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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Year ended 31st December 2013 - Trends and stats

Year ended 31st December 2013 - Trends and stats

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pushpakumara


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks a lot nrod. I was looking for this info. and you have hit right on the spot. Good work.
It is about 7% growth is not it? Have you got starting and ending index (ASI) figures for 2009,2010,2011 and 2012 as well? If not do not worry.



Last edited by pushpakumara on Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:03 pm; edited 1 time in total

knockknobbler


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Knock,
I think you are commenting on the overall CSE pictue of 2013 taking the start and the end into consideration. YEs it was not much of a trend except of over 4% gain in rupee terms ( $ is lesser)

But Nrod here has broken down the 2013 into several short term cycles which made up the over the final result.

Appreciate your comment, and the focus on end results.
However, my opinion is based on ASI behavior, in between.
The basic  question  here is,
can... the ASI behavior in several short term cycles lasting few days...be interpreted as TREND ?

knockknobbler


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@nrod wrote:
Thanks for your thoughts. I shall be pleased to see your chart for the period from 1st Jan 2013 to 31 Dec 2013. Along with your view too. Thank you once again.

Sorry, mate,
I am not sure how to upload Charts, Excel Tables here.
Besides, I am not disputing your chart.
It may be the interpretation of a TREND. ( see my comment to slstock, also )

nrod


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
@knockknobbler wrote:
@slstock wrote:Knock,
I think you are commenting on the overall CSE pictue of 2013 taking the start and the end into consideration. YEs it was not much of a trend except of over 4% gain in rupee terms ( $ is lesser)

But Nrod here has broken down the 2013 into several short term cycles which made up the over the final result.

Appreciate your comment, and the focus on end results.
However, my opinion is based on ASI behavior, in between.
The basic  question  here is,
can... the ASI behavior in several short term cycles lasting few days...be interpreted as TREND ?

May I so humbly point out that the shortest no of days in my post was 15 days between 19th Aug'13 TO 9th Sept'13, and the market descended 10.09%. From my view point it is a huge decline, therefore for me the information is highly useful and critical. Another point to remember here is the 9th trend which is the present trend. Today is the 23rd day of the trend, and keeping an eye on the present trend, keep counting it while looking at other charts in your watch list, for their behavior, using the oscillators and indicators, is very important. That way you can no doubt be a complete trader/investor. As I mentioned about the watch list here, may I add that it will be ideal to watch the strong companies first as for the market to go up they must go up first. How ever if you are a chartist then your watch list can be based on your trading rules and trade setups. So to sum it up, 15 days is not a few days, instead every trend allows you to give you the freedom to make your call,i.e. to enter or exit.

In order to make your self clear, I think you can use your online trading system to give you charts to upload in to your post, as I've done in both my posts. I have direct fn and it is very easy to copy and paste using that. I suppose any other system the brokers are providing to their clients can be used to do that. Best Regards.

nrod


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
@pushpakumara wrote:Thanks a lot nrod. I was looking for this info. and you have hit right on the spot. Good work.
It is about 7% growth is not it? Have you got starting and ending index (ASI) figures for 2009,2010,2011 and 2012 as well? If not do not worry.

Thanks for your comments. You see these ups and downs can be interpreted in many ways. Yes if you add the ups and subtract the downs you may get 7%. But you can also go trend wise. Meaning if you have entered in to the present trend( trend opened on the 28th of Nov'13 ), meaning at any day within the trend, you must follow the trend,and react when the trend is reversing. Some say trend is your friend, it is true only if you are friends with the chart that shows you the direction of the trend. I can work out yester  year figures, but I think that tracking the present trend is more useful. As I mentioned in the above reply, today is the 23rd day of the present trend, but if you take the opening of the ASI which is 5744.29 and today's close of 5968.04 in the present trend, that is an increase of 223.75 points or 3.9%, for that period of 23 days. But as you know many stocks have given returns greater than that during that period. So looking at the ASI is critical, but monitoring your watch list during that period is more important. Best regards.

pushpakumara


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@nrod wrote:
@pushpakumara wrote:Thanks a lot nrod. I was looking for this info. and you have hit right on the spot. Good work.
It is about 7% growth is not it? Have you got starting and ending index (ASI) figures for 2009,2010,2011 and 2012 as well? If not do not worry.

Thanks for your comments. You see these ups and downs can be interpreted in many ways. Yes if you add the ups and subtract the downs you may get 7%. But you can also go trend wise. Meaning if you have entered in to the present trend( trend opened on the 28th of Nov'13 ), meaning at any day within the trend, you must follow the trend,and react when the trend is reversing. Some say trend is your friend, it is true only if you are friends with the chart that shows you the direction of the trend. I can work out yester  year figures, but I think that tracking the present trend is more useful. As I mentioned in the above reply, today is the 23rd day of the present trend, but if you take the opening of the ASI which is 5744.29 and today's close of 5968.04 in the present trend, that is an increase of 223.75 points or 3.9%, for that period of 23 days. But as you know many stocks have given returns greater than that during that period. So looking at the ASI is critical, but monitoring your watch list during that period is more important. Best regards.

Thanks nirod for the detailed reply and for your time.

sahan8896


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
but monitoring your watch list during that period is more important.
Liked that part,Other thing is always there will be shares which will outperform the index whether it's red or green.If you can Identify them early you will be a winner.

Expert

Expert
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
nrod,
You are a Great Analyst. And apparently, you are making good use of your analysis. It is best to make use of whatever is available without getting entangled in meanings of words. Thanks a lot for sharing your findings with us; allowing many here to benefit. I appreciate very much, your selfless work.

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@nrod - great analysis ! keep up the good work !
all the best for 2014.

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Very good analysis... Keep these coming.. All the best for a great year ahead..

ddrperera


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
good work.. Very Happy 

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks for the analysis.

Below from Asia Securities.
Year ended 31st December 2013 - Trends and stats - Page 2 Asi10

http://research.srilankaequity.com/t873-03-01-2014-weekly-review-asia-wealth-management-co-ltd

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Good one guys...

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