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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning

Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning

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21Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:29 pm

KDDND


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@wandi wrote:hi ,this is my first post in this forum. Hope these thoughts of other members will be informative for my decision making.

i entered to the mkt yesterday.my first buyin was sfin at 13.30 as my broker recommended.he was so confident that it will pass 20 soon. so bought 25000.
love you everyone..

Welcomem wandi!
I think ur entry is OK but close to GOOD....
But b very careful..... not in loving to broker..... but in listening to their advice.....
its is their job.... this is your part time work....
Always think twice when u invest your money.....
lucky u entered to market when it is in up trend.....
but it may not stay in up trend so long.....
so listen to many other people....
there some good and nice and intelligent people in this forum... but not all OK
hee hee I am also not in that group....  Wink 
Have a good and pleasant journey in CSE!  I love you  Embarassed 

22Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Sat Feb 01, 2014 7:19 am

Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Btw, here is hidden fact I forgot to mention about GSF.

IF GSF adjusts in price massively, ASI is going to take a hit.
So there is Political balance need to figure.

Will there be "relaxations" to accommodate GSF I don;t know.

How GSF is handled will be interesting to watch in this merger hype.

All i know is this,
somehow 1.2 Bil asset company is trading in the market for over 10 Billion!
While I see a 29 billion asset company is trading at 2.7 Billion!!!

Wonder of CSE.

Still fundamental are not showing that much at CSE ( though very much better than 2011)


.

23Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Sat Feb 01, 2014 11:08 am

K.Haputantri


Co-Admin
@slstock wrote:Btw, here is hidden fact I forgot to mention about GSF.

IF GSF adjusts in price massively,  ASI is going to take a hit.
So there  is   Political balance  need to figure.

Will there be "relaxations" to accommodate GSF I don;t know.  

How GSF is handled will be  interesting to watch  in this merger hype.

All i know is this,
somehow 1.2 Bil asset company is trading in the market for over 10 Billion!
While I see a 29 billion asset company is trading at 2.7 Billion!!!

Wonder of CSE.

Still fundamental are not showing that much at CSE ( though very much better than 2011)


.

Its strange. To keep GSF at current level some one must pour in money or undertake related party transactions again costing money for transaction costs etc? ?Where this money come from.

24Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Sat Feb 01, 2014 11:19 am

Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Looking at Assets/ Capital ( and if this CB regulation is serious with no loop holes for companies like GSF) they have no option but to merge or sell out. s

Related party share transfer will not do right?



@K.Haputantri wrote:
@slstock wrote:Btw, here is hidden fact I forgot to mention about GSF.

IF GSF adjusts in price massively,  ASI is going to take a hit.
So there  is   Political balance  need to figure.

Will there be "relaxations" to accommodate GSF I don;t know.  

How GSF is handled will be  interesting to watch  in this merger hype.

All i know is this,
somehow 1.2 Bil asset company is trading in the market for over 10 Billion!
While I see a 29 billion asset company is trading at 2.7 Billion!!!

Wonder of CSE.

Still fundamental are not showing that much at CSE ( though very much better than 2011)


.

Its strange. To keep GSF at current level some one must pour in money or undertake related party transactions again costing money for transaction costs etc? ?Where this money come from.

25Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Sat Feb 01, 2014 12:16 pm

malanp


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@K.Haputantri wrote:
@slstock wrote:Btw, here is hidden fact I forgot to mention about GSF.

IF GSF adjusts in price massively,  ASI is going to take a hit.
So there  is   Political balance  need to figure.

Will there be "relaxations" to accommodate GSF I don;t know.  

How GSF is handled will be  interesting to watch  in this merger hype.

All i know is this,
somehow 1.2 Bil asset company is trading in the market for over 10 Billion!
While I see a 29 billion asset company is trading at 2.7 Billion!!!

Wonder of CSE.

Still fundamental are not showing that much at CSE ( though very much better than 2011)


.

Its strange. To keep GSF at current level some one must pour in money or undertake related party transactions again costing money for transaction costs etc? ?Where this money come from.

GSF monthly share trading is just half million ruppees,

for 6m annual share trading brokerage is just above Rs.60,000.

very low cost to maintain at 10b market capitalization.

26Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Sat Feb 01, 2014 1:57 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
AMF also having the similar issue isn't It?

27Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Sat Feb 01, 2014 2:06 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Well AMF is trading around Rs 350. NAV is around 126 , and EPS will be over Rs 25. So it is trading rather fairly compared to some. Public holding is only about 10% though.




@Gaja wrote:AMF also having the similar issue isn't It?

28Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Sat Feb 01, 2014 2:20 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Yes, also last year final divided and this time interim one also good, need to wait and see what they intend to do in the future

29Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Sat Feb 01, 2014 3:27 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock - timely post. hype is the right word. after a long time, brokers have a "merger" story to sell and the retail traders are speculating on a favourable outcome to all this. so far so good as many of the lower rung finance companies have gone up significantly and traders have been rewarded.

The thing to keep in mind is these combinations / mergers are like arranged marriages (almost by force ?) and not love marriages. this is been done mainly to protect deposit holders of the weaker institutions. so stronger institutions will have to absorb weaker institutions, by way of share swap or cash, and based on the nett assets principal. since many of the lower tier finance companies are trading at a premium to net assets, the shareholders of these may get a rude shock when & if these mergers take place.

also note that it is possible to pay a higher price than nett assets by recognising goodwill i.e. paying a higher amount for synergy, branch network, locations, new markets etc. In COCR case, the private placement is done at nearly 3 times NAV but at a relatively low P/E (7 times).  

another possibility is that the stronger institutions paying a higher than nett assets amount via share swap / cash and are compensated by tax incentives by the central bank, for doing so.
in some instances like (TFC) for eg, with negative nett assets, goodwill maybe recognised or revaluation of real estate portfolio done and incentives offered to potential buyer.  

it is no point paying a premium on net assets on weaker finance institutions unless their earnings growth or p/e multiple warrants it. paying a premium for a weak finance company trading at a high Price to Book ratio and high P/E multiple and hoping to gain in a merger with a stronger bank / finance company (through share swap or cash mandatory offer) may be wishful thinking or pure speculation.

ironically, some of the more fundamentally undervalued companies in this sector, i.e. the perceived stronger institutions, like CFIN, ALLI, CDB, LFIN, VFIN, PLC etc have not seen much movement (CDB maybe exception to the case).  

This may also not be the best year for banks / finance companies due to declining interest rates and the fact that many locked onto fairly high borrowing rates via debentures, causing a mismatch in their borrowing / loan portfolios.

i am afraid a mini bubble in this sector is being / will be created, led by the retail speculative, broker herded crowd  and will burst when expectations are not met in reality. this could negatively impact the overall market, as we have seen before.

30Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Sun Feb 02, 2014 4:01 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
I am still not sure who is behind the foreign established fund who wants to buy COCR ;-) . There is much rumors behind COCR and management. I won't mention such details as I don't know the truth.,


Anyway , like you said, it is okay for aquirer to pay multiple times NAV, if is it a solid company making healthy cash profits, trading at good PEs. Else some of these other shares are making runs to be over valued and will be left high and dry with need set of traders who buy high in trouble.

I am still wondering what will happen to SFS ( here is another shaky one , which I hinted above) if Pawnees ( not an Indian Tribe) default!! Even scared to look at their portfolio with massive amount of Loans given on Gold , and what will happen if people default. This merger might be a god send for them.

Sadly so far Category A companies , ( except COCR) which really deserves a run, has not increased in price so far. Some of them have room to double in price fundamentally but .....


Btw, I thought CB already said there will be Tax incentives for Aqcuirer companies.

Your observation on Debentures should be noted. Specially if small companies who gave debentures at high rates in bog amounts need to be very careful.

This merger has + and -. So be educated folks.



[quote="The Alchemist"].

@The Alchemist wrote:@slstock - timely post. hype is the right word. after a long time, brokers have a "merger" story to sell and the retail traders are speculating on a favourable outcome to all this. so far so good as many of the lower rung finance companies have gone up significantly and traders have been rewarded.

