CSE in 2014 and fundamental shares that have underperformed

Gaja wrote:3) PAP - interesting due to the recent trades. Hemas bought a stake @ 3% in April and if they decide to buy more, it can trigger a Mandatory offer (a very low probability). There was a recent block done which has not been disclosed (I had a feeling that Hemas disposed?)

If the hemas was the seller i feel they should have disclosed by now.

That was just a feeling because if I had looked right, only Hemas had that much holding, unless it was done in multiple blocks, which I did not check.

Anyways, it is unlikely that they saw this as a very short term investment and sold at a loss.

RENu results for Dec is out.
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/569_1389868131.pdf

Present NAV is Rs 500
9 Month eps is 34+

Only if the management is generous to treat minorty holder with real dividend. Rs 4 was an insult. When cash balance is nearly Rs 200 per share.

Please note below ( said last week )

slstock wrote:


This  trend needs to continue upto about 6300-6500 taking small breaks in the middle ( so don't panic for red days).  There will be resistance at around 6200 I presume if not sooner next week.  

CDB.X traded at Rs 44.8 today. CDB.,N still at Rs 48!!!

When N was around Rs 40, CDB.X was about Rs 30. Huge mismatch. N cannot stay this way forever. Maybe some people here remember the bulls when this N was trading between Rs 80-100 during 2011.

Btw, this is an observation. Fundamental I explained before . I hold CDB so don;t get influenced by my comment without looking at the facts.

slstock wrote:
CDB.X traded at Rs 44.8 today. CDB.,N still at Rs 48!!!

When N was around Rs 40,   CDB.X was about Rs 30.  Huge mismatch.  N cannot stay this way forever.  Maybe some people here  remember the bulls  when this N was trading between Rs 80-100 during 2011.

Btw, this is an observation. Fundamental I explained before . I hold CDB so don;t get influenced by my comment without looking at the facts.

Answer is simple,
N and X share holders(top 20) are different so as the share price movement as well.Now how did Xclose less than 40 today.That's how it happens.I've already identified who's behind it.Ahead of the game. Wink

Also CDB.X only 8 mil shares with small public float making it move quicker than anticipated!

Cheers!

Is Balangoda a undervalued share ?

We all know why X is moving ahead of N . X is more illiquid as rappaport said. Also we know the top shares holders of X is Coco Shell.

The point is N cannot stay at these prices / quiet this way if the overall market moves. If it does at the current prices N is more valuable. But it is funny to see CINS N vs X gap ;-)

prabath wrote:

slstock wrote:
CDB.X traded at Rs 44.8 today. CDB.,N still at Rs 48!!!

When N was around Rs 40,   CDB.X was about Rs 30.  Huge mismatch.  N cannot stay this way forever.  Maybe some people here  remember the bulls  when this N was trading between Rs 80-100 during 2011.

Btw, this is an observation. Fundamental I explained before . I hold CDB so don;t get influenced by my comment without looking at the facts.

Answer is simple,
N and X share holders(top 20) are different so as the share price movement as well.Now how did Xclose less than 40 today.That's how it happens.I've already identified who's behind it.Ahead of the game. Wink

Based on NAV ( revalued on bio assets) ,  BALA is  undervalued.  But unless there is plantation run ,  we cannot expect BALA to move based on the  NAV.  The real cash cow share is KGAL. There will be a time for all these shares in the future. Overall market run, Sector run, individual runs etc. The bull is warming up still.

btw , Am not into plantations right now. Need to get some cash released first from shares I hold.

raezor wrote:

Is Balangoda a undervalued share ?

Fundamental :
There is  NAV 95  , RS 3 dividend company beaten to ground due to last 2 quarters being rather bad.   Hint it is rather illiquid. IF you are a trader , this maybe not right for you as there was/is an opportunity cost for holding.

Plantation rallies are usually cyclical. you may need to hold until rally comes time to time.

Still not too late to figure out .... ;-)

slstock wrote:Okay TFC is at Rs 15 ( with masive negative assets) running  on  some rumor.

