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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Millennium Development - IPO

Millennium Development - IPO

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1Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Millennium Development - IPO Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:56 am

investor1984

investor1984
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
First issue of the 2014 after a IPO barren year of 2013. What do you guys/gals thinks of the IPO??? Definitely there are some issues with regard to their recognition in income ( 75% completion of houses still considered the full revenue ). Company having the ties to stinky Ceylinco history.

But the IPO seems to be ok, first IPO after long time, below 200 million issue, Rs 6 per share. Asanga Senevirathne & Dharmadasa's involvements. Will it be a good IPO for a bad share??? Share your thoughts

2Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Re: Millennium Development - IPO Sun Jan 26, 2014 11:35 am

Kithsiri

Kithsiri
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Why do we have to rush when the same can be bought much cheaper on the open floor after the IPO?
Some of the concerns that have been mentioned above too will be in the back of the mind of many individual investors when deciding to buy or not.
So we wait.  Very Happy 

3Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Re: Millennium Development - IPO Sun Jan 26, 2014 11:42 am

investor1984

investor1984
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
obviously, not only we might be able to grab this share lower than issue price in the future, we can invest what ever funds we are going to invest in the IPO in a fundamentally strong share ( very few we have )

I am not talking about a sound investment, I am talking about cashing in on IPO.Yes IPO trend is over, still there is a good chance for making 10%-15% gain on first date trading. We all must remember that we are not living in New York,London or Tokyo... this is sri lanka , this is CSE, no point of always talking about fundamentals, holding long term... we have to follow the trend too



Last edited by investor1984 on Sun Jan 26, 2014 11:44 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : typo)

4Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Re: Millennium Development - IPO Sun Jan 26, 2014 12:45 pm

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I am re-posting this comment I made in some other thread
*********************
I just wanted to find a clue for the reasons why this IPO was delayed from 2011. Some doubtful aspects

Ford Rhodes audited the financial statements for the year 2009/2012/2013.In between Tudor v perera and company has audited 2010 & 2011. Still you can find Auditors Qualifications and grey areas of transaction and accounting treatments. page 105-106.

This means the accounting were in a big soup, which in between they have used another auditor to icing it up to get the company ready for IPO. They have used Ford Rhodes for the last 02 years to give some weight to the audit .

What I could understand from the prospectus was the Company has proposed additional units of 567 and for that they need 800mn. Out of this 192 mn will be raised from public apart from the reserves and pre selling.. So on average a unit going to cost Rs.1.41?.. May be the balance work in progress..!

looks like another one to suck the blood out

i am presenting here my views. Please share your views ... so everyone can get a better picture / evaluate the worthiness of this share

5Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Re: Millennium Development - IPO Sun Jan 26, 2014 12:50 pm

investor1984

investor1984
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I have to agree on the fact that lots of fishy things happening regard to this company/IPO. Still companies like CIFL with worse track-record at the point of IPO had fabulous first few days in the trading.. here the name of the game is manipulation

6Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Re: Millennium Development - IPO Sun Jan 26, 2014 5:07 pm

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
I think this IPO is fairly valued and the issue is also relatively small. More chances to be a successful one. 

On the other hand even at the issue price Nation Lanka and Anilana will have 400% ROI within couple of years.

7Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Re: Millennium Development - IPO Sun Jan 26, 2014 5:42 pm

dhanurrox


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Still retailers are lacking and will the existing small players subscribe this when there's bull around and money making opportunities with that?.Likely to get oversubscribed with less applications with large amounts.

8Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Re: Millennium Development - IPO Sun Jan 26, 2014 7:05 pm

investor1984

investor1984
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
there was 1 to 6 sub division before the IPO. Initial right issue was at Rs 10.So the initial investors got shares for around Rs 1.50. But the good thing is bcoz of the lock in period they wont be able to dump the shares on first day and get hefty capital gain. So the first day wont be flooded with below Rs 6 shares.

Other factor is that CSF is one of highly manipulated shares, lot of play with share most of the time. And it is well known fact that lot of manipulators are stuck with CSF bought at high price. Bcoz of the CSF holding of Millennium development, price increase of Millennium development will give CSF price a big boost. So the people who have interest in CSF will try to inflate the price of Millennium development.

Other factor is that retail customer only have to apply for Rs 80 million ( that is with the issue of second trench of shares which is subject to over subscription of first trench of shares). Since we didn't have IPO's for long time my belief is that small investors got capacity to subscribe for this IPO.

Given all these factors my guess is that this IPO going to have a good first day.

9Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Re: Millennium Development - IPO Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:03 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@investor1984 wrote:there was 1 to 6 sub division before the IPO. Initial right issue was at Rs 10.So the initial investors got shares for around Rs 1.50. But the good thing is bcoz of the lock in period they wont be able to dump the shares on first day and get hefty capital gain. So the first day wont be flooded with below Rs 6 shares.

Other factor is that CSF is one of highly manipulated shares, lot of play with share most of the time. And it is well known fact that lot of manipulators are stuck with CSF bought at high price. Bcoz of the CSF holding of Millennium development, price increase of Millennium development will give CSF price a big boost. So the people who have interest in CSF will try to inflate the price of Millennium development.

