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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Geneva Hurdle in March

Geneva Hurdle in March

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1Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Geneva Hurdle in March Sat Dec 21, 2013 10:51 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
As many people point out, Geneva meeting in March is crucial for Sr Lanka. If the GOSL is tactful enough and handle the matter diplomatically we will be fine. but if the western countries insist on what they want, things can be serious. As many analysts say, if a special proposal passed against us, economic sanctions are also will follow.If such a thing happens what would be the impact on our capital market??
In such a situation Packer's arrival will be important. Because he is an influential businessman back in Australia and he may have a say for their government. he can't risk US $ 350 million on the project. So GOSL should use whatever the resources they have at the moment. So FDI's are important in that sense. also.
what you all think???

2Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Sun Dec 22, 2013 12:57 am

NUINTH


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
If we handle this systematically, I do not think this will be a big hurdle for us. But it should be a diplomatically. The government must appoint right person with clear plan. Whole team/nation must work for that. Propaganda campaign regarding LLRC should go around the world through foreign affairs.

I think recent CHOGM was a good event for streathen foreign affairs with other nation & Presently MR holding big position of CHOGM. Most of foreign leaders expressed their plesure regarding a country growth after the war (Except Camoran as he had a different agenda) Other thing some Sri Lankan favourable countries have entitled for voting at Geniva this time.

But problem is, These days the government is busy with internal crisis, coming elections, drugs with grease & PM. Opposition busy with leadership council & Sajith, election etc. They should solve these nonsense quickly.

I guess "Yaka kiyana tharamata kalu wena ekak na" coz now SL doing well "when we compare with some other countries" like Syria, Iraq, Iran, Egypt etc.

Hope for the best.

3Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Sun Dec 22, 2013 10:45 am

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Leon wrote:As many people point out, Geneva meeting in March is crucial for Sr Lanka. If the GOSL is tactful enough and handle the matter diplomatically we will be fine. but if the western countries insist on what they want, things can be serious. As  many analysts say, if a  special proposal passed against us, economic sanctions are also will follow.If such a thing happens what would be the impact on our capital market??
In such a situation Packer's arrival will be important. Because he is an influential businessman back in Australia and he may have a say for their government. he can't risk US $ 350 million on the project. So GOSL should use whatever the resources they have at the moment. So FDI's are important in that sense. also.
what you all think???

Packer doesn't have any capacity at Aussie, even his $350mn in peanut for Australian government. May be Dr.M.R might have greater power than packer in Aussie government since boat arrivals have huge impact on the Aussie cabinet. So Tonny wouldn't go wrong with M.R. But British head has some agenda which is not clear to the public yet.

Our government are well aware the result of US sanction. They don't go that extreme. MR is tactic player who swells if he needs. Easy way is they try to punish army commander (Sarath fon) for war crime and make the deal simple, may be few more officials will be punished. This could be the worst. Politics is always dirty and war would always make casualties. No1 can change it...

4Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Sun Dec 22, 2013 11:26 am

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Jana1 wrote:

Packer doesn't have any capacity at Aussie, even his $350mn in peanut for Australian government. May be Dr.M.R might have greater power than packer in Aussie government since boat arrivals have huge impact on the Aussie cabinet. So Tonny wouldn't go wrong with M.R. But British head has some agenda which is not clear to the public yet.

Our government are well aware the result of US sanction. They don't go that extreme. MR is tactic player who swells if he needs. Easy way is they try to punish army commander (Sarath fon) for war crime and make the deal simple, may be few more officials will be punished. This could be the worst. Politics is always dirty and  war would always make casualties. No1 can change it...

Agree with you Jana.
I was also thinking similar sort of escape route ( if things get worse). Send few top level army officers to prison can be the easiest way to ease the situation for few more years. However the government will have to look after those families until the officers back.

We all should thank for British people whoever cast their votes for conservative party (David Cameron's Party). If labour party in power then things could have been much worse.

In General Sri Lankan who (used to) support LTTE in UK have more power and money than UK Sri lankan community who don't either support ltte or pressurise sl government for war crimes.

Any UK party cannot ignore the voting power of Srilankans live in UK. As a commonwealth country, Srilankans live the UK can cast thier votes in any UK election. They dont have to have PR or UK citizenship for that.

I think sl government should at least try to keep a good relationship with Europe. Even though it wont give any positive impact short/medium term.

5Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Sun Dec 22, 2013 12:38 pm

Kithsiri

Kithsiri
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
What would be the accountability & the ownership of the Commander in Chief and the guy who ran all those misdeeds behind the scene by passing the Army command structure?
I am sure, whoever is pushing this has already given considerations to this escape route strategy and have taken necessary precautions.

6Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Sun Dec 22, 2013 12:51 pm

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin
Already they have sent Sarath, the main actor, to the prison, but for a different reason, which of course might boomarang on them. I dont think he is guilty of human rights violations. Allged violations if occurred, would have been done by ppl at lower rungs. If there are evidence they can try what is suggested as escape route.

7Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Sun Dec 22, 2013 2:22 pm

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
May be there is a high possibility the guys who appeared in the video (published by Channel-4) could be punished severely. We also have to remember if American and British interested to jeopardise M.R they would definitely do it in one time. Good example is Gaddafi and Satham.. Gadaffi omitted their command in 1991, he was revenged in 2011. Gadaffi ran out of emotions which killed him. But M.R knows how to escape dramas, I guess..

@ K.Haputantri,

There should be very high officials command at the last stage. If Praba's son was in captive, as shown in channel-4, some wiser brains worked with prudent manner, predicting he could lead future Tamils diaspora, and command lower to clear him. You know how low levels gangs would have exclaimed to inform their bosses when they caught praba's son. I read similar stories in DBS.Jeyaraj articles.

For me war is war. There should be casualties. A part from that murder and rapping cannot be accepted. Govt should simply punish those culprits and develop country together with all minorities, simply forgetting past is wiser decision. Finally Lanka is going to become as playground of those western rich, if this problem will not be handled in a prudent manner.

8Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Sun Dec 22, 2013 9:33 pm

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Leon wrote:As many people point out, Geneva meeting in March is crucial for Sr Lanka. If the GOSL is tactful enough and handle the matter diplomatically we will be fine. but if the western countries insist on what they want, things can be serious. As  many analysts say, if a  special proposal passed against us, economic sanctions are also will follow.If such a thing happens what would be the impact on our capital market??
In such a situation Packer's arrival will be important. Because he is an influential businessman back in Australia and he may have a say for their government. he can't risk US $ 350 million on the project. So GOSL should use whatever the resources they have at the moment. So FDI's are important in that sense. also.
what you all think???

What ever the case there wan't be any economic sanctions. The don't want to depress the victims again. Even in last resolution it was clearly indicated that imposing of any sanctions are out of the way. 

But there would be strong pressure on the political leadership to investigate the crimes. That's all. But we are in a better shape this time. The vote base of Sri Lanka's opponents have been reduced. 

Any how it's good if march provide some buying opportunities.  

Last year there was a huge uproar against Sri Lanka at HR sessions, but there was only a 200 point drop at CSE. As earnings drop in most companies are likely to be get reversed with 3rd quarter 2013/14 (Dec. results),  I rather doubt any opportunity this time. There are many beaten stocks in CSE that can sustain the index.

9Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Sun Dec 22, 2013 10:42 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Jana1 wrote:
@Leon wrote:As many people point out, Geneva meeting in March is crucial for Sr Lanka. If the GOSL is tactful enough and handle the matter diplomatically we will be fine. but if the western countries insist on what they want, things can be serious. As  many analysts say, if a  special proposal passed against us, economic sanctions are also will follow.If such a thing happens what would be the impact on our capital market??
In such a situation Packer's arrival will be important. Because he is an influential businessman back in Australia and he may have a say for their government. he can't risk US $ 350 million on the project. So GOSL should use whatever the resources they have at the moment. So FDI's are important in that sense. also.
what you all think???

Packer doesn't have any capacity at Aussie, even his $350mn in peanut for Australian government. May be Dr.M.R might have greater power than packer in Aussie government since boat arrivals have huge impact on the Aussie cabinet. So Tonny wouldn't go wrong with M.R. But British head has some agenda which is not clear to the public yet.

Our government are well aware the result of US sanction. They don't go that extreme. MR is tactic player who swells if he needs. Easy way is they try to punish army commander (Sarath fon) for war crime and make the deal simple, may be few more officials will be punished. This could be the worst. Politics is always dirty and  war would always make casualties. No1 can change it...

