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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CSE in 2014 and fundamental shares that have underperformed

CSE in 2014 and fundamental shares that have underperformed

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Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Realstock/Harry  you never learn. Sometime there is only one option when people don't listen to be ethical.



I clearly mentioned to give reasons.



@balapas wrote:Well Harry never learns.

K.Haputantri


Co-Admin
?Real stock- reincarnation of Harry the clapper.

Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Yes, I wish he follow ethics ( to list shares with reasons without blindly mentioning share names)
But he edoesn't.


@K.Haputantri wrote:?Real stock- reincarnation of Harry the clapper.

Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
There is another Share in the present hot sector which had not gain attention though counter parts have run ;-)


Btw on TFIl which I hinter at Rs 14 and then again stated at Rs 15-16.

By no means this is a price target to follow blindly.
So no blind following or blames games if it doesn't get there


This is just a educational calculation :

After this quarter . TFIL NAV will be about 13.

If at 2 times Book value Price will be : Rs 26

There are roughly 56.8 mil shares,

So at Rs 26 ( just for argument)
TFIL totally is worth 26*56.8 = 1.48 billion

Interestingly their Assets are at 1.405 Bil by Sept ( liabilities about 0.7 bil)

Estimated earning will be well over 150 mil this year.

I see CFL running ahead of TFIL right now with lesser book value.

If they get merged how much will be the target price for a company like this. Good question right?

Disclosure : I hold a limited quantity of this share (sadly) . Already over 60% profit so anything above Rs 20 will be bonus for me.

Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Oh no they heard me  tongue 

It just started to move before I could released money to buy  silent 


@slstock wrote:There is another Share in the present hot sector which had not gain attention though counter parts have run ;-)

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
TFIL hit Rs 20 today. Now we see the resistance mentioned below.



@slstock wrote:Update :  I first hinted about TFIL  in this thread , when it was in the Rs 14s. Then again 15-16.

Traders Note:  there might be resistance around Rs 20 due to several factors.But if it crosses it with big volume ,   there can be big jumps in price.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
ALLI after a long sleep started to raise its head today with some big buying. Some big seller was trying to exit and that is why this was dragged too much down.

BTw, there is Land sector share, that can give a huge surprise if our calculations are correct. It as also mentioned in this thread by another ;-)



seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:ALLI after a long sleep started to raise its head today with some big buying. Some big seller was trying to exit and that is why this was dragged too much down.

BTw, there is Land sector share, that can give a huge surprise if our calculations are correct. It as also mentioned in this thread by another ;-)




You mean SHAW What is the prediction? are they going to sell other lands?

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Traders/investors of TFIL note what I said earlier as below.

On technical grounds it would be good for TIFL to fall to Rs18-19 for couple of days.

But falling below Rs 18 might not be a good sign.

On fundamental grounds still TFIL is not overvalued on earnigns and assets.



@slstock wrote: TFIL hit Rs 20 today.  Now we see the resistance mentioned below.



@slstock wrote:Update :  I first hinted about TFIL  in this thread , when it was in the Rs 14s. Then again 15-16.

Traders Note:  there might be resistance around Rs 20 due to several factors.But if it crosses it with big volume ,   there can be big jumps in price.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Dec 31st results  out. You can compare  with the below comments I made.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/1102_1391677700820.pdf
 
Very good growth  during difficult times ( though a small company).

As expected annual eps will be around  Rs 3.  By March end NAV should probably be Rs 14!
( more than PLC, SFIN, COCR CFL )


If they merge, it will be in their best interest to go with a strong company
( ex:  PLC , CFIN, LFIN/VFIN,ALLI , CDB , MERC etc).

They have opened up  branch ( es ?) in the North. The potential partner might also look at that factor.

Hmm...which strong company does not have a branch in the North?





@slstock wrote:There is another Share in the present hot sector which had not gain attention though counter parts have run ;-)


Btw on TFIl which I hinter at Rs 14 and then again stated at Rs 15-16.

By no means this is  a price target to follow blindly.
So no blind following or blames games if it doesn't get there  


This is just a educational calculation :

After this quarter . TFIL NAV  will be about 13.  

If at  2 times Book value  Price will be  : Rs 26

There are roughly 56.8 mil shares,

So at Rs 26 ( just for argument)  
TFIL totally is worth  26*56.8 = 1.48 billion

Interestingly their Assets are at 1.405  Bil by Sept ( liabilities about 0.7 bil)

Estimated earning will be well over 150 mil this year.

I see CFL running ahead of TFIL right now with lesser book value.

If they get merged  how much will be the target price  for a company like this.  Good question right?

Disclosure : I hold a limited quantity of this share (sadly) . Already over 60% profit so anything above Rs 20 will be bonus for me.



Last edited by slstock on Thu Feb 06, 2014 6:53 pm; edited 2 times in total

Aubrey Perera


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
I'm holding on stocky!!! my PF looked down after TFIL dropped but I'm more confident now after seeing results. Now only to see what plans will unfold.

jonta999

jonta999
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Can we expect a 1/= dividend this time ?

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Look at last dividend of 0.91, Rs 1 or even more is a high possivility ( if march goes according to plan).