The thing to keep in mind is these combinations / mergers are like arranged marriages (almost by force ?) and not love marriages. this is been done mainly to protect deposit holders of the weaker institutions. so stronger institutions will have to absorb weaker institutions, by way of share swap or cash, and based on the nett assets principal. since many of the lower tier finance companies are trading at a premium to net assets, the shareholders of these may get a rude shock when & if these mergers take place.

also note that it is possible to pay a higher price than nett assets by recognising goodwill i.e. paying a higher amount for synergy, branch network, locations, new markets etc. In COCR case, the private placement is done at nearly 3 times NAV but at a relatively low P/E (7 times).  

another possibility is that the stronger institutions paying a higher than nett assets amount via share swap / cash and are compensated by tax incentives by the central bank, for doing so.
in some instances like (TFC) for eg, with negative nett assets, goodwill maybe recognised or revaluation of real estate portfolio done and incentives offered to potential buyer.  

it is no point paying a premium on net assets on weaker finance institutions unless their earnings growth or p/e multiple warrants it. paying a premium for a weak finance company trading at a high Price to Book ratio and high P/E multiple and hoping to gain in a merger with a stronger bank / finance company (through share swap or cash mandatory offer) may be wishful thinking or pure speculation.

ironically, some of the more fundamentally undervalued companies in this sector, i.e. the perceived stronger institutions, like CFIN, ALLI, CDB, LFIN, VFIN, PLC etc have not seen much movement (CDB maybe exception to the case).  

This may also not be the best year for banks / finance companies due to declining interest rates and the fact that many locked onto fairly high borrowing rates via debentures, causing a mismatch in their borrowing / loan portfolios.

i am afraid a mini bubble in this sector is being / will be created, led by the retail speculative, broker herded crowd  and will burst when expectations are not met in reality. this could negatively impact the overall market, as we have seen before.

31Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Mon Feb 03, 2014 1:44 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
AFSL now trading at premium values to intrinsic.

32Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:16 pm

slrkman


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Very true slstock

33Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Fri Feb 07, 2014 7:28 pm

dhanurrox


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Whatever market condition this BLI thing is going up.today hit 35 too.Why I sold early, the shares I bout 17-18 rupees??100% return missed.

34Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Fri Feb 07, 2014 11:02 pm

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@dhanurrox wrote:Whatever market condition this BLI  thing is  going up.today hit 35 too.Why I sold early, the shares I bout 17-18 rupees??100% return missed.

market going down...
BIM puth going up

35Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Sun Feb 09, 2014 2:50 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Interesting read/opinion as many facts are true I think.

"He strongly urged that the decision as to which banks or finance companies should merge should not be determined by the Central Bank or any other authority but by the institution and its shareholders."

more at

http://island.lk/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=97488

36Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Sun Feb 09, 2014 5:33 pm

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Pl read the article of Eran w

It not a statement of Opposition M P. But real constructive

criticism by an independent Economist

But the problem is no one to give hearing

Civil society organization are very week

37Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Sun Feb 09, 2014 9:32 pm

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Eran point of view is wise and good for strength vise for the country!

38Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Mon Feb 10, 2014 10:32 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Hmm, illiquid BLI is Rs 40+ now while CDB.X is Rs 38.

BLI NAV about 14
CDB NAV is 60

When the times comes .. any share can have its day ;-)

39Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Tue Mar 11, 2014 1:55 pm

jonta999

jonta999
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
oVER TO YOU gILL MART,


cAN yOU produce a GEM like this?

40Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Tue Mar 11, 2014 4:01 pm

fairinvestor


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Where have all the good ones gone, long time passing?
Where have all the good ones gone, long time ago?
Where have all the good ones gone?
----- have picked them everyone.
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

41Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Fri Mar 21, 2014 3:14 pm

Aubrey Perera


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
signs of things to come I reckon , look out for the counters that are lagging behind. I wonder what the closed door disclosures are though eg. CFL ran today but we don't know what their plans are. I think if we get behind certain counters we can make some millions in the next few weeks. GL some games have also started with certain other counters eneter at the right time and exit at the right time Merry christmas everyone.

42Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Fri Mar 21, 2014 3:58 pm

mdcpk1975


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
VFIN, LFIN is yet to start the run. Could see little bit of collection last week...Compared to already moved up counters like CFL, TFIL, UBC, Etc ...better buy safe and sound shares like VFIN and LFIN

43Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning   - Page 2 Empty Re: Bank/Fin Merger hype Warning Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:08 pm

Aubrey Perera


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
I own TFIL and it might be small but it's financials are quite sound to me. They should have done well this quarter as well. Let's see.

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