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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Where's the bull run?

Where's the bull run?

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1Where's the bull run? Empty Where's the bull run? Mon Jan 06, 2014 2:13 pm

nimantha80


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Oopps,What's Happening.???

2Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Mon Jan 06, 2014 3:22 pm

yellow knife


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
bull is being slaughtered....but hope it may jump out from the blood bath soon..

3Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Mon Jan 06, 2014 3:55 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Bull is dipping in the water. Staying sometime underneath, he has to come up for breathing oxygen. It is the life style & investment style as well.

4Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Mon Jan 06, 2014 4:28 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Not today, it is on tomorrow.

5Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Mon Jan 06, 2014 6:19 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
tell those sec buggers to rmv publc float shit. @

6Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Mon Jan 06, 2014 8:02 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Wish if all market have green days only and no red ;-)

7Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Mon Jan 06, 2014 11:15 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@mark wrote:tell those sec buggers to rmv publc float shit. @
@mark, it it th reason for the down trend??

8Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Tue Jan 07, 2014 7:27 am

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
@Leon wrote:
@mark wrote:tell those sec buggers to rmv publc float shit. @
@mark, it it th reason for the down trend??

no no. That isnt the only reason. But i see it as a very considerable reason and very negative reason.

more public float means prices will go down more. Since many are not complied.



9Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Tue Jan 07, 2014 9:32 am

yellow knife


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Money is walking out of FD cages. Matured FDs are rarely renewed. So that many has to go some where. I believe stocks will attract them or else consumption. Both ways its healthy for the market.
The vision of the Treasury Secretary and The Governor of the CBSL is clearly articulated in several occasions. Interest rate will forcibly be dragged down motivating the growth of the economy. However there will be some structural changes with the road map of the CBSL. When mergers take place among banks as well as among Finance companies, what will happen to landlords of buildings. Just imagine the number of branches located in towns . With the merger these locations will be vacated and confined to few premises. Where will the demand for commercial property rent come from ? When we create vacuum of milk powder from where will the distributors find money ? Many local businessmen are authorized dealers of Anchor and other FMCG products. It seems we are cutting the conduit of their cash-flow. This will make banks to fall into a trouble. Even now the NPL ratio of banks are soaring. We cant blame for bad credit. Its the prime customers who are now falling to bad list. These are not good signs. Look at the quarter reports of CIND and other construction related firms. Many constructions related firms are in trouble because the delayed payment by clients(government).

All these show some negative signs in the economy. Its happy to note amidst of these the GDP is growing at 7%+. But after war Japan was growing in a faster track with 10%+ and with increased savings ratio. Sri Lanka seems to be behind expected numbers and now there are worries about even the numbers quoted as explained by MP Anura Kumara.

However I feel the government will soon find the cause of these hiccups and my thinking is its all because of business in concentrated among very few selected businessmen.

These days I am reading an nice book WHY NATIONS FAIL. Somewhere the writers give a nice example. Slim Carlos the world richest man of many years is a Mexican. He has acquired a company in USA and later the company failed. Slim Carlos became so rich because he purchased shares of Mexican Telecom. Mexican Telecom was earlier a monopoly of the government and 50% of that was on sale. Slim Carlos was not the highest bidder. But he got it as he had good political connection. He was not asked to settle the amount immediately, and he settled the dues from dividends.

This culture creates champions by tying the legs of others. When they are asked to run in any other country they fail despite the fact they are the champions of the country. Sri Lanka is no exceptional . But the trend is bad for economic growth.

Forget all what I said negatively. One positive factor is Interest Rate. Hope this will whip the bull

10Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Tue Jan 07, 2014 10:35 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
After march ?

11Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Tue Jan 07, 2014 12:38 pm

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Bulls pawing ground

12Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Tue Jan 07, 2014 1:02 pm

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
Matador having a coffee break.....

13Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Tue Jan 07, 2014 1:49 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Leon wrote:
@mark wrote:tell those sec buggers to rmv publc float shit. @
@mark, it it th reason for the down trend??

Here we go again.. Can we take 6500 mark this time??



Last edited by Leon on Tue Jan 07, 2014 1:51 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : new additions.)

14Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Tue Jan 07, 2014 5:27 pm

Intelligent Investing


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@nimantha80 wrote:Oopps,What's Happening.???

Bull run will start if ASPI passes 6000 this week - if it does, BUY!!!

15Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Tue Jan 07, 2014 5:39 pm

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:After march ?

good point.. Depends on how many on our side?  Rolling Eyes 

The rest of the stage looks better now than how it was in 2013.

16Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Fri Jan 10, 2014 11:03 am

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Come.mon. bulls , 01 more point to the first mark

17Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Fri Jan 10, 2014 4:00 pm

knockknobbler


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@yellow knife wrote:
...............
The vision of the Treasury Secretary and The Governor of the CBSL  is clearly articulated in several occasions. Interest rate will forcibly be dragged down motivating the growth of the economy. However there will be some structural changes with the road map of the CBSL. When mergers take place among banks as well as among Finance companies, what will happen to landlords of buildings. Just imagine the number of branches located in towns . With the merger these locations will be vacated and confined to few premises. Where will the demand for commercial property rent come from ?
...................



Can we expect mergers will take place among Banks ....., because the Central Bank  Governor  asked so ?
Bullshit !!! How can Governor tell the banks to Merge ?
It 's a decision up to the shareholders of the Bank ,not the regulator .  These are fundamentals of the market mechanism.

18Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Fri Jan 10, 2014 4:05 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Can we expect mergers will take place among Banks ....., because the Central Bank  Governor  asked so ?
Bullshit !!! How can Governor tell the banks to Merge ?
It 's a decision up to the shareholders of the Bank ,not the regulator .  These are fundamentals of the market mechanism.[/quote]

Yes its the shareholders of the Bank, i agree with u, at the same time u See who are the main shareholders in the major banks at the moment?

Also what will happen if the regulator suspend the licence issued to operate? Even listed if the anything can happen in CSE, ex :- Hotel Developers, Pellawatte



19Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Fri Jan 10, 2014 11:17 pm

knockknobbler


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Gaja wrote:
Yes its the shareholders of the Bank, i agree with u, at the same time u See who are the main shareholders in the major banks at the moment?
Also what will happen if the regulator suspend the licence issued to operate? Even listed if the anything can happen in CSE, ex :- Hotel Developers, Pellawatte

You are correct , it seems Govt is trying to wrest control of the major banks.

However, still, Govt institutions are not the major shareholder with regard to NDB and DFCC ,which are subject to this proposal.  

Regulator can't suspend the banking license based on this issue. There is no violation of terms relating to banking license.
Agree, anything can happen in CSE, if the  political authority  want it that way. However so far , this "merger " idea came only from  Mr Cabraal.   When he suggest something as Governor, it has to be based on economic /market reality.

Further there is a significant difference compare to Hotel Developers, Pelawate cases. Govt could act that way,  primarily because those businesses were on land leased from the Govt.
Today, there is a joint announcement  by NDB and DFCC in this regard. As I see, it emphasizes that the decision is up to respective Board of Directors ,which represent the major shareholders.

20Where's the bull run? Empty Re: Where's the bull run? Sat Jan 11, 2014 2:10 pm

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
No one can create a bull run It should be decided by market fources

We have experienced after effects of artificial  bull run after 2009 

If stated statistics and economic indicators are correct there is good environment for a bull run in 2014

only problem is physiological effect of HR resolution if passed 

I expect govt will not do same mistake again and again



Last edited by D.G.Dayaratne on Sat Jan 11, 2014 2:12 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : to explain more)

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