Can you think of other similar value shares in that price range and same sector now with greater
a)
b)
c)

slstock wrote:Fundamental :
There is  NAV 95  , RS 3 dividend company beaten to ground due to last 2 quarters being rather bad.   Hint it is rather illiquid. IF you are a trader , this maybe  not right for you as there was/is an opportunity cost for holding.

and starts with C ?

Think it's LWL   

Fresher wrote:

slstock wrote:Fundamental :
There is  NAV 95  , RS 3 dividend company beaten to ground due to last 2 quarters being rather bad.   Hint it is rather illiquid. IF you are a trader , this maybe  not right for you as there was/is an opportunity cost for holding.

and starts with C ?

One of them. TFIL , eps will be about 3. NAV  will be 13 this quarter. Not to forget IPO price was Rs 20.

slstock wrote:Still not too late to figure out .... ;-)

slstock wrote:Okay TFC is at Rs 15 ( with masive negative assets) running  on  some rumor.

Can you think of other similar value shares in that price range and same sector now with greater
a)
b)
c)

slstock wrote:One of them. TFIL , eps will be about 3. NAV  will be 13 this quarter.

slstock wrote:Still not too late to figure out .... ;-)

slstock wrote:Okay TFC is at Rs 15 ( with masive negative assets) running  on  some rumor.

Can you think of other similar value shares in that price range and same sector now with greater
a)
b)
c)

@ Slstock,Any guess as with whom they will merge??

This CB policy is a bit unclear. Since 1 group can 1 fin company TFIL does not have to merge.
But then again under latest TFIL is in CAt B due to assets.

From TFIL point of view they will not want to merge with anyone weak in their best interest. So DP group, CRL, CDB all seem candiates. ( there are more)

Leon wrote:

slstock wrote:One of them. TFIL , eps will be about 3. NAV  will be 13 this quarter.

slstock wrote:Still not too late to figure out .... ;-)

slstock wrote:Okay TFC is at Rs 15 ( with masive negative assets) running  on  some rumor.

Can you think of other similar value shares in that price range and same sector now with greater
a)
b)
c)

@ Slstock,Any guess as with whom they will merge??

Update :  I first hinted about TFIL  in this thread , when it was in the Rs 14s. Then again 15-16.

Traders Note:  there might be resistance around Rs 20 due to several factors.But if it crosses it with big volume ,   there can be big jumps in price.

Sadly my holding in this is not a lot.

COCR  is another good share , but it has already recovered 50% from bottom and  NAV is much lower compared to TFIL/PLC. Not saying COCR  can not  shoot up more  (if the players are active) . PLC is in samee category but with higher NAV of 12.

If the bull breaks  loose for any  share it will be like a "Bull in a china shop"


I still see many share that have not moved much though market has moved from 5800-6250.

Some shares may keep silent for a long time but when they move they can explode BOOM.  Some time beaten down shares can jump 10% in 10 minutes and never will see the price again.

This is where Trader might  not have time to react  or judge when to sell and buy back compared to investors who patiently hold. 

Think people should  identify more potential shares like this with reasons without worrying about ASI or market volatiity,
When their time comes,  your holding pay offs.

But people should choose what best suites them. Trading or Investing. It depends on your need, expectation, holdign power and patience.

slstock wrote:One of them. TFIL , eps will be about 3. NAV  will be 13 this quarter.  Not to forget IPO price was Rs 20.

slstock wrote:Still not too late to figure out .... ;-)

slstock wrote:Okay TFC is at Rs 15 ( with masive negative assets) running  on  some rumor.

Can you think of other similar value shares in that price range and same sector now with greater
a)
b)
c)

 

Well Harry never learns.

Realstock/Harry  you never learn. Sometime there is only one option when people don't listen to be ethical.



I clearly mentioned to give reasons.

balapas wrote:Well Harry never learns.

?Real stock- reincarnation of Harry the clapper.

Yes, I wish he follow ethics ( to list shares with reasons without blindly mentioning share names)
But he edoesn't.

K.Haputantri wrote:?Real stock- reincarnation of Harry the clapper.

