ABAN, seems to be good

Jana1 · 41 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Sat Jan 11, 2014 4:14 pm

Jana1

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 703
Join date : 2011-06-17

@dhanurrox wrote:Jana don't try to predict pump and dump by looking at the order books and traded quantities,I saw yesterday you referring HUEJ also.There's lot more things happening inside.
Ex:I'm mentioning ECL for sometime.What a run it had.Is it dumped?No
Still pumped.

Mate, Jana1 and Jana is two different people; Don't confuse with him/her. I am Jana1. Jana is most likely with speculative counters.. I am not sure what he/she put about HUEJ and ECL..

I don't predict anything speculative which is useless...

Regarding ur ECL prediction, that is bullshit... People simply multiply its one off profit to compensate their mind that they are buying fundamental...I vaguely remember ECL NAV was around 1.2.

Can I ask u in which basis u recommend ECL sometimes ago?? R u the guy who is behind this counter? If u r not ur expectation is baseless... Just for some reasons it is being pushed up.. If their profit reduces this counter will come back to 5 level...

Jana1 · 42 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Sat Jan 11, 2014 4:59 pm

Jana1

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 703
Join date : 2011-06-17

@slstock wrote:Jana1

Point. After bonus NAV should be diluted to about 115. Anyway PBV of 1 and PE of 6 should be still attractive. They have reduced their borrowings by 50% ( 400 mil) from June. If they keep the same debt level ( or better yet reduce it) with interest rates coming down, the bottom line profit would reflect it. Revune has grown a lot from last year but did not translate to gross profit yet. If they can, it will be healthier for them.

Has your opinion below from Late Nov changed ? Debenture push or not , this is still a fundamental. Hope Dec quarter they report atleast rs 5 eps after bonus.

"Of course not immediate push...I guess they r predicting uptrend during December or January...But buying at cheap is good...

If they collect 300k below 130,they can push to over 180-220 lvl with another 150-200k qtyy...

If they push or not, who cares since it is fundamentally sound stock selling at cheap...Smile, Isn't it??
I love to buy even at 130 lvl, if i left with money..."

slstock,
I am pretty optimistic with this counter.. I am also very long term investor. What puzzled me was their execution of odd qtys..Recent aday they executed over 30k shares most of them were just 50 odd. Just I warned for traders..It can definitely give at-least 50% return sooner.

Yes, Bottom line improvement was fantastic.. I remember similar situation during 2010, when it had rally from 70 to 250 lvl- their finance cost was dramatically reduced..

If I talk about price history versus its net assets and reported earnings : its last 10 years avg. PE was 8 and PAV of 1.28. with the annual PE of 20 and 115 NAV, it is worth up to 150.

Probably their new debenture would have some impact, but not clear..

And also note, when mkt is down the guy is executing large qtys when the mkt is up he kept silent... This was the case of EAST and BFL befr its big run... May be collecting qtys still.. The trend is only clear if it pass 120 lvl and stagnate sumwhr... Let cc...

Slstock · 43 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Sat Jan 11, 2014 5:32 pm

Slstock

Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 6610
Join date : 2011-01-22

I have this stock and don;t plan to dispose if not an emergency or reverse in profit performance.

I mentioned the below theory 2 months ago . Maybe it still holds with regard to sellling .

"Btw, there were about 850000 share released at the Bonus issue. Out of the 30% public holding say 50% like to sell their bonus shares cheap. That leaves about 120000 shares that maybe sold cheap. Withing the last 3 days itself about 50000 share traded. After bonus shares came to market It appear rought about 80000-90000 shares were sold.

So few more days of selling and a better Dec quarter( hopefully) can make this share jump price big time. ( not a buy recommendation but an observation based on analysis) ."

My recent observation on buying pattern is such: I have seen big orders appear when market seems positive and share jumps about Rs 5. Suddenly within the same day , when it goes a bit negative the big buy orders dissapaear and some sell orders of 1000+ appear which is then bought slowly and as odd lot at timnes.

I think if we put 1 and 1 together we can understand what is going on ;-)

@Jana1 wrote:

@slstock wrote:Jana1

Point. After bonus NAV should be diluted to about 115. Anyway PBV of 1 and PE of 6 should be still attractive. They have reduced their borrowings by 50% ( 400 mil) from June. If they keep the same debt level ( or better yet reduce it) with interest rates coming down, the bottom line profit would reflect it. Revune has grown a lot from last year but did not translate to gross profit yet. If they can, it will be healthier for them.

