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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » JKH - Report Dec 31st

JKH - Report Dec 31st

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1JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty JKH - Report Dec 31st Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:33 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/508_1390989173113.pdf

Eps of 3.48  vs 3.29 ( yes this is after right issue increase)
NAV 119.

JKH still delivers !



Last edited by slstock on Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:39 pm; edited 1 time in total

2JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:37 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Yes good performance when comparing the market conditions

3JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Wed Jan 29, 2014 7:39 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Counter is trading at a higher value of net asset value of the company which asserts that positive outlook of the Group. Foreign investors consider the counter appealing as sunlight after storm. Comparing the EPS presented with that of previous period, before the rights issue, would demonstrate the real potentiality or inherent capacity for growth of the group.

4JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:11 pm

Intelligent Investing


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@slstock wrote:http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/508_1390989173113.pdf

Eps of 3.48  vs 3.29 ( yes this is after right issue increase)
NAV 119.

JKH still delivers !

Yes great results!

5JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:28 pm

knockknobbler


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
One important issue.
It is evident , that the  proposed  Water front Project , will affect significantly to JKH  future profitability . 
This is what the Q3 Report says about the project.

INVESTMENT INTO WATERFRONT PROPERTIES (PRIVATE) LIMITED (THE “PROJECT COMPANY”)
John Keells Holdings PLC (JKH) had proposed to the Government of Sri Lanka a project, valued in excess of USD 650mn, involving the developing, owning, managing, operating, selling, leasing and renting a luxury multi/mixed use Integrated Resort (the “Project”)
The two Gazettes in relation to the Project, published under the Strategic Development Projects Act on the 18th of July 2013 and  23rd of September 2013 respectively were withdrawn. The Project was re-gazetted under the same Act on the 17th of December 2013.

The Act makes available tax, duty and other concessions



Nothing about "gaming activity". As we know it is not included in the Gazette Notification.

Now , this is what Amba Reserch say, in their  CSE initiated, Earnings Review Note dated  8 November 2013 ,

Our take on the WDP
We have arrived at a project valuation of LKR25.0bn, and we forecast this project will contribute LKR24 per share to JKH’s estimated price range, based on a 9.8% risk-free rate, a 5.0% equity risk premium and a beta of 1.3 (considering the risk of the project). However, our estimates suggest that

]if JKH is unable to obtain at least 32% of the gaming net profit (PAT), it would result in the WDP generating negative NPV from the project.

As I understand,  “Prospective Investors”( whose actions mainly determine the share price ),  look at these facts , figures, research ,and  future forecasts for next 2-5 years .
( I am not sure how many of Forum members fall into that category. )

6JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Wed Jan 29, 2014 10:09 pm

econ

econ
Global Moderator
market giant shows positive results.. lets see other reports from market heavy weights like CTC, COMB, NEST etc..

7JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Wed Jan 29, 2014 11:51 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@econ wrote:market giant shows positive results.. lets see other reports from market heavy weights like CTC, COMB, NEST etc..

One member said comm might produuce 11+ PAT, am expecting above 10+ will wait and see, there exposure to gold very minimal.

8JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Wed Jan 29, 2014 11:52 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@knockknobbler wrote:One important issue.
It is evident , that the  proposed  Water front Project , will affect significantly to JKH  future profitability . 
This is what the Q3 Report says about the project.

INVESTMENT INTO WATERFRONT PROPERTIES (PRIVATE) LIMITED (THE “PROJECT COMPANY”)
John Keells Holdings PLC (JKH) had proposed to the Government of Sri Lanka a project, valued in excess of USD 650mn, involving the developing, owning, managing, operating, selling, leasing and renting a luxury multi/mixed use Integrated Resort (the “Project”)
The two Gazettes in relation to the Project, published under the Strategic Development Projects Act on the 18th of July 2013 and  23rd of September 2013 respectively were withdrawn. The Project was re-gazetted under the same Act on the 17th of December 2013.

The Act makes available tax, duty and other concessions



Nothing about "gaming activity". As we know it is not included in the Gazette Notification.

