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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » The Titanic is Sinking

The Titanic is Sinking

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1The Titanic is Sinking Empty The Titanic is Sinking Tue Nov 26, 2013 9:15 pm

viper123

viper123
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Here it came sinking day by day. Any technical specialist can show us where we going to stop ?. If you look at the short term or even midterm most of the shares at discounted price. But without knowing the bottom buying is useless.

If you go through recent post of what "Kalum" posted about foreign traders,
I can see they bought shares high and sell low like Dock, LGL.x. You can check them yourself.

Are they doing this intentionally to bring down the market?

2The Titanic is Sinking Empty Re: The Titanic is Sinking Tue Nov 26, 2013 11:04 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
This is not like Titanic.Titanic sunk and gone. But CSE is like our country. Nobody can write it off. If u have cash slowly collect good shares. If already got better shares hold on.

3The Titanic is Sinking Empty Re: The Titanic is Sinking Tue Nov 26, 2013 11:25 pm

Kithsiri

Kithsiri
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
ලාබෝ අලාබෝ අයසෝ යසෝ ...! Very Happy 

@Leon wrote:If u have cash slowly collect good shares. If already got better shares hold on.

4The Titanic is Sinking Empty Re: The Titanic is Sinking Wed Nov 27, 2013 1:50 am

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
CSE just a dingi boat Razz

Big ships are around to pick it after all people jump out thinking the end Smile

5The Titanic is Sinking Empty Re: The Titanic is Sinking Wed Nov 27, 2013 3:46 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
No it is not sinking.  

Like mark said, at CSE retailers are in dingy boats. Sharks wait for them patiently to make mistakes or sink to pounce on them.  

No market can go up for too long or  go down for too long.  Market now has gone down for long time. Debentures are also not helping CSE.

If today too  is red market will be in oversold region. One of these days (sooner than later) it has to go up. Some good news to create positive sentiment can help a lot right now. Budget was not help.

6The Titanic is Sinking Empty Re: The Titanic is Sinking Wed Nov 27, 2013 6:41 am

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Why The Budget was not help ?

Most of people including economists ans Businessmen say 2014
Budget is good.

7The Titanic is Sinking Empty Re: The Titanic is Sinking Wed Nov 27, 2013 8:34 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
I was talking with a friend of mine about the down trend, the development and problems. Few ideas came up;
 
* CSE has more retailers, dumb money to wipe off..
- Ppl who bought high have been waiting for the CSE to come up and sell then say good bye or take a decision for good. These guys are still in high losses (i.e. who bought BFL - 400+, GREG - 90+ may still be there with hope) may be with less quantity now but still hoping the CSE would do miracles.
- Then there's another lot who waits for the opportunity to dump with least losses. They think CSE will never go pass 6500 and even if it does will take years. So according to their brains, an FD is a better investment.
- Another set waits at least to recover half of their losses. So as ASI goes up and their shares are up, they sell little by little trying to make their way up.
- Another set does day trading to bring down their losses -> they buy some, then if market goes up, they sell some.. If goes down wither they average or sell and wait for the shares to go south more and buy back. This is also a strategy to make ur losses less.
 
* High not worthys are waiting sideline letting retailers run the play.. They rarely involve in earning a buck. One reason may be that ppl are educated so they know what's going on.. On the other hand, they want to grab shares dirt cheap. They may be thinking, theirside line approach can bring market more down.
 
* Ppl buy on rumours, leaked news n when news comes out sell on uptrend - advertise here looking for bigger fools so their plight is easy. Some follow theses crooks and worship them, then the train goes and realise they were fooled. Whine and whine and curse the forum.. So this again, inadvertantly helps the market wiping out dumb money.
 