Jana1, Though USD 350million is peanut don't forget Packer is 6th billionaire in Australia. So he may have some powers behind him which he could use to the utmost. Normally all the governments surrender to the highly influential businessmen no matter east or west.

10Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Sun Dec 22, 2013 10:48 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@UKboy wrote:
@Jana1 wrote:

Packer doesn't have any capacity at Aussie, even his $350mn in peanut for Australian government. May be Dr.M.R might have greater power than packer in Aussie government since boat arrivals have huge impact on the Aussie cabinet. So Tonny wouldn't go wrong with M.R. But British head has some agenda which is not clear to the public yet.

Our government are well aware the result of US sanction. They don't go that extreme. MR is tactic player who swells if he needs. Easy way is they try to punish army commander (Sarath fon) for war crime and make the deal simple, may be few more officials will be punished. This could be the worst. Politics is always dirty and  war would always make casualties. No1 can change it...

Agree with you Jana.
I was also thinking similar sort of escape route ( if things get worse). Send few top level army officers to prison can be the easiest way to ease the situation for few more years. However the government will have to look after those families until the officers back.

We all should thank for British people whoever cast their votes for conservative party (David Cameron's Party). If labour party in power then things could have been much worse.

In General Sri Lankan who (used to) support LTTE in UK have more power and money than UK Sri lankan community who don't either support ltte or pressurise sl government for war crimes.

Any UK party cannot ignore the voting power of Srilankans live in UK. As a commonwealth country, Srilankans live the UK can cast thier votes in any UK election. They dont have to have PR or UK citizenship for that.

I think sl government should at least try to keep a good relationship with Europe. Even though it wont give any positive impact short/medium term.

I don't think there's any possibility to betray military and make a way out. Because that will definitely erode vote base in the country and opposition may use the situation.

11Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Sun Dec 22, 2013 11:18 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
International politics & pressure concerned, many adverse effects had been gathered due to the actions of inefficient diplomats, state representatives & the domestic eccentric parliamentarians. Though it is much delayed, it is appreciable that government has already realized the shortcomings of policies adapted.
Moderate policies being used currently may smooth the aggressiveness of western countries provided they realize that their aims are going to be achieved except toppling the present regime. However, frequent changes of world political stage will decide the weight of rights issue in next year which may favorable or unfavorable to our country.
Unlike previous occasions, chosen team of experts, representing to save the country will act sensibly with the sustenance of world leaders meeting held recently.

Continuous force by diaspora is a decisive factor on the outcome of the human rights session since many westerners still lean to the strength of the diaspora. Also,
pre-warning of dipping counters of the CSE, as time comes nearby, would be the omen from the sensitive investors.

12Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Mon Dec 23, 2013 7:02 am

VISA


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Whom to UNHRC is reporting ?
I assume it must be Security Council.
Who authorize Iraq war ?
Still people die in Iraq.

then pls listen to this. Colin powell talk to bloomberg on 20th aug' 2012 about his new book - it work for me. i do not think it work for IRAQ or for the WORLD.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/colin-powell-discusses-new-book-it-worked-for-me-np~Nt94jS8K7Zt2GA1p7zg.html

do you think there are human rights violations in IRAQ

do you think UNHRC can investigate any HR violations before inquiring into IRAQ war or can they Inquire their own bosses ?

FYI
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War

13Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Mon Dec 23, 2013 7:26 am

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Leon wrote:
@UKboy wrote:
@Jana1 wrote:

Packer doesn't have any capacity at Aussie, even his $350mn in peanut for Australian government. May be Dr.M.R might have greater power than packer in Aussie government since boat arrivals have huge impact on the Aussie cabinet. So Tonny wouldn't go wrong with M.R. But British head has some agenda which is not clear to the public yet.

Our government are well aware the result of US sanction. They don't go that extreme. MR is tactic player who swells if he needs. Easy way is they try to punish army commander (Sarath fon) for war crime and make the deal simple, may be few more officials will be punished. This could be the worst. Politics is always dirty and  war would always make casualties. No1 can change it...

Agree with you Jana.
I was also thinking similar sort of escape route ( if things get worse). Send few top level army officers to prison can be the easiest way to ease the situation for few more years. However the government will have to look after those families until the officers back.

We all should thank for British people whoever cast their votes for conservative party (David Cameron's Party). If labour party in power then things could have been much worse.