Now , this is what Amba Reserch say, in their  CSE initiated, Earnings Review Note dated  8 November 2013 ,

Our take on the WDP
We have arrived at a project valuation of LKR25.0bn, and we forecast this project will contribute LKR24 per share to JKH’s estimated price range, based on a 9.8% risk-free rate, a 5.0% equity risk premium and a beta of 1.3 (considering the risk of the project). However, our estimates suggest that

]if JKH is unable to obtain at least 32% of the gaming net profit (PAT), it would result in the WDP generating negative NPV from the project.

As I understand,  “Prospective Investors”( whose actions mainly determine the share price ),  look at these facts , figures, research ,and  future forecasts for next 2-5 years .
( I am not sure how many of Forum members fall into that category. )

Good points to ponder..But I don't think JKH will take such a big risk regard to the project. They may have plan B,C,D...

9JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Wed Jan 29, 2014 11:55 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Gaja wrote:
@econ wrote:market giant shows positive results.. lets see other reports from market heavy weights like CTC, COMB, NEST etc..

One member said comm might produuce 11+ PAT, am expecting above 10+ will wait and see, there exposure to gold very minimal.

SAMP may have the same issue with Gold. Couldn't sustain even 180s.

10JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Thu Jan 30, 2014 9:42 am

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
If SAMP's operational profits are sustainable to cover a part of huge of gold provision while keeping incremental bottom line, share price jumps over 180 level. Until such time, it is varying between to 174-180 range..

11JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Thu Jan 30, 2014 9:53 am

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Any business is ready absorb or take up the risk element in chasing their business strategies & the planned targets. No doubt JKH that seriously consider the risk profile on upcoming project with main concern of civil unrest connected to certain business segments. Being the biggest conglomerate in the country, management is well aware of protecting the high valued business image built up over years. Perhaps possible changes in political arena or new pressures to authority levels may be seriously accounted as an additional high risk elements.

12JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Thu Jan 30, 2014 10:00 am

bullrun

bullrun
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Can they merge with a party who has gaming licence?

13JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Thu Jan 30, 2014 11:38 am

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
I think the gaming issue will be on ice till either the presidential or general election is over. It is clearly a political play. No one is talking about abolishing horse racing and the national lotteries,

14JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Thu Jan 30, 2014 12:48 pm

balapas


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Weird day as at now JKH only RS2.5mn turnover JKH.W0022 over RS9mn.

15JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Thu Jan 30, 2014 12:56 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Think there seems a short term effect on the (confirmed ) Fed decision and world markets reacting in red.

Who  know we may still end up flat today or in green. This is CSE.

But, frankly the longer the index keep above 6200 and between 6250 , the better ;- ) .

Ending up in Red today is best.



@balapas wrote:Weird day as at now JKH only RS2.5mn turnover JKH.W0022 over RS9mn.  

16JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Thu Jan 30, 2014 12:59 pm

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
Its also month end, so we might see some funny stuff till tomorrow afternoon.

17JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Thu Jan 30, 2014 1:01 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Ah yes, forgot about that.


@Backstage wrote:Its also month end, so we might see some funny stuff till tomorrow afternoon.

18JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Fri Feb 07, 2014 12:04 pm

iham77


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
i have bought a jhk warrant22 for 85, current price is 69 pale 
what i should do now? bcz im very new to stock market. much appreciate ur guys sugections

19JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Fri Feb 07, 2014 12:14 pm

balapas


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@iham77 wrote:i have bought a jhk warrant22 for 85, current price is 69 pale 
what i should do now? bcz im very new to stock market. much appreciate ur guys sugections

Dont worry too much. Warrants will react faster to market movements and sentiment more than shares. Anyways JKH W is not like Greg W you will not lose at the end. Just need some patience. No point selling now if you are in a hurry wait for few weeks or couple of months and sell at a higher price. JKH will deliver as always.

20JKH - Report Dec 31st Empty Re: JKH - Report Dec 31st Fri Feb 07, 2014 12:35 pm

iham77


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
tnx... Wink 

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