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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » No super Sept , No super October and No November ? I quit?

No super Sept , No super October and No November ? I quit?

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Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
I see the forum is on its limbs these days.  So is CSE.  Nobody is sure what direction CSE will go.

So  though I should   note the below during bad times to add some Saline.


Sept Quarter for 2013 was one of the worst performing quarters  by overall companies at CSE  I have seen in recent years ( if we take YoY).

But within  the dark cloud,  there can be a silver lining that can become gold one day ( let not talk GOld now right?)


1)  Most companies have grown their Revenue by large margin. But the on profits it does not show.  This is due to lower consumer demand economy ( local and global) ,  higher loans and finance costs  , exchange rate mismatches , restructuring and gold price drops. Ask your self this, if these companies are strong , in the future can the high revenue growth be translated to higher profit?  If yes, ask which companies and stufy. This is the time.

2) During these bad times, some companies has shown exceptional profit.  Great. But don;t get carried way  with all of them thinking they are long term shares.  Some may show cyclic profit and others due to capitalizing on current commodity prices.

3) Some Banks and Finance companies have grown considerably  but they are  showing flat or lower profit than  last year.   Note that many of these banks/companies might be suffering from adjusting to loans given at higher interest times and drop in gold prices.  This can be temporary mismatch as long as the companies are strong.    Look at their deposit and loan book growth, CB ratios and  growth in income. Can they perform better in coming quarters?

4) Some Industries are hit severely by high energy and  finance costs and lower consumer demand.  With expected economic boom Government is shooting for ( thats why CB is cutting rates)  which of these companies can  prosper.  


So during these bad times study and select  these companies and all I can say is

  " Dura ballana , langa no ballana"  (  Look at long  term result and not short term) . ( Advice given to Prince Deegayu )


Hint: No market will drop continuously and no market will rise continuously. So within shorter term market dropping a lot further or turning around for a rise has better probability as of now?


Further note :

* There are far too many companies still trading below NAV and PE of 10 with temprary profit hits

* If you cannot bare this market , then you are a short term trader and not an investor.  So you have to adjust your strategies to that of a trader.
Better yet , invest in  some Fixed deposits and debentures etc.   Never put all your Money to CSE.  Don;t put to CSE what you cannot loose.
Always have some short term and long term Money in bank.

* If you are long term investor,  some shares prices are giving you  maybe once in a life time opportunity thanks  to panic sellers .
Be smart to identify them and do the needful.



Last edited by slstock on Mon Nov 18, 2013 1:27 pm; edited 1 time in total

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator
Sounds like 'go back to your seats: fasten your seat belts: ASI is going to dive from 6,000 to 5,000 !, NOW!!

Is it?

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
As usual good advice, but most of the CSE participants are not that much clever to read between lines. May be curse or ego?

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

kalum


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks guys for valuable inputs, as per my personal studies i dont see market to be fall under 5.6k region for any circumstance. May be i am week in analysis. Not for highlight here or for any arguments Smile, but it sounds like 2014 first Q is start of new era in CSE.

If i read SLS correctly, your message is to be patient during this period and there might be good chances for some selected counters in short-mid term.

Am i missing something here?

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Though they were not supper September or October, those two months were fairly good. Short term investments were given good returns. There were plenty of trading opportunities. Most of the retail counters had a good run.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Err Nope ;-)

@hunter wrote:Sounds like 'go back to your seats: fasten your seat belts: ASI is going to dive from 6,000 to 5,000 !, NOW!!

Is it?

prasadrmb

prasadrmb
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks SLS for early reminder

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Usually there is atleast a small run before budget. This yeat no go.


It seems there is lot of negative feeling about " increase of taxes" and the rather negative Sept companies results.

There is a limit to increase taxes. The VAT imposed on Financial institutions during war times is still there . Increasing taxes to hurt companies and burden already hit individuals is not the way to solve this revenue issue. It is to promote better environment for business by making it easier to start and conduct business, better rule of law and transparency, reduce red tape, reduce unnecessary/too many taxes and combine it as slabs etc.

It time Govenment realize that more prosperous people means country gets prosperous faster than letting few individuals to become richer.

Hope this budget is thought long term and not on impulse to solve short term issues to kill the lower and middle class people and businesses.

Maybe it is reasonable to think about Execise tax but increasing corporate taxes and taxes that affect normal citizens is suicide.

There is limot people can be pushed . The unbelievable and totally unreasonable electricity increase was a mssive blow. Thanks to mismanagment at CEB and petrolium see how the whole country was affected.



wappula

wappula
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
hmmm.. I can understand what you ware trying to say..scratch 

thank you sls..

econ

econ
Global Moderator
I have predicted this low profit margins for companies early this year.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
What do you predict for future quarter and 2014/15 financial year?

@econ wrote:I have predicted this low profit margins for companies early this year.

econ

econ
Global Moderator
@slstock wrote:What do you predict for  future quarter and 2014/15 financial year?

