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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CSE in 2014 and fundamental shares that have underperformed

CSE in 2014 and fundamental shares that have underperformed

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UKboy


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I’m pleased to see the performances of last Friday. It was done without the normal heavyweights such JKH, CARS, CTC, NEST.
So far mainly the small scale investors were in buying side. Many Mid/large scale retailers/investors still either in sideline or in the selling side . Many of them still want to sell what they have before consider buying any.
Recent government $ bond was fully subscribed. At any level, that’s excellent news. That could be the main reason behind this upward trend. Less interest rates also a good sign and it will help many listed companies positively.
However I think we should be very careful when comes investing on illiquid shares. Should not keep 50%+ exposure of the PF for those counters. I believe SEC will bring a deviation. Surely they don’t want to lose high caps such CTC, NEST. But when it’s gonna happen is anyone’s guess.

Crazy moves we saw in 2009/2010 needs the support of manipulators (professional traders). It’s difficult to see a natural rise of a counter in short period based on fundamentals. Ex TJL. TYRE etc.

I’m still not comfortable with the Geneva issue. As Jana1 mentioned somewhere, there is an escape route (worse case) which I agree. Hope we will not need to go that far.

How government handles the situation is something more interesting to see than investing new money at CSE. I really hope people leave what happened in the past and move on.

This is going to be a test match in a 20/20 atmosphere.




bullrun


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I invested a considerable amount and went after GREG and all short of bull shits and some of so called  fundamentally sound stocks. But I bought very small number of JKH and kept for sometimes and sold with marginal profit with frustration.
However, if I invested everything in JKH and kept quite till today I may have earned more than 100% now and could have saved expenses on internet bill and all sort of side effect related with stress. Instead of I lost almost all I had!
Now I have realized that CSE means JKH nothing than that. I concentrate on this only now. Hence, for me
CSE = JKH = CSE

NUINTH


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Thx SLS for start timely & healthy discussion.

As members said, there are good fundamental shares in the market with bargain price. Nice to see & enjoying the green journey of last few days. Hope it will continue to long run with some barriers.

I think JKH has unfinished run & it will start in future. But as above said no need to high speed journey. At the slow & steady journey, we can enjoy more.

For above list, I like to add CFVF. Members know very well relationship with interest rate and this share. Already, it's moving slowely. (Few months back I sold some CFVF & bought JKH W22 & LIOC. Already 35% & 23% gain. Now I need to fill more CFVF before heating)

With my limited knowledge, I'm requesting from members please play with confidence. Select strong shares, then your results also will be the same. I'm also holding few speculations. But 10% of my PF. We can learn lot from this forum. Thx all.

innam


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:BTw, there are a few more shares which are hardly discuss in the forum and are so very attractive at present prices. Buy hey I don't want to be  Wessanthara and maybe someone else will mention.


Well let me mention some unmoved shares and open it for further discussion if any one is interested.

RWSL- Last quarter showed a seasonal spike in earnings and even though it may not be sustained in future quarters the low cost of the counter and bring in speculators. Besides NSL seems to have sold most of his stake and gone down to number 17 in the shareholding list. That's a good indication to start buying.

SHAW-If their disclosures are accurate there should be a massive one off capital gain in the December results. This might trigger a move in the share price

CWM- While they only lease a land in DR Wijewardena Mw any developments in the area can help push the price. Recovery in their export markets for rubber products will also be a trigger

VLL- Will end up showing better results and while they may not repeat it since they depend on the weather the low cost of the counter may bring in the retailers.

KCAB- If they continue the results of the last two quarters people may start to look at this illiquid counter

SOY-Similar to KCAB investors will move into this if the company continues the results of the last two quarters

sahan8896


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@innam wrote:
@slstock wrote:BTw, there are a few more shares which are hardly discuss in the forum and are so very attractive at present prices. Buy hey I don't want to be  Wessanthara and maybe someone else will mention.


Well let me mention some unmoved shares and open it for further discussion if any one is interested.

RWSL- Last quarter showed a seasonal spike in earnings and even though it may not be sustained in future quarters the low cost of the counter and bring in speculators. Besides NSL seems to have sold most of his stake and gone down to number 17 in the shareholding list. That's a good indication to start buying.

SHAW-If their disclosures are accurate there should be a massive one off capital gain in the December results. This might trigger a move in the share price

CWM- While they only lease a land in DR Wijewardena Mw any developments in the area can help push the price. Recovery in their export markets for rubber products will also be a trigger

VLL- Will end up showing better results and while they may not repeat it since they depend on the weather the low cost of the counter may bring in the retailers.

