12CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Wed Jan 29, 2014 1:22 pm

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
So whats the target ? I am aiming for 24/=

13CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Wed Jan 29, 2014 1:27 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Backstage even looking at NAV that is reasonable target. But if you look ar CFVF history, and i if they did their job properly again to repeat , EPS can go to very high levels in coming quarters. Before a split, CFVF had given Rs 15 dividend some years ago. The share apparently was at around present levels and it shot up to Rs 60-70 .

I am not sure , whether can repeat any where near but am just saying the potential.





@Backstage wrote:So whats the target ? I am aiming for 24/=

14CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Wed Jan 29, 2014 1:37 pm

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
@slstock wrote:Backstage even looking at NAV that is reasonable target.  But if you look ar CFVF history, and i if they did their job properly again to repeat , EPS can go to very high levels in coming quarters.  Before a split, CFVF had  given Rs 15 dividend some years ago.  The share apparently was at around present levels and it shot up to Rs 60-70 .

I am not sure , whether can repeat any where near but am just saying the potential.  





@Backstage wrote:So whats the target ? I am aiming for 24/=

Wasn't there a split at some point after it went over 80 or so ?

Thanks to Chinwi and Alchemist I entered at 12.60 /13.00, pocketed the 2/ div. Anxious to close at right time as this is going to give me a chance to reorganize my pf for this year. Greed has done me bad before and made me suffer for long periods. Dec quarter should be good. Will take a call then.

15CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Wed Jan 29, 2014 1:45 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
If you look at my post, I did mention a split.

Well I think they can gain  better  in next quarter/s from the interest rate drops.   They need to optimize time to dispose.

Seems you are rich now  x00000 shares  haha
Sadly my holding is only a small fraction of it  in Rs 12+  

I sold a few thousand  to realize some profit  at around Rs 16 ( first time it  ran from Rs 11 to 16 before dividend) . Maybe I should have held those also.




@Backstage wrote:
@slstock wrote:Backstage even looking at NAV that is reasonable target.  But if you look ar CFVF history, and i if they did their job properly again to repeat , EPS can go to very high levels in coming quarters.  Before a split, CFVF had  given Rs 15 dividend some years ago.  The share apparently was at around present levels and it shot up to Rs 60-70 .

I am not sure , whether can repeat any where near but am just saying the potential.  





@Backstage wrote:So whats the target ? I am aiming for 24/=

Wasn't there a split at some point after it went over 80 or so ?

Thanks to Chinwi and Alchemist I entered at 12.60 /13.00, pocketed the 2/ div. Anxious to close at right time as this is going to give me a chance to reorganize my pf for this year. Greed has done me bad before and made me suffer for long periods. Dec quarter should be good. Will take a call then.

16CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Wed Jan 29, 2014 1:55 pm

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
Sorry dindt read properly (even after what DG said) CFVF and MORI is what brought me back to green after the slog years. The memory of not selling JINS at 23/ still haunts me.

Last quarter was the steepest drop in rates right ? more so than the Jan drop.

17CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Wed Jan 29, 2014 1:58 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Yes, mea Cupla too. Then I rotated my JINS to CFVF at the right time which helped me.



@Backstage wrote:The memory of not selling JINS at 23/ still haunts me.

18CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Sat Feb 01, 2014 1:15 am

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Hawk Eye wrote:Its true that there is a inverse relationship between bonds and interest rates, but I cant understand the connection between CFVF and Interest rates. If someone justifies that because of interest rates are comming down and the value of CFVF bond portfolio going up, for me its compensating the interest income with capital gains of Bond value.

On the other hand  because of the  interest rates comming down and argued that the margin trading activity will get a boosted and so the bottom line of CFVF, yes that makes some sense. But for CFVF its not happening that way yet.

Of the last 06 qtr reports , September is the worst. Can anyone justify that the Decmber will be the best

Did they prove anything with the falling interest rate for December Qtr. Its been worse

19CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Sat Feb 01, 2014 7:59 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
I am not sure how accounting is done. Maybe accountant here can explain more.

Somewhere the TB rate drop from 10+ to 7 have to be considered/reflected. Okay between Sept- Dec 31st it dropped from 10 + to about 8%. So is the value gain just 111 million for assets over 10 Billion ? Now TB rate at 7%

I expect somehow their earnings to surpass last years by March 31st 2014. Looking at history, their QoQ income differs.

I see in Dec they increased their investments . If they know what they are doing , they would have a reason to do that. Jehan appears to be a capable guy ( I don;t know for sure)


Foregin holding increased a little by about 200000 shares this week.

Also the Corporate Debt, Share trading profits should pick up if rest of this year will be active. They are also looking at being an Investment bank .



@Hawk Eye wrote:
@Hawk Eye wrote:Its true that there is a inverse relationship between bonds and interest rates, but I cant understand the connection between CFVF and Interest rates. If someone justifies that because of interest rates are comming down and the value of CFVF bond portfolio going up, for me its compensating the interest income with capital gains of Bond value.

On the other hand  because of the  interest rates comming down and argued that the margin trading activity will get a boosted and so the bottom line of CFVF, yes that makes some sense. But for CFVF its not happening that way yet.

Of the last 06 qtr reports , September is the worst. Can anyone justify that the Decmber will be the best

Did they prove anything with the falling interest rate for December Qtr. Its been worse

20CFVF Results Empty Re: CFVF Results Sat Feb 01, 2014 8:19 am

econ

econ
Global Moderator
@slstock wrote:I am not sure how accounting is done.  Maybe accountant here can explain more.

Somewhere the  TB rate drop from 10+ to 7 have to be considered/reflected.  Okay between Sept- Dec 31st it dropped from 10 + to about 8%.  So is the value gain just 111 million for assets over 10 Billion ?   Now TB rate at 7%  




@Hawk Eye wrote:
@Hawk Eye wrote:Its true that there is a inverse relationship between bonds and interest rates, but I cant understand the connection between CFVF and Interest rates. If someone justifies that because of interest rates are comming down and the value of CFVF bond portfolio going up, for me its compensating the interest income with capital gains of Bond value.

On the other hand  because of the  interest rates comming down and argued that the margin trading activity will get a boosted and so the bottom line of CFVF, yes that makes some sense. But for CFVF its not happening that way yet.

Of the last 06 qtr reports , September is the worst. Can anyone justify that the Decmber will be the best

Did they prove anything with the falling interest rate for December Qtr. Its been worse

Did you see the assets value in the balance sheets?? financial investments held for trading increase from 7 billion to 12 billion. So when they sell these investments, that may reflect in the income statement.

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