@econ wrote:I have predicted this low profit margins for companies early this year.
next quarter may be good for tourism industry. but for others like banks, finance companies would not be that good. Most banks, finance companies are going for debts because their financial position is not that good. I have a fear of occurring debt crisis near future if they do not properly handle public debt.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Are you sure about the banks and finance sector ( specially the better managed ones) ? From time to time, they need to refuel their capital isn;t it . This year it hDebenture issue and borrowing from aborad they go that chance. But yes some companies gave 5 year debentures at 18-20% . Th
ese companies needs to be more careful.



@econ wrote:
@slstock wrote:What do you predict for  future quarter and 2014/15 financial year?

@econ wrote:I have predicted this low profit margins for companies early this year.
next quarter may be good for tourism industry. but for others like banks, finance companies would not be  that good. Most banks, finance companies are going for debts because their financial position is not that good. I have a fear of occurring debt crisis near future if they do not properly handle public debt.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Ah pre - budget arousal?

Seems a bit of a trend is forming. But too early to tell through. Let see.





@slstock wrote:Usually there is atleast a small run before budget. This yeat no go.


It seems  there is lot of negative feeling about  " increase of taxes"   and the  rather negative Sept companies results.

There is a limit to increase taxes.   The VAT imposed on Financial institutions  during war times is still there .  Increasing taxes  to hurt companies and burden already hit individuals is not the way to solve this revenue issue.    It is to promote better  environment for business by making it easier to start and conduct business, better rule of law and transparency,  reduce red tape, reduce unnecessary/too many  taxes and combine it as slabs etc.

It time Govenment  realize that more prosperous people means country gets prosperous faster than letting few individuals to become richer.

Hope this budget is  thought long term and not on impulse to solve short term issues to  kill the lower and middle class people  and businesses.

Maybe it is reasonable to think about Execise tax but increasing corporate taxes and taxes that affect normal citizens is suicide.  

There is limot people can be pushed . The unbelievable and totally unreasonable  electricity increase was a mssive blow. Thanks to mismanagment at CEB and petrolium see how the whole country was affected.



prabath


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Ah  pre - budget arousal?  

Seems a bit of a trend is forming. But  too early to tell through. Let see.





@slstock wrote:Usually there is atleast a small run before budget. This yeat no go.


It seems  there is lot of negative feeling about  " increase of taxes"   and the  rather negative Sept companies results.

There is a limit to increase taxes.   The VAT imposed on Financial institutions  during war times is still there .  Increasing taxes  to hurt companies and burden already hit individuals is not the way to solve this revenue issue.    It is to promote better  environment for business by making it easier to start and conduct business, better rule of law and transparency,  reduce red tape, reduce unnecessary/too many  taxes and combine it as slabs etc.

It time Govenment  realize that more prosperous people means country gets prosperous faster than letting few individuals to become richer.

Hope this budget is  thought long term and not on impulse to solve short term issues to  kill the lower and middle class people  and businesses.

Maybe it is reasonable to think about Execise tax but increasing corporate taxes and taxes that affect normal citizens is suicide.  

There is limot people can be pushed . The unbelievable and totally unreasonable  electricity increase was a mssive blow. Thanks to mismanagment at CEB and petrolium see how the whole country was affected.



Trend are formed by controllers.If they want red will be given tomorrow.This a fact evryone shd understnd.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Prabath, controllers can control to one level to play with minds. Not all shares at CSE.

If any fundamental liquid share get outside/internal interest for some continous period with large volume of shares it will not be easy to push down .

Take DIST , CFIN for example.



@prabath wrote:
@slstock wrote:Ah  pre - budget arousal?  

Seems a bit of a trend is forming. But  too early to tell through. Let see.





@slstock wrote:Usually there is atleast a small run before budget. This yeat no go.


It seems  there is lot of negative feeling about  " increase of taxes"   and the  rather negative Sept companies results.

There is a limit to increase taxes.   The VAT imposed on Financial institutions  during war times is still there .  Increasing taxes  to hurt companies and burden already hit individuals is not the way to solve this revenue issue.    It is to promote better  environment for business by making it easier to start and conduct business, better rule of law and transparency,  reduce red tape, reduce unnecessary/too many  taxes and combine it as slabs etc.

It time Govenment  realize that more prosperous people means country gets prosperous faster than letting few individuals to become richer.

Hope this budget is  thought long term and not on impulse to solve short term issues to  kill the lower and middle class people  and businesses.

Maybe it is reasonable to think about Execise tax but increasing corporate taxes and taxes that affect normal citizens is suicide.  

There is limot people can be pushed . The unbelievable and totally unreasonable  electricity increase was a mssive blow. Thanks to mismanagment at CEB and petrolium see how the whole country was affected.



Trend are formed by controllers.If they want red will be given tomorrow.This a fact evryone shd understnd.

prabath


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Prabath,  controllers can control to one level to play with minds. Not all shares at CSE.