KCAB- If they continue the results of the last two quarters people may start to look at this illiquid counter

SOY-Similar to KCAB investors will move into this if the company continues the results of the last two quarters
Innam after long time.
Agree with you on VLL and RWSL,Specially VLL.
Last year soy had a run from 120 to 230+ I think.It may have more gas.
CWM,KCAB moved good amount last week 55-65 and 60's to 80's respectively.But they will have more gas.
Out of your once soy is my only concern.
BTW bull run is on and who's getting the highest percentage-wise return is the real winner.I'm always targeting it.

ADP

ADP
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks slstock for the time and the information I like CDB X and COCO from your list

@ Intelligent Investing thanks for the tip, I like TKYO and  KAPI from your list.

(Just wish I had money to buy... Crying or Very sad )

PS: I would like to add following
REG (which I hold) has been consistent with there quarterly performance.  
NTB and UB because considering there performance and size (due to the merger requirements that are coming).

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Good to see healthy discussions. Keep them coming.

Antonym: 7000 ASI by the end of the year is a conservative estimate which I think should be possible by factors at hand presently. But we know at CSE if the bull gets out of the pen what can happen. A Bull in china shop can test previous ASI high . Like you said, maybe being too optimistic in not good. Let stick to 7000 which is 15% return on ASI. If there is anything more it will be bonus yeah yeah yeah . But I hope if ASI goes to 7000 some shares ( in my portfolio haha) will again 50% from now.

Innam : there is a share in your list I wished no one would mentioned until I can finish collecting haha

NIJINTH : Also it might be good to keep an eye on a similar share like CFVF.

Bullrun : Speculatives or fundamentals , the key is buying not at the top . Specially with specs , it may never reach that price again. Just think GREG was once Rs 250+ and PCH Rs 30+
Yes JKH is big play but there are few other shares that carry ASI index with foreign interest. But the key it find share that can beat ASI index gains right.




seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
There will not be any major movement in VLL until the director Shangani finishes his collection. He is clearing all the sellers at 3.60.

The industry expects over production in salt industry and is planning to export the rest if possible. There are lot of players in the businuess now than few years before when RWSL started its operations.

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
A good discussion and some good stocks mentioned !

A well known conservative economist / market analyst who has been pessimistic on the market for some time is now bullish. his call - ASPI 7000.

some stocks to watch in 2014 are -

1. CINS (NV) - trading at significant discount to CINS voting (400 TO 1300). will (or can ) kotelawala's voting shares stake in Ciesot & Pictet & Cie be force sold to sort out golden key depositors. plenty of buyers for a big chunk of voting at Rs 1500-1700. will the gap between voting & non voting narrow ? CINS (NV) trading at trailing p/e of 4-5 times and Price to Book of 0.80 based on estimated december 2013 earnings.  

2. CIC - out of favour for some time now due to various reasons , drought, floods, non receipt of fertilizer subsidy etc. i read somewhere that subsidy issue sorted ? will CIC make a comeback ?

3. LMF - DIST gathering strenght at Rs 200 and is still a 10 p/e stock. will the Melstacorp metamorphis happen in 2014 ? LMF owns 38 mill dist shares and current NAV is Rs 250. core dairy business should do well due to expansion in capacity & non availability of milk powder (trying getting milk powder these days).

4. HEMAS - The smart money is collecting. but upside could be limited i.e. 40-45 range on fundamentals.

5. CINV & GUAR - If the market rises towards 7000 in 2014, a 15 % rise in the ASPI will translate to high beta stocks (like JKH) rising 30-40 %. CINV & GUAR have a high quality stock portfolio and cash to exploit a rising market. has underperformed due to Buki being out of favour. GUAR has approx 17 Mill Buki shares which should be worth at least Rs 1000 per share based on the intrinsic valuation of Goodhope Asia.

RENU, CFVF, LIOC, ECL have numerous reasons to outperform the market.

Hayleys & Dockyard are also sleeping giants at attractive valuations.

it also looks like it could be a good year for poultry. BFL is relatively cheap at Rs 130.

NUINTH


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@The Alchemist wrote:A good discussion and some good stocks mentioned !

A well known conservative economist / market analyst who has been pessimistic on the market for some time is now bullish. his call - ASPI 7000.

some stocks to watch in 2014 are -

1. CINS (NV) - trading at significant discount to CINS voting (400 TO 1300). will (or can ) kotelawala's voting shares stake in Ciesot & Pictet & Cie be force sold to sort out golden key depositors. plenty of buyers for a big chunk of voting at Rs 1500-1700. will the gap between voting & non voting narrow ? CINS (NV) trading at trailing p/e of 4-5 times and Price to Book of 0.80 based on estimated december 2013 earnings.  

