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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » DAILY CHRONICLE™ » Good news for LIOC

Good news for LIOC

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1Good news for LIOC Empty Good news for LIOC Sat Jan 18, 2014 7:54 am

Intelligent Investing


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
"CPC’s heavy losses rule out fuel price reduction"

http://www.island.lk/index.php?page_cat=news-section&page=news-section&code_title=59

This would mean that LIOC can maintain a margin and with crude oil prices coming down, they are in for a HUGE year

If crude oil prices remain low, CPC keeps price high and the CSE remains healthy, this share will do very well



Last edited by Intelligent Investing on Sat Jan 18, 2014 9:01 am; edited 1 time in total

2Good news for LIOC Empty Re: Good news for LIOC Sat Jan 18, 2014 7:58 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
II or balanced view , did you see the below ...


http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t32327-what-is-lioc-expected-value#190853

"Everyday several times, you'll talk about LIOC and price targets. It is obvious you have great interest in this share and few others.

Everybody in the forum knows already as you said it repeatedly. Mulitple times sometimes everyday.
Mention it once or twice and let the share be. If interest is there it will go up. You don't have to keep mentioning it and coming up with price targets every day. Same withj TJL and other shares you are intetested in.

For example : I say I hold XXX . With NAV of 60 and EPs of 10-12 how much you you think it is worth. Is it okay for me to mention it every single day several times and say it is worth Rs 100. NO. I hope you get the point.

Just give it a rest , relax and watch your favorite shares. If market interest stays this way , these shares will go up anyway until results prove otherwise."

3Good news for LIOC Empty Re: Good news for LIOC Sat Jan 18, 2014 9:01 am

Intelligent Investing


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic



@slstock wrote:II or balanced view , did you see the below ...


http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t32327-what-is-lioc-expected-value#190853

"Everyday several times,  you'll  talk about LIOC  and price targets.   It is obvious you have great interest in this share and few others.  

Everybody in the forum knows already as you said it repeatedly.  Mulitple times sometimes everyday.
Mention it once or twice and let the share be. If interest is there it will go up. You don't  have to keep mentioning it and coming up with price targets every day. Same withj TJL and other shares you are intetested in.

For example : I say I hold XXX .  With NAV of 60 and EPs of 10-12 how much you you think it is worth. Is it okay for me to mention it every single day several times and say it is worth Rs 100. NO.   I hope you get the point.

Just give it a  rest , relax and watch your favorite shares.  If market interest stays this way , these shares will go up anyway until results prove otherwise."


Ok changed it - better?

4Good news for LIOC Empty Re: Good news for LIOC Sat Jan 18, 2014 9:22 am

Fresher


Moderator
Moderator
Intelligent investing is to consider both good and bad sides. It should also account for present and future possible risks. Any company might do well now but performance might vary with the possible risks coming into play. Thus the reasons for varying multiples across sectors and companies.

5Good news for LIOC Empty Re: Good news for LIOC Sat Jan 18, 2014 9:31 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
This is a news item on CPC. This could be posted in news section right.

Heard of the Pala's makka story. Somehow you find a way to link everything to LIOC . You mentioned LIOC 50 times now in different topics and different ways. Let it take it natural path.

Don;t need alll this promotion right

6Good news for LIOC Empty Re: Good news for LIOC Sat Jan 18, 2014 10:40 am

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Agreed Slstock. Nowadays his balanced views are partial.

7Good news for LIOC Empty Re: Good news for LIOC Sat Jan 18, 2014 4:47 pm

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
NDB Securities (Pvt) Ltd. Research

Jan 16 (2 days ago)

to NDB

LIOC earnings update - 16.01.2013



Global crude prices stable – Global crude oil prices have remained relatively steady through FY13/14Q3 as we expected. We believe the upward pressure on prices will remain low with increasing shale oil supply.



Tighter margins – The government increased the excise duty on fuel imports with a hike of LKR 2.00 and LKR 0.50 per litre of petrol and diesel respectively in late November 2013.

In addition, the switch from 90 octane petrol to 92 octane petrol in January 2014 will increase costs for LIOC, which is unlikely to be passed on to consumers without a corresponding increase by Ceylon Petroleum Corporation.



