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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » ABAN, seems to be good

ABAN, seems to be good

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21ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:55 pm

UAEBOY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I am in at 107-108 study 

22ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Thu Nov 21, 2013 9:10 pm

nalaka_sg


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
when market start to run...it will be too late to catch this bus..study

23ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Thu Nov 21, 2013 11:10 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@nalaka_sg wrote:when market start to run...it will be too late to catch this bus..study
no Nalaka it definitely will give another chance around 100.00

24ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Fri Nov 22, 2013 12:10 am

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@UAEBOY wrote:I am in at 107-108 study 
Were u da one who bought by 20 and 50 qtyss????...Smile

25ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Fri Nov 22, 2013 1:13 am

UAEBOY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Jana1 wrote:
@UAEBOY wrote:I am in at 107-108 study 
Were u da one who bought by 20 and 50 qtyss????...Smile
No ....Surprised 

I think those are collectors..
They are executing nice strategy to collect....(20 -50 qts)Wink 

@ Jana1

I think they will collect at least up to 120lkr during first phase..Very Happy 
What u say...
Also ,
Did u sell your whole lot which you bought below 95 during last bull run....?

Below is couple of discussions about ABAN.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t28823-interim-financial-statements-31-03-2013-aban?highlight=aban
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t29025-final-chance-to-buy-aban?highlight=aban

26ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Fri Nov 22, 2013 5:52 am

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
No No... I have good qty now. But no idea to sell...I am quite happy with Abans performance and have good stories about 2009 rally. I knw da guys who got exit at 80 lvl befr 2010 capitalisation 1:1, finally it reached rs.700 (pre capitalisation price) So guys exit at 80 thought they booked 100% profit but they missed another 10 times profit...Abans is capable of making annual EPS 30-50 range..So it could be pushed more than 250 lvl, not in short term.. by booking profit I don't wanna lose the future opportunity...Smile, With Abans I made over 300% profit during 2010 rallies...

Yea.. That is good strategy to make brokers that this is manipulation by buying 20 odd qtys.. Most brokers said that this is manipulation, but they would be happy to buy at 135 lvl...Good qty he collected....

27ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Fri Nov 22, 2013 6:24 am

dhanurrox


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Jana1 wrote:No No... I have good qty now. But no idea to sell...I am quite happy with Abans performance and have good stories about 2009 rally. I knw da guys who got exit at 80 lvl befr 2010 capitalisation 1:1, finally it reached rs.700 (pre capitalisation price) So guys exit at 80 thought they booked 100% profit but they missed another 10 times profit...Abans is capable of making annual EPS 30-50 range..So it could be pushed more than 250 lvl, not in short term.. by booking profit I don't wanna lose the future opportunity...Smile, With Abans I made over 300% profit during 2010 rallies...

Yea.. That is good strategy to make brokers that this is manipulation by buying 20 odd qtys.. Most brokers said that this is manipulation, but they would be happy to buy at 135 lvl...Good qty he collected....
Don't sell,last time I was in at 90's and it went to 170.I wasn't in it all the way.Sad 

28ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Mon Nov 25, 2013 3:59 pm

Sanjaya Gunarathna


Stock Trader
Seems like ABAN run is over. No serious buyers now. Could have sold some at 110. Was it a collection buy a big one?

29ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Mon Nov 25, 2013 11:03 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Sanjaya Gunarathna wrote:Seems like ABAN run is over. No serious buyers now. Could have sold some at 110. Was it a collection buy a big one?
It is giving another chance. Next quarter would be better for ABANS. I hope to collect.

30ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Wed Nov 27, 2013 11:21 pm

UAEBOY

UAEBOY
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
It is not yet over ...Very Happy 
Nobody wants to sell below 120 Wink 
Interesting to see coming weeks...
(Parabolic BUY signal still valid,RSI also neutral 59)
Suspect

31ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Thu Nov 28, 2013 2:19 am

UAEBOY

UAEBOY
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Jana1 wrote:No No... I have good qty now. But no idea to sell...I am quite happy with Abans performance and have good stories about 2009 rally. I knw da guys who got exit at 80 lvl befr 2010 capitalisation 1:1, finally it reached rs.700 (pre capitalisation price) So guys exit at 80 thought they booked 100% profit but they missed another 10 times profit...Abans is capable of making annual EPS 30-50 range..So it could be pushed more than 250 lvl, not in short term.. by booking profit I don't wanna lose the future opportunity...Smile, With Abans I made over 300% profit during 2010 rallies...

Yea.. That is good strategy to make brokers that this is manipulation by buying 20 odd qtys.. Most brokers said that this is manipulation, but they would be happy to buy at 135 lvl...Good qty he collected....
If ABAN break 113 -115 (Closing Price) this time it will at least touch 125-130.... Basketball

32ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:29 pm

Sanjaya Gunarathna


Stock Trader
Today again Aban was active. Last couple of weeks little bit of movement was there. Thought of buying. But as there was big selling at 110 didnt think it will break this easily.Is it good to buy now? Or will come below 110 levels? Please advice.

33ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Fri Jan 10, 2014 6:24 pm

ranga


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

Still some one selling ABAN ,due to that this share stuck between 110- 115.

34ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Fri Jan 10, 2014 6:32 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Hope it is not that director son of Mrs Abans. Way to kill a share at PE of 5 and 70% of NAV

@ranga wrote:
Still some one selling ABAN ,due to that this share stuck between 110- 115.

35ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Fri Jan 10, 2014 6:57 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Hope it is not that director son of Mrs Abans. Way to kill a share at PE of 5 and 70% of NAV

@ranga wrote:
Still some one selling ABAN ,due to that this share stuck between 110- 115.

i doubt it is Behman Pestonjee selling like earlier, as it would require disclosure. didn't they recently change the rule that requires disclosure within 2 days ?

maybe the earlier buyers at 150-175 are now selling / forced to sell ? maybe the sellers at 160-175 are looking to buy again ? Wink

36ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Fri Jan 10, 2014 7:02 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Well yes, but at CSE if only all people followed rules. But you are right it may not be the Behman this time.

It could well be people who are selling their bonus shares. Once this selling is over and if ABANs keep reporting Rs 5 Eps atleast in coming quarters, people will chase this share even when it is Rs 200 ( in a bull market).



@The Alchemist wrote:
@slstock wrote:Hope it is not that director son of Mrs Abans. Way to kill a share at PE of 5 and 70% of NAV


i doubt it is Behman Pestonjee selling like earlier, as it would require disclosure. didn't they recently change the rule that requires disclosure within 2 days ?

37ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Sat Jan 11, 2014 3:36 am

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Well yes, but at CSE  if only all people followed rules.    But you are right it may not be the Behman this time.

It could well be people  who are selling their bonus shares.  Once this selling is over and if ABANs keep reporting Rs 5 Eps atleast in coming quarters,  people will chase this share even when it is Rs 200 ( in a bull market).



@The Alchemist wrote:
@slstock wrote:Hope it is not that director son of Mrs Abans. Way to kill a share at PE of 5 and 70% of NAV


i doubt it is Behman Pestonjee selling like earlier, as it would require disclosure. didn't they recently change the rule that requires disclosure within 2 days ?


Don't you think seller and the buyer is a same guy (broker firm)?? They were shifting in between people accounts.. How could seller and the buyer comes immediately while other time  it appears empty. Why 20odd qtys are being executed?? I felt sum sort of dumping....

If sum1 else is selling probably JB cocoshell in the selling side (Just 50k qty).. Behman selling side would be less possible one. He may wanna keep few qtys in his card..Now Abans family qty is around 55.4%; I don't think Abans family would like sell it anymore..