Has your opinion below from Late Nov changed ? Debenture push or not , this is still a fundamental. Hope Dec quarter they report atleast rs 5 eps after bonus.

"Of course not immediate push...I guess they r predicting uptrend during December or January...But buying at cheap is good...

If they collect 300k below 130,they can push to over 180-220 lvl with another 150-200k qtyy...

If they push or not, who cares since it is fundamentally sound stock selling at cheap...Smile, Isn't it??
I love to buy even at 130 lvl, if i left with money..."

slstock,
I am pretty optimistic with this counter.. I am also very long term investor. What puzzled me was their execution of odd qtys..Recent aday they executed over 30k shares most of them were just 50 odd. Just I warned for traders..It can definitely give at-least 50% return sooner.

Yes, Bottom line improvement was fantastic.. I remember similar situation during 2010, when it had rally from 70 to 250 lvl- their finance cost was dramatically reduced..

If I talk about price history versus its net assets and reported earnings : its last 10 years avg. PE was 8 and PAV of 1.28. with the annual PE of 20 and 115 NAV, it is worth up to 150.

Probably their new debenture would have some impact, but not clear..

And also note, when mkt is down the guy is executing large qtys when the mkt is up he kept silent... This was the case of EAST and BFL befr its big run... May be collecting qtys still.. The trend is only clear if it pass 120 lvl and stagnate sumwhr... Let cc...

ranga · 44 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:35 pm

ranga

Senior Equity Analytic

Posts : 54
Join date : 2011-01-31

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/4991391746642_642.pdf

ranga · 45 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:38 pm

ranga

Senior Equity Analytic

Posts : 54
Join date : 2011-01-31

He has 222810 shares according to last quarter report.
will this affect for share?

Jiggysaurus · 46 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:42 pm

Jiggysaurus

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Rusi shares wikuna Nasi?

Slstock · 47 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:45 pm

Slstock

Director - Equity Analytics

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id he wants to sell, hope he will not make an idiotic moves to sell in open market.
He could always arrange a crossing maybe with his sibling, paretns or someone else.

It not like it is a crap share.

But if this resignation was some family issue and he wants to "behave badly" then ,it will be a short term problem. I remember another director was selling in the open market.

Shameful behavior. Hope this one does do the same.

@ranga wrote:
He has 222810 shares according to last quarter report.
will this affect for share?

ranga · 48 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Tue Feb 11, 2014 6:24 pm

ranga

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http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/642_1392112189186.pdf

Slstock · 49 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Tue Feb 11, 2014 6:59 pm

Slstock

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Bonus issue increased shares by 20%.

But yes there is a drop in profits and we can't expect eps of 10+ like last year which included also some tax breaks.

Still this quarter eps is Rs 5+ ( after bonus) which is inline with my expectation of a total EPS of about Rs 20 for the year. Trades at PE of 5 and below NAV. NAV should be about Rs 120 , incorrectly stated on report.

@ranga wrote:http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/642_1392112189186.pdf

Jana1 · 50 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Thu Feb 13, 2014 3:27 pm

Jana1

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

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@slstock wrote:Bonus issue increased shares by 20%.

But yes there is a drop in profits and we can't expect eps of 10+ like last year which included also some tax breaks.

Still this quarter eps is Rs 5+ ( after bonus) which is inline with my expectation of a total EPS of about Rs 20 for the year. Trades at PE of 5 and below NAV. NAV should be about Rs 120 , incorrectly stated on report.

@ranga wrote:http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/642_1392112189186.pdf

Well said, This qtr report also inline with ur prediction...

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ABAN, seems to be good

41 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Sat Jan 11, 2014 4:14 pm

Jana1

42 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Sat Jan 11, 2014 4:59 pm

Jana1

43 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Sat Jan 11, 2014 5:32 pm

Slstock

44 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:35 pm

ranga

45 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:38 pm

ranga

46 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:42 pm

Jiggysaurus

47 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:45 pm

Slstock

48 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Tue Feb 11, 2014 6:24 pm

ranga

49 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Tue Feb 11, 2014 6:59 pm

Slstock

50 Re: ABAN, seems to be good Thu Feb 13, 2014 3:27 pm

Jana1

51 Re: ABAN, seems to be good

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