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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000)

CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000)

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26CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:01 pm

traderathome


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
mmmm did not see UnivesalGoal long time....in the threads...

Nice to see you....

Basketball

27CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty CTBL - Is it okay . Thu May 09, 2013 9:40 pm

sanju351


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
CTBL - 15 Publick Holding and paid a .25 Dividend Last AUG ..NAV is around 2 and EPS is around .40 /.50
With the Tea Market showing Good Results and quantity too due to good weather conditions Is this worthwhile for this current Price ?.

28CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Thu May 09, 2013 10:24 pm

salt


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yes, moreover this is part of capital alliance
CALF moved, it could be next

29CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Thu May 09, 2013 10:27 pm

sanju351


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@salt wrote:Yes, moreover this is part of capital alliance
CALF moved, it could be next

Thank you

30CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Thu May 09, 2013 10:43 pm

UAEBOY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@sanju351 wrote:
@salt wrote:Yes, moreover this is part of capital alliance
CALF moved, it could be next

Thank you

Interesting to see coming week...Collection is under way for this...... Razz
Dividend announcement is also on the card....
Latset Qtr improved results on the way..

Yes, CTBL is a gem for me at current price level... cheers

Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil




Last edited by UAEBOY on Thu May 09, 2013 11:25 pm; edited 1 time in total

31CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Thu May 09, 2013 11:13 pm

amohamedniffraz


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
I am also waiting for the CTBL running...
Because it is 20 % of my portfolio.

But one think,

In 2012, they paid .25 dividend out of .50 earning (50%)

But this time, only .25 earning for the last 9 months. Say, .15 earning for last quarter. It will be .40 for the financial year.
So, there are chances for .20/.25 dividend this time.

It's my personal opinion, it will pass 6.50 at least before September. So, be patient until received the Annual report, Dividend news .......
or up to Miracle September....

32CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Thu May 09, 2013 11:45 pm

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I also hold bit of CTBL!
If It a GEM yesterday ......
today it was DIAMOND ....... [coz dropped by... or somebody controlling...stopping going up.... this is probably to collect lots from inpatient once]
then tomorrow.......???
lets be cool... wait for the day......!!!
hope 6-6.50 hmm... why not 6.80-7.00.


*** DO NOT CONSIDER THIS AS A PROMOTION / DEMOTION.........DO YOUR HOME WORK! coz I am not a expert in CSE! study Listen to EXPERTS....... cheers

33CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Fri May 10, 2013 12:24 am

UAEBOY

UAEBOY
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@KDDND wrote:I also hold bit of CTBL!
If It a GEM yesterday ......
today it was DIAMOND ....... [coz dropped by... or somebody controlling...stopping going up.... this is probably to collect lots from inpatient once]
then tomorrow.......???
lets be cool... wait for the day......!!!
hope 6-6.50 hmm... why not 6.80-7.00.


*** DO NOT CONSIDER THIS AS A PROMOTION / DEMOTION.........DO YOUR HOME WORK! coz I am not a expert in CSE! study Listen to EXPERTS....... cheers

They are dragging price down purposly in order to collect more..Your targets are very realistic.....

Collected at 4.90.... Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

34CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Fri May 10, 2013 12:29 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
buy @ 4.1 Very Happy if you are lucky Surprised

35CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Fri May 10, 2013 2:54 am

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Who is collecting
We here always big guns collects.. Some collection ... Etc.
but, does anybody know who is behind this share

36CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Fri May 10, 2013 11:38 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
For me collection at 3 phase..... Very Happy

already by order pending for the 1st phase. Very Happy

i am patiently waiting...

37CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Fri May 10, 2013 11:39 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
At 4.1? good luck unless a force sale.




@traderathome wrote:For me collection at 3 phase..... Very Happy

already by order pending for the 1st phase. Very Happy

i am patiently waiting...

38CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Fri May 10, 2013 12:57 pm

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@salt wrote:Who is collecting
We here always big guns collects.. Some collection ... Etc.
but, does anybody know who is behind this share

CT who else?

39CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Fri May 10, 2013 1:01 pm

Bond


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
B/V 1.57

PE 21

40CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Fri Jun 07, 2013 9:24 am

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I dropped CTBL and switched to CFVF............
Smile I am happy!

41CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Fri Jun 07, 2013 6:35 pm

funland


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@KDDND wrote:I dropped CTBL and switched to CFVF............
Smile I am happy!

May we know the reason?

42CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Fri Jun 07, 2013 6:46 pm

econ

econ
Global Moderator
We may able catch this share around 4-4.5 market goes down for few more weeks.

43CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Fri Jun 07, 2013 6:48 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Hmm, the way the selling pressure is going and after last quarter results, you may get your chance. But not sure about volume unless panic.


@slstock wrote:At 4.1? good luck unless a force sale.




@traderathome wrote:For me collection at 3 phase..... Very Happy

already by order pending for the 1st phase. Very Happy

i am patiently waiting...

44CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Fri Jun 07, 2013 10:01 pm

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@funland wrote:
@KDDND wrote:I dropped CTBL and switched to CFVF............
Smile I am happy!

May we know the reason?

I thought that CFVF would most probably shows better result early than CTBL would shows....

From performance and statement data......and experts comment ... I took the above decision....

Since I sold CTBL early.....selling by that time is a profit by now!

lets wait and see for next few months... to see overall result!
GL!

45CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sun Feb 09, 2014 4:55 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
EPS for last 3 years are as follows:

2011 March end 0.30
2012 march end 0.42
2013 march end 0.34


So far for this year they have q/q eps 0.13 + 0.19 (= 0.32) and within few days I think they will show around 0.20 - 0.25 EPS for this quarter.
Reason : Increase in net finance income due to the declining interest rates apart from the growth of their core business.
(they give loans to the suppliers and they borrow from banks)

If they continue this trend,
Y/Y 2014 March end can  be around 0.13+0.19+ say 0.22 +  say 0.20 = 0.74

Share price was 4.60-6.00 in 2012 and 2013 with EPS of .42 and 0.34

Note : This is just an idea came to my mind. I may be totally wrong.
(I have CFVF but no CTBL , both are having favorable time due to interest rate change I think. again I am not sure 100% in this)

If they post over 0.20 this time then there is a good possibility to reach my figure at the end of march 2014.



Last edited by Chinwi on Sun Feb 09, 2014 10:55 pm; edited 1 time in total

46CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sun Feb 09, 2014 5:49 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Good analysis.

I have been watching this  (  not in my portfolio) but last time I checked their NAV was a concern for a longer term  investment. It can change if earning are good.

Good to watch for medium term traders/investors.

TAH will be happy about this post.



Last edited by slstock on Sun Feb 09, 2014 7:44 pm; edited 1 time in total

47CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sun Feb 09, 2014 7:31 pm

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Expert
Expert
I have CTBL. I believe CTBL should have improved performance for this qtr.

Read below article which shows that tea production /Demand & Price improved after August ending the Year on high note. HOPL results proved it,so the tea brokers including CTBL.

Even I may be wrong, But I included it in my PF

http://www.ft.lk/2014/01/02/sri-lanka-tea-review-2013-and-outlook-for-2014/
Sri Lanka Tea Production during the year 2013 could have well reached an all time high of 335 Mnkg(Record production)....Sri Lanka had an extraordinary year, with prices for Ceylon Tea moving on their own and seemingly out-of-sync with the rest of the world.........From August demand increased steadily as channels of supply to key markets improved. The market that was looking for direction during Q2 improved rapidly from early Q3 and remained strong all the way through to the end of 2013....

48CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sun Feb 09, 2014 9:53 pm

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Good analysis.

I have been watching this  (  not in my portfolio) but last time I checked their NAV was a concern for a longer term  investment. It can change if earning are good.

Good to watch for medium term traders/investors.

TAH will be happy about this post.

Yes Of course the NAV value is threatening... But Unfortunately I am one of the highest qty holder for quiet sometimes.. One of my prediction of uptrend during last October went wrong and it increased my holding period. Dividend date is not near by but Chinwi prediction in the only reason for my holding. This is one of the highest holding shares in my portfolio apart from Abans..

49CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sun Feb 09, 2014 11:08 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
ASIY & CTBL yet to make a move, hoping some volatility in the next RUN

50CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sun Feb 09, 2014 11:14 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@traderathome wrote:ASIY & CTBL yet to make a move, hoping some volatility in the next RUN

@TAH, I thought ASIY will need a high dividend to make the next move. It has taken a lot of time now..

51CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sun Feb 09, 2014 11:37 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Well not necessarily, however though it can push high on the break-out I am expecting in few weeks... the price channel of ASIY trading is becoming very narrow 3.1-3.2 ....
The more time it takes on for consolidation, the jump would be 1.2-1.5 for ASIY techinally before resting for the next phase.
with possible favorable results for the 3rd quarter about to be released..it could have a run prior dividends announcements.
An announcement would not hurt the impending move these 2 could make basically on the speculation.
A better way would be to have an interim dividend and then go for a final dividend.
As I said if the dividend for 2014 can be matched to last year... then we are talking about a GEM in the making in the years ahead....... Smile

52CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sun Feb 09, 2014 11:41 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
sorry guys I am talking about ASIY in the wrong thread ....I like to compare ASIY to CTBL and there is a price mismatch which IMO should get corrected if ASIY can surpass on dividend pay-out, this year.
Its just my GUT feeling, nothing else.  Rolling Eyes 

53CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Mon Feb 10, 2014 10:05 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
We saw CTBL going to 4.5 on low volume buying last week then coming back to CMP....
It seems there are clear indication what some want in the run up to the upcoming financial announcements for the period 31.12.13
IMO both counter such as CTBL should try and make an interim dividend before Awurudu....to keep the investors happy....and balance in Aug/Sep. Smile

Good Luck
TAH

54CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Mon Feb 10, 2014 12:57 pm

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
This is just a copy paste of some comments that I did in the below thread few months ago.

@seek wrote:In general, tea based plantation companies and tea brokering firms should do well in coming months since Sri Lankan firms are now getting a good price from the buyers.  

• Tea export earnings in the first eight months of the year increased by Rs. 10.6 billion year on year (YoY) to Rs. 123.1 billion
• Sri Lanka’s tea export earnings in August increased by Rs. 6.2 billion to Rs. 18.8 billion YoY.
• Tea export volumes increased appreciably by 9.5 million kg. YoY to 31.4 million kg.
• The average tea price in the first eight months of the year increased by Rs. 47.10 to Rs. 599.45 per kg.
• All elevations showed a YoY growth, with Low Growns showing the biggest gain.

Source :- http://www.thesundayleader.lk/2013/10/06/tea-exports-hit-rs-123-bn/

Regarding CTBL,
1. It is in a clear path in terms of revenue growth and market share according to the quantity sold. The market share has grown from 2.5% to 9% over last 7-8 years and revenue has grown to 203 Mn from 116 Mn which is almost 75% during last four years.
2. CTBL has done well in Low Grown segment which is more profitable and currently hold 14% of the market share.
3. Price of a kilo of low grown teas has continuously hit over 490 Rs during last for weeks and on 25-Sep it has hit record figure of 506 Rs.

@seek wrote:CTBL last 6 months figures
Profit from operations 13 M (16% improvements from first 6 months of 2012)
Finance income 35 M (70% improvements from first 6 months of 2012)
Profit before taxation 48 M (51% improvements from first 6 months of 2012)
Operational profit is only 27% from total profit.

Under current assets
Loans to tea suppliers 91 M(700% improvements from first 6 months of 2012)

It seems that with the backing of CT holdings, CTBL is acting like a small finance company to small scale tea producers.

CTBL is in a position to report at least 70 cents by the year end 2013/14 and declare dividend of 35 or 40 cents by mid next year.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t31141-is-ctbl-a-good-buy-at-the-moment

55CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Mon Feb 10, 2014 1:15 pm

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Hawk Eye wrote:I have CTBL.  I believe CTBL should have improved performance for this qtr.

Read below article which shows that tea production /Demand & Price improved after August ending the Year on high note. HOPL results proved it,so the tea brokers including CTBL.

Even I may be wrong, But I included it in my PF

http://www.ft.lk/2014/01/02/sri-lanka-tea-review-2013-and-outlook-for-2014/
Sri Lanka Tea Production during the year 2013 could have well reached an all time high of 335 Mnkg(Record production)....Sri Lanka had an extraordinary year, with prices for Ceylon Tea moving on their own and seemingly out-of-sync with the rest of the world.........From August demand increased steadily as channels of supply to key markets improved. The market that was looking for direction during Q2 improved rapidly from early Q3 and remained strong all the way through to the end of 2013....

For me, most encouraging para regarding CTBL in the said article is this.

Outlook 2014
The market for Ceylon Orthodox Leafy Black teas particularly from the Low Grown segment that closed 2013 on a high note will see demand sustained through Q1 2014. Seasonal dry weather during this period could keep Low Grown supply tight. Post the Iran New Year in March and an easing of some consumption during the warmer summer months, there could be a price dip during Q2, but levels would yet be higher than last year due to stronger underlying demand factors and perhaps irregular supply.

CTBL has 14% market share in low-grown segment.

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