Last edited by Jana1 on Sat Jan 11, 2014 3:46 am; edited 1 time in total

38ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Sat Jan 11, 2014 3:39 am

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Hope it is not that director son of Mrs Abans. Way to kill a share at PE of 5 and 70% of NAV

@ranga wrote:
Still some one selling ABAN ,due to that this share stuck between 110- 115.

I am afraid 70% of NAV was not restated in terms of adjusted new issue of qts..I guess, Now almost NAV-115.

What I felt was, they wanna keep this counter active becz to attract debenture issueed by its parent company... But not sure what its consequence is..

39ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Sat Jan 11, 2014 7:50 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Jana1

Point. After bonus NAV should be diluted to about 115. Anyway PBV of 1 and PE of 6 should be still attractive. They have reduced their borrowings by 50% ( 400 mil) from June. If they keep the same debt level ( or better yet reduce it) with interest rates coming down, the bottom line profit would reflect it. Revune has grown a lot from last year but did not translate to gross profit yet. If they can, it will be healthier for them.


Has your opinion below  from Late Nov changed ?  Debenture push or not , this is still a fundamental.  Hope Dec quarter they report atleast rs 5 eps after bonus.  




"Of course not immediate push...I guess they r predicting uptrend during December or January...But buying at cheap is good...

If they collect 300k below 130,they can push to over 180-220 lvl with another 150-200k qtyy...

If they push or not, who cares since it is fundamentally sound stock selling at cheap...Smile, Isn't it??
I love to buy even at 130 lvl, if i left with money..."



Last edited by slstock on Sat Jan 11, 2014 8:16 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : added more info)

40ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Sat Jan 11, 2014 7:54 am

dhanurrox


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Jana don't try to predict pump and dump by looking at the order books and traded quantities,I saw yesterday you referring HUEJ also.There's lot more things happening inside.
Ex:I'm mentioning ECL for sometime.What a run it had.Is it dumped?No
Still pumped.

41ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Sat Jan 11, 2014 4:14 pm

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@dhanurrox wrote:Jana don't try to predict pump and dump by looking at the order books and traded quantities,I saw yesterday you referring HUEJ also.There's lot more things happening inside.
Ex:I'm mentioning ECL for sometime.What a run it had.Is it dumped?No
Still pumped.

Mate, Jana1 and Jana is two different people; Don't confuse with him/her. I am Jana1. Jana is most likely with speculative counters.. I am not sure what he/she put about HUEJ and ECL..

I don't predict anything speculative which is useless...

Regarding ur ECL prediction, that is bullshit... People simply multiply its one off profit to compensate their mind that they are buying fundamental...I vaguely remember ECL NAV was around 1.2.

Can I ask u in which basis u recommend ECL sometimes ago?? R u the guy who is behind this counter? If u r not ur expectation is baseless... Just for some reasons it is being pushed up.. If their profit reduces this counter will come back to 5 level...

42ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Sat Jan 11, 2014 4:59 pm

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Jana1

Point. After bonus NAV should be diluted to about 115. Anyway PBV of 1 and PE of 6 should be still attractive.  They have reduced their borrowings by 50%  ( 400 mil) from June. If they keep the same debt level ( or better yet reduce it) with interest rates coming down, the bottom line profit would reflect it. Revune has grown a lot from last year but did not translate to gross profit yet. If they can, it will be healthier for them.


Has your opinion below  from Late Nov changed ?  Debenture push or not , this is still a fundamental.  Hope Dec quarter they report atleast rs 5 eps after bonus.  




"Of course not immediate push...I guess they r predicting uptrend during December or January...But buying at cheap is good...

If they collect 300k below 130,they can push to over 180-220 lvl with another 150-200k qtyy...

If they push or not, who cares since it is fundamentally sound stock selling at cheap...Smile, Isn't it??
I love to buy even at 130 lvl, if i left with money..."

slstock,
I am pretty optimistic with this counter.. I am also very long term investor. What puzzled me was their execution of odd qtys..Recent aday they executed over 30k shares most of them were just 50 odd. Just I warned for traders..It can definitely give at-least 50% return sooner.