There is another Share in the present hot sector which had not gain attention though counter parts have run ;-)


Btw on TFIl which I hinter at Rs 14 and then again stated at Rs 15-16.

By no means this is a price target to follow blindly.
So no blind following or blames games if it doesn't get there

This is just a educational calculation :

After this quarter . TFIL NAV will be about 13.

If at 2 times Book value Price will be : Rs 26

There are roughly 56.8 mil shares,

So at Rs 26 ( just for argument)
TFIL totally is worth 26*56.8 = 1.48 billion

Interestingly their Assets are at 1.405 Bil by Sept ( liabilities about 0.7 bil)

Estimated earning will be well over 150 mil this year.

I see CFL running ahead of TFIL right now with lesser book value.

If they get merged how much will be the target price for a company like this. Good question right?

Disclosure : I hold a limited quantity of this share (sadly) . Already over 60% profit so anything above Rs 20 will be bonus for me.

Oh no they heard me   

It just started to move before I could released money to buy   

slstock wrote:There is another Share in the present hot sector which had not gain attention though counter parts have run ;-)

TFIL hit Rs 20 today. Now we see the resistance mentioned below.

slstock wrote:Update :  I first hinted about TFIL  in this thread , when it was in the Rs 14s. Then again 15-16.

Traders Note:  there might be resistance around Rs 20 due to several factors.But if it crosses it with big volume ,   there can be big jumps in price.

ALLI after a long sleep started to raise its head today with some big buying. Some big seller was trying to exit and that is why this was dragged too much down.

BTw, there is Land sector share, that can give a huge surprise if our calculations are correct. It as also mentioned in this thread by another ;-)

slstock wrote:ALLI after a long sleep started to raise its head today with some big buying. Some big seller was trying to exit and that is why this was dragged too much down.

BTw, there is Land sector share, that can give a huge surprise if our calculations are correct. It as also mentioned in this thread by another ;-)

You mean SHAW What is the prediction? are they going to sell other lands?

Traders/investors of TFIL note what I said earlier as below.

On technical grounds it would be good for TIFL to fall to Rs18-19 for couple of days.

But falling below Rs 18 might not be a good sign.

On fundamental grounds still TFIL is not overvalued on earnigns and assets.

slstock wrote: TFIL hit Rs 20 today.  Now we see the resistance mentioned below.

slstock wrote:Update :  I first hinted about TFIL  in this thread , when it was in the Rs 14s. Then again 15-16.

Traders Note:  there might be resistance around Rs 20 due to several factors.But if it crosses it with big volume ,   there can be big jumps in price.

Dec 31st results  out. You can compare  with the below comments I made.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/1102_1391677700820.pdf
 
Very good growth  during difficult times ( though a small company).

As expected annual eps will be around  Rs 3.  By March end NAV should probably be Rs 14!
( more than PLC, SFIN, COCR CFL )


If they merge, it will be in their best interest to go with a strong company
( ex:  PLC , CFIN, LFIN/VFIN,ALLI , CDB , MERC etc).

They have opened up  branch ( es ?) in the North. The potential partner might also look at that factor.

Hmm...which strong company does not have a branch in the North?

slstock wrote:There is another Share in the present hot sector which had not gain attention though counter parts have run ;-)


Btw on TFIl which I hinter at Rs 14 and then again stated at Rs 15-16.

By no means this is  a price target to follow blindly.
So no blind following or blames games if it doesn't get there  

This is just a educational calculation :

After this quarter . TFIL NAV  will be about 13.  

If at  2 times Book value  Price will be  : Rs 26

There are roughly 56.8 mil shares,

So at Rs 26 ( just for argument)  
TFIL totally is worth  26*56.8 = 1.48 billion

Interestingly their Assets are at 1.405  Bil by Sept ( liabilities about 0.7 bil)

Estimated earning will be well over 150 mil this year.

I see CFL running ahead of TFIL right now with lesser book value.

If they get merged  how much will be the target price  for a company like this.  Good question right?

Disclosure : I hold a limited quantity of this share (sadly) . Already over 60% profit so anything above Rs 20 will be bonus for me.