BUT, before they declared final dividend ( unless they do a special one) we don;t know what will happen to TFIL with CB requests ( merger) ?

For any potential TFIL long term investors, that why I said it is important for TFIL ( if they merge) to go with a stronger company ( also playing similar dividends).

To be frank , if you look at past few years it is amazing how TFIL managed to grow consistently.
The management seems to be very efficient. They should not get mixed up with some weak company.
( BTw, TFIL is a family owned company of the Coorays)



@jonta999 wrote:Can we expect a 1/= dividend this time ?

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Laughing Laughing Laughing  AB! u r more SAFER now!

lets see hw the MARKET treat TFIL tomorrow!
GL!

kalum


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Look at last dividend of 0.91,  Rs 1  or even more is a high possivility ( if march goes according to plan).

BUT,   before they declared final dividend ( unless they do a special one)  we don;t know what will happen to TFIL with CB requests ( merger) ?

For any potential  TFIL  long term investors, that why I said it is important for TFIL ( if they merge)  to  go with a stronger company ( also playing similar dividends).  

To be frank , if you look at past few years it is amazing how TFIL managed to grow consistently.
The management seems to be very efficient. They should not get mixed up with some weak company.
( BTw, TFIL is a family owned company of the Coorays)
 


@jonta999 wrote:Can we expect a 1/= dividend this time ?

This is gr8! I couldn't enter in to it at very best level  Sad 

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Though fin sector is a hot topic now, don't forget to think about the sectors ;-)

Aubrey Perera


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yes kddnd happy but this might hv been expected. But lets see.

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Aubrey Perera wrote:Yes kddnd happy but this might hv been expected. But lets see.

Yes I totally agree!
As I felt..
in SRI LANKA - IN CSE
these important information passed out to among closed contact people well before the time we come to know it....
so those people already act and obtained benefits of the result!

by the time we come to know the MARKET has almost adjusted to the that price level....
then mostly we just have to observe but can't have the fruit of the result!

WE ARE IN THAT TYPE OF MARKET!!!! Sad Sad Sad

GL! Aubrey!


Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Guys, I won;t give out too much info but this share I was talking about, is trading significantly below NAV. Very less talked about share ;-).

IF/when this runs ( if market sentiments remain weak it may stay put) 40% from present price is valided by its fundamentals.

Shh.. can;t give too much info. I still have to collect when I can release money.




@slstock wrote:Oh no  they heard me  tongue 

It just  started to move before I could released money to buy  silent 


@slstock wrote:There is another Share in the present hot sector which had not gain attention though counter parts have run ;-)

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Incase people have not noticed RHL, is slowly improving its earings
( still expenses are eating into profits).

NAV is 50 now trading at Rs 31. If /when the players start pushing this it has lot of room to up .



Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
update on GLAS

Now at Rs 4.

This is share which was on my radar mainly due to high dividend yield.

Actually if one buy at Rs 4 , the dividend this year can exceed 10%.

But the way their business is performing is not satisfactory. Revenue dropping and profits too. If they pass the costs to customers ( to gain better profit) , they maybe loose some customers. Also if Govnment at some point lifts any importation embargoes on Glass containers GLAS can be in danger.

One thing glas can do is increase higher earning exports. This might be good solution if they can achieve.

Right now for shorter term trading GLAS is getting hotter. Long term now I have some reservations as above. Let see in 2 quarters.

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Incase people have not noticed RHL, is slowly improving its earings
( still expenses are eating into profits).

NAV is 50 now trading at Rs 31.  If /when the players start pushing this it has lot of room to up .


Thx SLS for inform...  Wink 

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Here is the what we were expecting. Rs 200 eps for Rs 260 share.
NAV 651.

now will they be not like stingy RENU managemnt and give the steaving share holder some bonus ;-)

Only correction it is not listed in land sector but but investment trust I think.


@slstock wrote:

BTw, there is Land sector share, that can give a huge surprise if our calculations are correct. It as also mentioned in this thread by another ;-)



pathfinder

pathfinder
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Here is the what we were expecting. Rs 200 eps for Rs 260 share.
NAV 651.

now will they be not like stingy RENU managemnt and give the steaving share holder some bonus ;-)

Only correction it is not listed in land sector but but investment trust I think.

Yes SHAW has reported good eps over 200,but revenue has not gone up,If you remove one off gain eps would be negative  Shocked

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
If they can't do proper business they can

pay off any liabilites, and return the money to share holders ( or do a share buy back)

even if they just deposit the money into long term FD/Debenture and do nothing, annual EPS can be huge. Might be better than doing projects they seem to be incapable of.

Of the annual EPS from income, Pay 70 % of as dividends each year , at current price SHAW holder will get well over 10% dividend

First option am serious, second option just for fun ...

third option start their projects and mess up the earnign haha.




@pathfinder wrote:
@slstock wrote:Here is the what we were expecting. Rs 200 eps for Rs 260 share.
NAV 651.

now will they be not like stingy RENU managemnt and give the steaving share holder some bonus ;-)

Only correction it is not listed in land sector but but investment trust I think.

Yes SHAW has reported good eps over 200,but revenue has not gone up,If you remove one off gain eps would be negative  Shocked

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