Yes, Bottom line improvement was fantastic.. I remember similar situation during 2010, when it had rally from 70 to 250 lvl- their finance cost was dramatically reduced..

If I talk about price history versus its net assets and reported earnings : its last 10 years avg. PE was 8 and PAV of 1.28. with the annual PE of 20 and 115 NAV, it is worth up to 150.

Probably their new debenture would have some impact, but not clear..

And also note, when mkt is down the guy is executing large qtys when the mkt is up he kept silent... This was the case of EAST and BFL befr its big run... May be collecting qtys still.. The trend is only clear if it pass 120 lvl and stagnate sumwhr... Let cc...

43ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Sat Jan 11, 2014 5:32 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
I have this stock and don;t plan to dispose if not an emergency or reverse in profit performance.

I mentioned the below theory 2 months ago . Maybe it still holds with regard to sellling .


"Btw, there were about 850000 share released at the Bonus issue. Out of the 30% public holding say 50% like to sell their bonus shares cheap. That leaves about 120000 shares that maybe sold cheap. Withing the last 3 days itself about 50000 share traded. After bonus shares came to market It appear rought about 80000-90000 shares were sold.

So few more days of selling and a better Dec quarter( hopefully) can make this share jump price big time. ( not a buy recommendation but an observation based on analysis) ."





My recent observation on buying pattern is such: I have seen big orders appear when market seems positive and share jumps about Rs 5. Suddenly within the same day , when it goes a bit negative the big buy orders dissapaear and some sell orders of 1000+ appear which is then bought slowly and as odd lot at timnes.

I think if we put 1 and 1 together we can understand what is going on ;-)





@Jana1 wrote:
@slstock wrote:Jana1

Point. After bonus NAV should be diluted to about 115. Anyway PBV of 1 and PE of 6 should be still attractive.  They have reduced their borrowings by 50%  ( 400 mil) from June. If they keep the same debt level ( or better yet reduce it) with interest rates coming down, the bottom line profit would reflect it. Revune has grown a lot from last year but did not translate to gross profit yet. If they can, it will be healthier for them.


Has your opinion below  from Late Nov changed ?  Debenture push or not , this is still a fundamental.  Hope Dec quarter they report atleast rs 5 eps after bonus.  




"Of course not immediate push...I guess they r predicting uptrend during December or January...But buying at cheap is good...

If they collect 300k below 130,they can push to over 180-220 lvl with another 150-200k qtyy...

If they push or not, who cares since it is fundamentally sound stock selling at cheap...Smile, Isn't it??
I love to buy even at 130 lvl, if i left with money..."

slstock,
I am pretty optimistic with this counter.. I am also very long term investor. What puzzled me was their execution of odd qtys..Recent aday they executed over 30k shares most of them were just 50 odd. Just I warned for traders..It can definitely give at-least 50% return sooner.

Yes, Bottom line improvement was fantastic.. I remember similar situation during 2010, when it had rally from 70 to 250 lvl- their finance cost was dramatically reduced..

If I talk about price history versus its net assets and reported earnings : its last 10 years avg. PE was 8 and PAV of 1.28.  with the annual PE of 20 and 115 NAV, it is worth up to 150.

Probably their new debenture would have some impact, but not clear..

And also note, when mkt is down the guy is executing large qtys when the mkt is up he kept silent... This was the case of EAST and BFL befr its big run... May be collecting qtys still.. The trend is only clear if it pass 120 lvl and stagnate sumwhr... Let cc...

44ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:35 pm

ranga


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/4991391746642_642.pdf

45ABAN, seems to be good - Page 2 Empty Re: ABAN, seems to be good Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:38 pm

ranga


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

He has 222810 shares according to last quarter report.
will this affect for share?

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