The increases are expected to reduce margins for LIOC though the contraction is likely to be lower than our previous expectations due to easing global crude oil prices. Therefore, we believe even with the tighter margins LIOC will outperform our previous earnings estimate.



Expanding presence – LIOC is looking to expand its distribution network with an expansion of approximately 50 outlets expected to involve an investment of approximately LKR 1.5 Bn. The expansion is expected to bolster LIOC’s domestic fuel segment volumes in the medium term.



Significant upside due to re-rating – Since our last recommendation to buy, the share price has increased 39.8% excluding dividend while the ASPI has increased only by 1.7%. We have revised our target price for LIOC upward on the back of stronger forecasted earnings and lower required rate of return (due to 3 year treasury yield decreasing approximately 280 basis points). Thus we maintain our recommendation to buy.

P.S
No one take any responsibility This only a guidance for consideration.
DGD

8Good news for LIOC Empty Re: Good news for LIOC Sat Jan 18, 2014 5:38 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
DG,  this was not the  right thread to post this . Please read the issue and comments in this thread. This is for news item on CPC which is diverted to LIOC.

You info  can be posted on  so many other  threads on LIOC. Intelligent Investing has several himself on LIOC


@D.G.Dayaratne wrote:NDB Securities (Pvt) Ltd. Research

Jan 16 (2 days ago)

to NDB

LIOC earnings update - 16.01.2013


......................

P.S
No one take any responsibility This only a guidance for consideration.
DGD

9Good news for LIOC Empty Re: Good news for LIOC Sun Jan 19, 2014 11:17 am

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
slstock thanks

10Good news for LIOC Empty Re: Good news for LIOC Sun Jan 19, 2014 1:53 pm

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:DG,  this was not the  right thread to post this . Please read the issue and comments in this thread. This is for news item on CPC which is diverted to LIOC.

You info  can be posted on  so many other  threads on LIOC. Intelligent Investing has several himself on LIOC


@D.G.Dayaratne wrote:NDB Securities (Pvt) Ltd. Research

Jan 16 (2 days ago)

to NDB

LIOC earnings update - 16.01.2013


......................

P.S
No one take any responsibility This only a guidance for consideration.
DGD

Of course Thx SLSTOCK....  Wink  thank you very much .....!!!

11Good news for LIOC Empty Re: Good news for LIOC Sun Jan 19, 2014 2:06 pm

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hi DG

Can u upload this report on the research section or post the link pls??

Cheers!

@D.G.Dayaratne wrote:NDB Securities (Pvt) Ltd. Research

Jan 16 (2 days ago)

to NDB

LIOC earnings update - 16.01.2013



Global crude prices stable – Global crude oil prices have remained relatively steady through FY13/14Q3 as we expected. We believe the upward pressure on prices will remain low with increasing shale oil supply.



Tighter margins – The government increased the excise duty on fuel imports with a hike of LKR 2.00 and LKR 0.50 per litre of petrol and diesel respectively in late November 2013.

In addition, the switch from 90 octane petrol to 92 octane petrol in January 2014 will increase costs for LIOC, which is unlikely to be passed on to consumers without a corresponding increase by Ceylon Petroleum Corporation.



The increases are expected to reduce margins for LIOC though the contraction is likely to be lower than our previous expectations due to easing global crude oil prices. Therefore, we believe even with the tighter margins LIOC will outperform our previous earnings estimate.



Expanding presence – LIOC is looking to expand its distribution network with an expansion of approximately 50 outlets expected to involve an investment of approximately LKR 1.5 Bn. The expansion is expected to bolster LIOC’s domestic fuel segment volumes in the medium term.



Significant upside due to re-rating – Since our last recommendation to buy, the share price has increased 39.8% excluding dividend while the ASPI has increased only by 1.7%. We have revised our target price for LIOC upward on the back of stronger forecasted earnings and lower required rate of return (due to 3 year treasury yield decreasing approximately 280 basis points). Thus we maintain our recommendation to buy.

P.S
No one take any responsibility This only a guidance for consideration.
DGD

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