* CHOGM was initiated with the hopes of developing Sri Lanka. We think all these Mercs and the massive infrastructure updates and expenditure can be justified if any new investments, foreing money come in aid of Sri Lanka. So cant blame his excellency cuz at some point the person in power will have to make decisions, thinking in terms of developing the country eventhough it attracts certain costs.
The irony is; ppl take these oppertunities to meet the corruption, high values are quoted so an expenditure worth of 2-3 billion ends up in 2-3 folds more in billions.
i.e. I personally think the expenditure for the Katunayake Expressway is too much. The cost of the currently completed expressway (25.8 km)amounts to almost over Rs. 2 billion per km, and arguabally the most expensive stretch of similar road in the whole world.
Then again I learnt that this was due to the route change in CBK regime which was an expensive route over the marshes over the Muthurajawela marshes and the Negombo lake. So massive quantities of fill had to be done with dredged sea-sand. (most expensive fill material). Also a total of nearly 700 houses had to be demolished for the construction and the compensation had to be paid. RDA engineers never wanted to inform the president of the diffuculty and cost srtucture.
 
* New debenture issues are coming - who would not want over 13% guaranteed, tradable debenture?

* Simply, the budget for 2014 is not a people's choice. For example, see the increase tax for essential items? This came after what? A recent tariff hyke in Electricty & transportation. Does any influence is needed for the ppl in power to understand that the common man is strugglling to meet ends. He/she has to cut down electricity consumption in doing so and now adding insult to injury, their food plate is also affected.

8The Titanic is Sinking Empty Re: The Titanic is Sinking Wed Nov 27, 2013 9:29 am

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Excellent explanation by SMALLVILLE about present situation in the the SL Stock market and the country

I think effect of the 2014 Budget is mainly on imported food items.It will
effect local production .B. union, Chillies Dried Fish etc



Last edited by D.G.Dayaratne on Wed Nov 27, 2013 10:14 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : typing error)

9The Titanic is Sinking Empty Re: The Titanic is Sinking Wed Nov 27, 2013 9:37 am

yellow knife


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
smallville has given a very comprehensive answer.

circus-comes to town economy

that is a term i found in a nice book called CRASH PROOF. there are some administrators who believe that one event will boom the economy.
When a circus team come to town all villagers from surrouning villages flock to the town increasing the income for almost everyone in the town. Bakery items, hotel industry thrive. Hoteliers show the NEW TREND and ask bank loans to expand room capacity. Banks show growth in revenue. Every statistics are fantastic and highlighted in media.

Circus team leave the town. Where's Boom gone?

Many investors and media men believe in short term events. If you have subscribed to rights of Kingsburry you should have got 50% return in few weeks.Beacuse every one said that circus has come to town and will stay in town hotels. Now the circus team has gone.

Big Investors subscribe to Kingsburry rights issue looking at longterm perspective but they may surely enjoy these circus shows as well.

Market is not moving up at the moment. That is the truth. Now forget the circus gone and circus going to come. Look at what people want to buy . TJL may produce under wears. The demand for under wears will not suddenly go up due to CHOGM. but the demand for Victorian Secrets will be there in the world. So is Kalani tyres. So is tea planting.etc and etc.

Buy not because another buy. Buy because you have reasons

10The Titanic is Sinking Empty Re: The Titanic is Sinking Wed Nov 27, 2013 10:53 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
DG,

It is not helping CSE these days.

seel below
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t31835-downtrend-on-cse-continues#187494


@D.G.Dayaratne wrote:Why The Budget was not help ?

Most of people including economists ans Businessmen say 2014
Budget is good.

11The Titanic is Sinking Empty Re: The Titanic is Sinking Wed Nov 27, 2013 2:47 pm

prabath


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
This Titanic has a remote control.It may have a flying gear button too.

12The Titanic is Sinking Empty Re: The Titanic is Sinking Wed Nov 27, 2013 2:55 pm

viper123

viper123
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@prabath wrote:This Titanic has a remote control.It may have a flying gear button too.
Still they didnt releas the break. But sonner or later they will click on the flying button, but the problem is when ??

13The Titanic is Sinking Empty Re: The Titanic is Sinking Thu Jan 02, 2014 10:03 am

prabath


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Now you'll see a ship(Titanic) flying. Very Happy Very Happy 

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