Good work Pras!!
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@prasa2004 wrote:@slstock wrote:Very good study. Good job.
Cat A : 2 more SFCL and MBSL . There are a few more including Sampath Leasing and Factoring Ltd where I cannot find financial to confirm?
VFIN and LFIN : in same group. Per gorup there can be 1 finance company if I read it correct. So Both LFIN and VFIN cannot exist if true.
NTB : You sure they are short of capital requirement? How are you calculating the Cap requirement? Are you purely looking at Stated Capital only ?@prasa2004 wrote:Cat A - Assets 8 bn and Cap 1bn. Based on interim statements for Sep, following are through.
LFIN-VFIN-PLC-LOFC-CLC-COCR-CDB-CRL-CFIN-ALLI-MERC-SFCL-BFN. Questionable TFC as it may have failed to have good compliance and SFIN has a shortfall by 0.4m to meet assets criteria. ( I could not find the 4-5 others as slide says 19)
As for the pvt banks PABC, NTB, UBL are short of 10bn capital which needs to fulfill by 2016.
my guesses - 1) PABC will merge with LFIN thereby fulfilling Cap needs + Group issue. (PABC and SAMP, has two diverse IT platforms and latter has strong staff loyalty I cannot think PABC and SAMP will merge.
2) VFIN will gobble Cat B company and but has to grab someone with good financials (ex. TFIL-AFSL-AMW etc ) as else its share get hammered.
3) ALLI may merge with ARPI as latter main shareholder is ALLI
4) UBL with UBF (unquoted) obvious merge. Besides if foreign deal fails, need to align to a big bank (SAMP?) as capital is short
5) LOFC will gobble CLC
6) CFL - may go with AMCL.
7) will COCR acquire TFIL or AAF?
8)PLC will acquire PMB
9) HDFC is short of Cap ( need to have 5bn) and hence may merge with NSB or BOC/PB
+ PMB trading below NAV
Interesting time ahead. if we can do maths properly and come up with close guesses and bet on correct horse in advance. Slightly better to focus on Cat A companies and companies with less than NAV in Cat B for buying shares.
Thank You for encouragement
For your info MBSL is not a NBFI (http://www.cbsl.gov.lk/pics_n_docs/01_home/docs/banner_2_e.pdf ) as it is a LSB. I have mentioned SFCL as SFC. (so corrected)
Among the weakest in Cat B are MFL, BLI, ORIN, SFS, SMB, CSF, ETI etc so i suppose there will be clamor to grab the better ones ( TFIL-AFSL -AMCL etc)
As for NTB you are correct as they have improved in Sep QTR so safe (I stand corrected)
Last edited by slstock on Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:59 pm; edited 3 times in total
Last edited by realstock on Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:26 am; edited 1 time in total
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