If any fundamental liquid share get outside/internal  interest  for some continous period with large volume of shares it will not be easy to push down .

Take DIST , CFIN for example.



@prabath wrote:
@slstock wrote:Ah  pre - budget arousal?  

Seems a bit of a trend is forming. But  too early to tell through. Let see.





@slstock wrote:Usually there is atleast a small run before budget. This yeat no go.


It seems  there is lot of negative feeling about  " increase of taxes"   and the  rather negative Sept companies results.

There is a limit to increase taxes.   The VAT imposed on Financial institutions  during war times is still there .  Increasing taxes  to hurt companies and burden already hit individuals is not the way to solve this revenue issue.    It is to promote better  environment for business by making it easier to start and conduct business, better rule of law and transparency,  reduce red tape, reduce unnecessary/too many  taxes and combine it as slabs etc.

It time Govenment  realize that more prosperous people means country gets prosperous faster than letting few individuals to become richer.

Hope this budget is  thought long term and not on impulse to solve short term issues to  kill the lower and middle class people  and businesses.

Maybe it is reasonable to think about Execise tax but increasing corporate taxes and taxes that affect normal citizens is suicide.  

There is limot people can be pushed . The unbelievable and totally unreasonable  electricity increase was a mssive blow. Thanks to mismanagment at CEB and petrolium see how the whole country was affected.



Trend are formed by controllers.If they want red will be given tomorrow.This a fact evryone shd understnd.
It is happening in two ways.The index and each share.Almost every share has a controlling party.And one of your examples CFIN is trading at a fake price now.It was stable 180 and then move to 190.Now its controlled down to 175.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Any share can have natural market fluctuations time to time. I don;t see 10% up or down as a manipulation by a controller. CFIN profit were flat this time. So there can be some seller who wanted to exit. Its not the top holder is dragging the price down intentionally. We should not be confused.


But yes some speculative shares can be easier to manipulate and have big time manipulators who plays with minds. When TWOD goes to Rs 2.4 and 3.5 next day thats day light manipulation. But we cannot confuse that with CFIN which dropped to Rs 175 from Rs 190 over 5 months. DIST, NTB, COMB as more examples.


But as you say if one big party wants to create negagtivity ( or positivity) to effect the whole market they can try by giving an overall negative feeling playing shrewdly with high caps that can move index . Many people looking at this, panic and sell their solid share below value .

This is easier to do in small markets like CSE. Harder to do at big markets.


No one can hold a value share below its value over long term ( except maybe the top holder selling continiously little by little) even if they try to control. That what I want to say.



@prabath wrote:
@slstock wrote:Prabath,  controllers can control to one level to play with minds. Not all shares at CSE.

If any fundamental liquid share get outside/internal  interest  for some continous period with large volume of shares it will not be easy to push down .

Take DIST , CFIN for example.



@prabath wrote:
@slstock wrote:Ah  pre - budget arousal?  

Seems a bit of a trend is forming. But  too early to tell through. Let see.





@slstock wrote:Usually there is atleast a small run before budget. This yeat no go.


It seems  there is lot of negative feeling about  " increase of taxes"   and the  rather negative Sept companies results.

There is a limit to increase taxes.   The VAT imposed on Financial institutions  during war times is still there .  Increasing taxes  to hurt companies and burden already hit individuals is not the way to solve this revenue issue.    It is to promote better  environment for business by making it easier to start and conduct business, better rule of law and transparency,  reduce red tape, reduce unnecessary/too many  taxes and combine it as slabs etc.

It time Govenment  realize that more prosperous people means country gets prosperous faster than letting few individuals to become richer.

Hope this budget is  thought long term and not on impulse to solve short term issues to  kill the lower and middle class people  and businesses.

Maybe it is reasonable to think about Execise tax but increasing corporate taxes and taxes that affect normal citizens is suicide.  

There is limot people can be pushed . The unbelievable and totally unreasonable  electricity increase was a mssive blow. Thanks to mismanagment at CEB and petrolium see how the whole country was affected.



Trend are formed by controllers.If they want red will be given tomorrow.This a fact evryone shd understnd.
It is happening in two ways.The index and each share.Almost every share has a controlling party.And one of your examples CFIN is trading at a fake price now.It was stable 180 and then move to 190.Now its controlled down to 175.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
People who pay attention during these dull times can be rewarded handsomely.

I sense many shares are near their bottoms. But they are not exploding  due to overall dull market and the fact that no one want to commit to push  ( except one of 2 shares)  Maybe one by one few can be more.

On example was ECL .  A share missed by many of us.   There are many fundamentally better shares than ECL but seems continous good news and pushes upped this share.   Only one in its  sector now ( which does have a threat of shutting down)


Some shares which gave positive results ( both revenue and profit) prices are going down ??


Time to figure future "menik"

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
"People who pay attention during these dull
times can be rewarded handsomely."

exactly true, so we must have money to buy at dull times. for that we have to sell and keep in cash Smile

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