2. CIC - out of favour for some time now due to various reasons , drought, floods, non receipt of fertilizer subsidy etc. i read somewhere that subsidy issue sorted ? will CIC make a comeback ?

3. LMF - DIST gathering strenght at Rs 200 and is still a 10 p/e stock. will the Melstacorp metamorphis happen in 2014 ? LMF owns 38 mill dist shares and current NAV is Rs 250. core dairy business should do well due to expansion in capacity & non availability of milk powder (trying getting milk powder these days).

4. HEMAS - The smart money is collecting. but upside could be limited i.e. 40-45 range on fundamentals.

5. CINV & GUAR - If the market rises towards 7000 in 2014, a 15 % rise in the ASPI will translate to high beta stocks (like JKH) rising 30-40 %. CINV & GUAR have a high quality stock portfolio and cash to exploit a rising market. has underperformed due to Buki being out of favour. GUAR has approx 17 Mill Buki shares which should be worth at least Rs 1000 per share based on the intrinsic valuation of Goodhope Asia.

RENU, CFVF, LIOC, ECL have numerous reasons to outperform the market.

Hayleys & Dockyard are also sleeping giants at attractive valuations.

it also looks like it could be a good year for poultry. BFL is relatively cheap at Rs 130.

Dear Alchemist,

I'm more comfortable with all shares mentioned you & others. But I could not find (With my limited source) any valid/strong reason for ECL than speculation. (Recently I disposed ECL & bought UBC).

Thx in advance.

lion


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Hi friends, healthy discussion, I would like to contribute my part to the forum members. Apart from the stocks that have been mentioned, I think the following stocks should also be watched in 2014.

1. LGL/ LGLX,. the company has shown phenomenal growth in revenue ans EPS. 6 months EPS has risen by 98%  to 2.30 Rs. forecast EPS to be at least RS. 4/- With PE 10, voting should trade between 40-45 in the coming months. X has traditionally traded with a gap of 8-10 Rs. Hence I prefer Non-voting within the price range of 22-23.5. due to low PE, Low PBV, possible higher Return

2. SHOT. X: the last time all the group hotels  were operational was in March 2013 QTR, where the group generated an EPS of 1.52 for qtr and 2.46. Both last qtrs  the hotels were closed for refurbishment and reported losses, since all the hotels were opened in Dec Qtr, we can expect good profits from March 14 Qtr, this would be a good  time re enter.

3.RAL. good revenue growth coupled  with milk power shortage should  provide profit growth,trading below the rights price and also  in the lowest range.

NUINTH


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@lion wrote:Hi friends, healthy discussion, I would like to contribute my part to the forum members. Apart from the stocks that have been mentioned, I think the following stocks should also be watched in 2014.

1. LGL/ LGLX,. the company has shown phenomenal growth in revenue ans EPS. 6 months EPS has risen by 98%  to 2.30 Rs. forecast EPS to be at least RS. 4/- With PE 10, voting should trade between 40-45 in the coming months. X has traditionally traded with a gap of 8-10 Rs. Hence I prefer Non-voting within the price range of 22-23.5. due to low PE, Low PBV, possible higher Return

2. SHOT. X: the last time all the group hotels  were operational was in March 2013 QTR, where the group generated an EPS of 1.52 for qtr and 2.46. Both last qtrs  the hotels were closed for refurbishment and reported losses, since all the hotels were opened in Dec Qtr, we can expect good profits from March 14 Qtr, this would be a good  time re enter.

3.RAL. good revenue growth coupled  with milk power shortage should  provide profit growth,trading below the rights price and also  in the lowest range.

Thx Lion,

For LGL, I red few news article regarding their hotel project call 'Ananthaya' ( As I remember it is Bangadeniya in Chillow). It's going to start operation from Feb 2014. It also will add some fuel to share.

Cheers...!!!!

pathfinder

pathfinder
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
In 2012,just before the bulls arrival we had same kind of discussion,Don't know how many of take the advantage?
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19939-good-shares-time-to-analyze-and-post-findings-open-invitation-to-all

What ever the fundamental share you hold,hold till maximum,do not go for frequent trading that only help your broker.

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@pathfinder wrote:In 2012,just before the bulls arrival we had same kind of discussion,Don't know how many of take the advantage?
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19939-good-shares-time-to-analyze-and-post-findings-open-invitation-to-all

What ever the fundamental share you hold,hold till maximum,do not go for frequent trading that only help your broker.