In General Sri Lankan who (used to) support LTTE in UK have more power and money than UK Sri lankan community who don't either support ltte or pressurise sl government for war crimes.

Any UK party cannot ignore the voting power of Srilankans live in UK. As a commonwealth country, Srilankans live the UK can cast thier votes in any UK election. They dont have to have PR or UK citizenship for that.

I think sl government should at least try to keep a good relationship with Europe. Even though it wont give any positive impact short/medium term.

I don't think there's any possibility to betray military and make a way out. Because that will definitely erode vote base in the country and opposition may use the situation.

Wouldn't u think that the economic sanction would erode vote base? The issue is which1 would erode more votes... If economic sanction get enforce, Sri Lanka already has similar sort of closed economy effort which made Srimavo government into hell... If punishing officials would erode certain % of sinhala vote whilst attracting most minority votes.

If MR plan everything perfectly, painting some officials ordered to rape sum1 or if so (just hypothetically assume) even majority Sinhalese would show mercy that officials should be punished. Even urself would think to punish them.. Its all about politics and their nature.. Human mind will simply adopt for that similar to when mkt moves up no1 wanna sell assuming it will go up further....

14Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Mon Dec 23, 2013 10:38 am

wiki


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks to our short sighted policies and not understanding the reality and gravity of the problem now we have to bat in a difficult wicket.

It is time to

1. Wed Jayalalitha... then join the India, US, Japanees ally and say bye to China
2. Go for 13 plus as promised

15Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Wed Dec 25, 2013 4:22 am

pushpakumara


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
"The truth is heavy, therefore few care to carry it." ~Winston Churchill

Political, racial, religious beliefs etc will diminish or block our perception of reality.

16Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Wed Dec 25, 2013 7:23 am

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I think govt try to use Geneva HR problem for next election

The know nothing will happen even the resolution is passed  PERSONALLY

sanctions will effect only for ordinary people, Economy and country

They also can cover inefficiency of the Govt by using sanctions

MR know how  to convert  PERSONAL threat in to  PERSONAL opportunity

Govt could have solved all this problem by implementation of
LLRC proposals

But implementation of LLRC wiil not help to make money

They can't do what they are doing now under good RULE OF LAW
situation in the country
Geneva is not a hurdle for rulers .It will be a blessing in disguise for them

It will be a hurdle only for ordinary people you and me



Last edited by D.G.Dayaratne on Thu Dec 26, 2013 6:42 am; edited 3 times in total (Reason for editing : to explain more)

17Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Thu Dec 26, 2013 6:43 am

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Why no comments

Do you all agree with me ?

18Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Thu Dec 26, 2013 10:21 am

dudi


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
F****** hurdles suck.it takes us investors to our grave now

19Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Thu Dec 26, 2013 10:58 am

kukumarx


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@D.G.Dayaratne wrote:I think govt try to use Geneva HR problem for next election

The know nothing will happen even the resolution is passed  PERSONALLY

sanctions will effect only for ordinary people, Economy and country

They also can cover inefficiency of the Govt by using sanctions

MR know how  to convert  PERSONAL threat in to  PERSONAL opportunity

Govt could have solved all this problem by implementation of
LLRC proposals

But implementation of LLRC wiil not help to make money

They can't do what they are doing now under good RULE OF LAW
situation in the country
Geneva is not a hurdle for rulers .It will be a blessing in disguise for them

It will be a hurdle only for ordinary people you and me


Totally agree!

Hope we are not heading for Zimbabwe type situation

20Geneva Hurdle in March Empty Re: Geneva Hurdle in March Thu Dec 26, 2013 11:33 am

hettdas

hettdas
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@D.G.Dayaratne wrote:I think govt try to use Geneva HR problem for next election

The know nothing will happen even the resolution is passed  PERSONALLY

sanctions will effect only for ordinary people, Economy and country

They also can cover inefficiency of the Govt by using sanctions

MR know how  to convert  PERSONAL threat in to  PERSONAL opportunity

Govt could have solved all this problem by implementation of
LLRC proposals

But implementation of LLRC wiil not help to make money



They can't do what they are doing now under good RULE OF LAW
situation in the country
Geneva is not a hurdle for rulers .It will be a blessing in disguise for them

It will be a hurdle only for ordinary people you and me

Well said. Rulers can blame for sanctions and cover their inefficiency & corruption. I also totally agree with you.

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