Other factor is that retail customer only have to apply for Rs 80 million ( that is with the issue of second trench of shares which is subject to over subscription of first trench of shares). Since we didn't have IPO's for long time my belief is that small investors got capacity to subscribe for this IPO.

Given all these factors my guess is that this IPO going to have a good first day.

Nice logic man.. Lets apply then  Wink 

10Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Re: Millennium Development - IPO Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:13 pm

investor1984

investor1984
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Wish that logic works here,nothing work here, I have seen guys putting lot of time explaining support & resistance, head & shoulders, candle, etc in here. But do they apply here????  Those are meant for advance markets. those were created based on history of trading of shares in advance markets, shares with million of dollar market capitalization & tradings per day in thousands& number of investors in tens of thousands.  

So no logic for our small CSE, it will be always magic. lets invest money we gonna expend on booze & casinos on investments in CSE.  Laughing 



Last edited by investor1984 on Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:16 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : typo)

11Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Re: Millennium Development - IPO Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:16 pm

dhanurrox


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@investor1984 wrote:Wis that logic works here,nothing work here, I have seen guys putting lot of time explaining support & resistance, head & shoulders, candle, etc in here. But do they apply here????  Those are meant for advance markets. those were created based on history of trading of shares in advance market, shares with million of dollar market capitalization & tradings per day in thousands& number of investors in tens of thousands.  

So no logic for our small CSE, it will be always magic. lets invest money we gonna expend on booze & casinos on investments in CSE. Wink
Fully Agree.

12Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Re: Millennium Development - IPO Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:22 pm

Kithsiri

Kithsiri
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
So in the nutshell, most guys are professing here is that No Logic applies in CSE and then I wonder what sort of tools available for us other than the Gut feeling?  Very Happy 

13Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Re: Millennium Development - IPO Sun Jan 26, 2014 11:03 pm

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
There were lot of magics done at the expense of small investors.

Make a mistake once and it becomes a lesson.Make the same mistake twice, and it becomes a choice

14Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Re: Millennium Development - IPO Sun Jan 26, 2014 11:10 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@investor1984 wrote:Wish that logic works here,nothing work here, I have seen guys putting lot of time explaining support & resistance, head & shoulders, candle, etc in here. But do they apply here????  Those are meant for advance markets. those were created based on history of trading of shares in advance markets, shares with million of dollar market capitalization & tradings per day in thousands& number of investors in tens of thousands.  

So no logic for our small CSE, it will be always magic. lets invest money we gonna expend on booze & casinos on investments in CSE.  Laughing 

I know that u hate technical, so I dont wanna go about it and argue with you.. TA is highly subjective in nature.
Firstly, TA theories are based on fundamental rules - demand and supply. Then also it believes "History tends to repeat itself". So whether the market is big or small, TA covers 'em all..

However, the patterns, formations can sometimes, get contradictory to even techies as they may see those differently as per their perspectives. U know its all in the 'eye' of the person who interprets it.. We all cannot be Leonardo Da vinci's rite? So to master some art, a lot of practice, patience might be needed.

Despite inconsistencies in the way ppl see it.. I can say it helped me making profitable trades as well as timing the investments ;)SO I'm using it whether any tom, dick or harry say its useless  Razz



Last edited by smallville on Sun Jan 26, 2014 11:10 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : typo)

15Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Re: Millennium Development - IPO Mon Jan 27, 2014 8:51 am

investor1984

investor1984
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Nice to hear that lucky few are making profit using technical analysis.. good for you Smallville .. all the best on future investments based on technical analysis.

16Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Re: Millennium Development - IPO Thu Jan 30, 2014 10:01 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@investor1984 wrote:Nice to hear that lucky few are making profit using technical analysis.. good for you Smallville .. all the best on future investments based on technical analysis.  

Thanks.. Smile

That's where u've gone wrong about investments... Future investments are not based on TA at all, those only depend on performance of companies.. TA may give you just an entry point where we enter at a certain value which can be considered good. There's no point in getting to a horse at the end of a race..

Dileepa has come up with few tools where as investors, for example, CSE Screener, is one of such we might really find useful in taking decisions. Those actually make the time consuming work a less one. So what's left for us to do is to read-between-the-lines of ARs to pin point opportunities or weaknesses.

17Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Re: Millennium Development - IPO Thu Jan 30, 2014 10:43 am

nimantha80


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Amana showed the way yesterday for IPO's.Good luck if you are after this.In this bull what IPO'S.

18Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Re: Millennium Development - IPO Sat Feb 01, 2014 4:01 pm

investor1984

investor1984
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I had pleasant experiences with IPO's. But i do not keep any share bought at IPO, i ump them on the first date, except for TJL which I still holding and LGL which sold after few months.

I did not invest in Millenium, I really thought its a good IPO sorely bcoz of the fact that its a small issue with few famous people's involvement in the company.

But after hearing that only one application was received by LSL a day prior to 28th, i decide not to invest. I thought it wont get over subscribed. But it was over subscribed on the first day. Who knows... may be I have missed a chance to earn some easy cash.

19Millennium Development - IPO  Empty Re: Millennium Development - IPO Sat Feb 01, 2014 5:30 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
OMG investor1984 is back again Smile Smile

sign of bull Smile

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