Don't you think it is better to set an exit price with a reasonable profit? If the share picks up with big volumes just wait and see.

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Don't you think it is better to set an exit price with a reasonable profit? If the share picks up with big volumes just wait and see.[/quote]

I used to fellow this rule, it used to give me the reasonable profit and am happy with that method.

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Gaja wrote:Don't you think it is better to set an exit price with a reasonable profit? If the share picks up with big volumes just wait and see.

I think yes we should  use a exit strategy in all case. but must not change the rule  Rolling Eyes because greed can thrash you to the ground. I too use an exit strategy because of that I survived TWOD scare  Razz and some other ..but I am happy I took those decision to exit....  tongue

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Okay TFC is at Rs 15 ( with masive negative assets) running on some rumor.

Can you think of other similar value shares in that price range and same sector now with greater
a)
b)
c)

Fresher


Moderator
Moderator
@slstock wrote:Okay TFC is at Rs 15 ( with masive negative assets) running  on  some rumor.

Can you think of other similar value shares in that price range and same sector now with greater
a)
b)
c)

I wonder how TFC is being able to go on doing business for so long with so much negative net worth. Mind you this is after a fresh capital infusion some time back and deposit-share conversion if I remember right.

Are their investments carried at market value? Is there something hidden there?

Fresher


Moderator
Moderator
I was more interested in the Hydro sector in the recent months. It was mentioned by various people in the forum as well as in this thread. It, however is quite dependent on the weather and something which we might be able to use to predict the earnings.
1) VPEL - largest player I believe with a good dividend yield
2) VLL - my choice at the moment; They have few projects going on according to their reports.
3) PAP - interesting due to the recent trades. Hemas bought a stake @ 3% in April and if they decide to buy more, it can trigger a Mandatory offer (a very low probability). There was a recent block done which has not been disclosed (I had a feeling that Hemas disposed?)

As per a snapshot I posted some time back, these 3 for me, outperform HPFL in many ways (HPFL is trading below book value) PAP has better profitability margins while, VPEL gives better return on assets/equity (These were based on last quarter results only)

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
3) PAP - interesting due to the recent trades. Hemas bought a stake @ 3% in April and if they decide to buy more, it can trigger a Mandatory offer (a very low probability). There was a recent block done which has not been disclosed (I had a feeling that Hemas disposed?)

If the hemas was the seller i feel they should have disclosed by now.

Fresher


Moderator
Moderator
@Gaja wrote:3) PAP - interesting due to the recent trades. Hemas bought a stake @ 3% in April and if they decide to buy more, it can trigger a Mandatory offer (a very low probability). There was a recent block done which has not been disclosed (I had a feeling that Hemas disposed?)

If the hemas was the seller i feel they should have disclosed by now.


That was just a feeling because if I had looked right, only Hemas had that much holding, unless it was done in multiple blocks, which I did not check.

Anyways, it is unlikely that they saw this as a very short term investment and sold at a loss.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
RENu results for Dec is out.
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/569_1389868131.pdf

Present NAV is Rs 500
9 Month eps is 34+

Only if the management is generous to treat minorty holder with real dividend. Rs 4 was an insult. When cash balance is nearly Rs 200 per share.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Please note below ( said last week )

@slstock wrote:


This  trend needs to continue upto about 6300-6500 taking small breaks in the middle ( so don't panic for red days).  There will be resistance at around 6200 I presume if not sooner next week.  

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

CDB.X traded at Rs 44.8 today. CDB.,N still at Rs 48!!!

When N was around Rs 40, CDB.X was about Rs 30. Huge mismatch. N cannot stay this way forever. Maybe some people here remember the bulls when this N was trading between Rs 80-100 during 2011.

Btw, this is an observation. Fundamental I explained before . I hold CDB so don;t get influenced by my comment without looking at the facts.














prabath


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:
CDB.X traded at Rs 44.8 today. CDB.,N still at Rs 48!!!

When N was around Rs 40,   CDB.X was about Rs 30.  Huge mismatch.  N cannot stay this way forever.  Maybe some people here  remember the bulls  when this N was trading between Rs 80-100 during 2011.

Btw, this is an observation. Fundamental I explained before . I hold CDB so don;t get influenced by my comment without looking at the facts.



Answer is simple,
N and X share holders(top 20) are different so as the share price movement as well.Now how did Xclose less than 40 today.That's how it happens.I've already identified who's behind it.Ahead of the game. Wink

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