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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000)

CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000)

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41CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Fri Jun 07, 2013 6:35 pm

funland


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@KDDND wrote:I dropped CTBL and switched to CFVF............
Smile I am happy!

May we know the reason?

42CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Fri Jun 07, 2013 6:46 pm

econ


Global Moderator
We may able catch this share around 4-4.5 market goes down for few more weeks.

43CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Fri Jun 07, 2013 6:48 pm

Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Hmm, the way the selling pressure is going and after last quarter results, you may get your chance. But not sure about volume unless panic.


@slstock wrote:At 4.1? good luck unless a force sale.




@traderathome wrote:For me collection at 3 phase..... Very Happy

already by order pending for the 1st phase. Very Happy

i am patiently waiting...

44CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Fri Jun 07, 2013 10:01 pm

KDDND


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@funland wrote:
@KDDND wrote:I dropped CTBL and switched to CFVF............
Smile I am happy!

May we know the reason?

I thought that CFVF would most probably shows better result early than CTBL would shows....

From performance and statement data......and experts comment ... I took the above decision....

Since I sold CTBL early.....selling by that time is a profit by now!

lets wait and see for next few months... to see overall result!
GL!

45CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sun Feb 09, 2014 4:55 pm

Chinwi


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
EPS for last 3 years are as follows:

2011 March end 0.30
2012 march end 0.42
2013 march end 0.34


So far for this year they have q/q eps 0.13 + 0.19 (= 0.32) and within few days I think they will show around 0.20 - 0.25 EPS for this quarter.
Reason : Increase in net finance income due to the declining interest rates apart from the growth of their core business.
(they give loans to the suppliers and they borrow from banks)

If they continue this trend,
Y/Y 2014 March end can  be around 0.13+0.19+ say 0.22 +  say 0.20 = 0.74

Share price was 4.60-6.00 in 2012 and 2013 with EPS of .42 and 0.34

Note : This is just an idea came to my mind. I may be totally wrong.
(I have CFVF but no CTBL , both are having favorable time due to interest rate change I think. again I am not sure 100% in this)

If they post over 0.20 this time then there is a good possibility to reach my figure at the end of march 2014.



Last edited by Chinwi on Sun Feb 09, 2014 10:55 pm; edited 1 time in total

46CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sun Feb 09, 2014 5:49 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Good analysis.

I have been watching this  (  not in my portfolio) but last time I checked their NAV was a concern for a longer term  investment. It can change if earning are good.

Good to watch for medium term traders/investors.

TAH will be happy about this post.



Last edited by slstock on Sun Feb 09, 2014 7:44 pm; edited 1 time in total

47CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sun Feb 09, 2014 7:31 pm

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I have CTBL. I believe CTBL should have improved performance for this qtr.

Read below article which shows that tea production /Demand & Price improved after August ending the Year on high note. HOPL results proved it,so the tea brokers including CTBL.

Even I may be wrong, But I included it in my PF

http://www.ft.lk/2014/01/02/sri-lanka-tea-review-2013-and-outlook-for-2014/
Sri Lanka Tea Production during the year 2013 could have well reached an all time high of 335 Mnkg(Record production)....Sri Lanka had an extraordinary year, with prices for Ceylon Tea moving on their own and seemingly out-of-sync with the rest of the world.........From August demand increased steadily as channels of supply to key markets improved. The market that was looking for direction during Q2 improved rapidly from early Q3 and remained strong all the way through to the end of 2013....

48CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sun Feb 09, 2014 9:53 pm

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Good analysis.

I have been watching this  (  not in my portfolio) but last time I checked their NAV was a concern for a longer term  investment. It can change if earning are good.

Good to watch for medium term traders/investors.

TAH will be happy about this post.

Yes Of course the NAV value is threatening... But Unfortunately I am one of the highest qty holder for quiet sometimes.. One of my prediction of uptrend during last October went wrong and it increased my holding period. Dividend date is not near by but Chinwi prediction in the only reason for my holding. This is one of the highest holding shares in my portfolio apart from Abans..

49CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sun Feb 09, 2014 11:08 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
ASIY & CTBL yet to make a move, hoping some volatility in the next RUN

50CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sun Feb 09, 2014 11:14 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@traderathome wrote:ASIY & CTBL yet to make a move, hoping some volatility in the next RUN

@TAH, I thought ASIY will need a high dividend to make the next move. It has taken a lot of time now..

51CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sun Feb 09, 2014 11:37 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Well not necessarily, however though it can push high on the break-out I am expecting in few weeks... the price channel of ASIY trading is becoming very narrow 3.1-3.2 ....
The more time it takes on for consolidation, the jump would be 1.2-1.5 for ASIY techinally before resting for the next phase.
with possible favorable results for the 3rd quarter about to be released..it could have a run prior dividends announcements.
An announcement would not hurt the impending move these 2 could make basically on the speculation.
A better way would be to have an interim dividend and then go for a final dividend.
As I said if the dividend for 2014 can be matched to last year... then we are talking about a GEM in the making in the years ahead....... Smile

52CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sun Feb 09, 2014 11:41 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
sorry guys I am talking about ASIY in the wrong thread ....I like to compare ASIY to CTBL and there is a price mismatch which IMO should get corrected if ASIY can surpass on dividend pay-out, this year.
Its just my GUT feeling, nothing else.  Rolling Eyes 

53CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Mon Feb 10, 2014 10:05 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
We saw CTBL going to 4.5 on low volume buying last week then coming back to CMP....
It seems there are clear indication what some want in the run up to the upcoming financial announcements for the period 31.12.13
IMO both counter such as CTBL should try and make an interim dividend before Awurudu....to keep the investors happy....and balance in Aug/Sep. Smile

Good Luck
TAH

54CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Mon Feb 10, 2014 12:57 pm

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
This is just a copy paste of some comments that I did in the below thread few months ago.

@seek wrote:In general, tea based plantation companies and tea brokering firms should do well in coming months since Sri Lankan firms are now getting a good price from the buyers.  

• Tea export earnings in the first eight months of the year increased by Rs. 10.6 billion year on year (YoY) to Rs. 123.1 billion
• Sri Lanka’s tea export earnings in August increased by Rs. 6.2 billion to Rs. 18.8 billion YoY.
• Tea export volumes increased appreciably by 9.5 million kg. YoY to 31.4 million kg.
• The average tea price in the first eight months of the year increased by Rs. 47.10 to Rs. 599.45 per kg.
• All elevations showed a YoY growth, with Low Growns showing the biggest gain.

Source :- http://www.thesundayleader.lk/2013/10/06/tea-exports-hit-rs-123-bn/

Regarding CTBL,
1. It is in a clear path in terms of revenue growth and market share according to the quantity sold. The market share has grown from 2.5% to 9% over last 7-8 years and revenue has grown to 203 Mn from 116 Mn which is almost 75% during last four years.
2. CTBL has done well in Low Grown segment which is more profitable and currently hold 14% of the market share.
3. Price of a kilo of low grown teas has continuously hit over 490 Rs during last for weeks and on 25-Sep it has hit record figure of 506 Rs.

@seek wrote:CTBL last 6 months figures
Profit from operations 13 M (16% improvements from first 6 months of 2012)
Finance income 35 M (70% improvements from first 6 months of 2012)
Profit before taxation 48 M (51% improvements from first 6 months of 2012)
Operational profit is only 27% from total profit.

Under current assets
Loans to tea suppliers 91 M(700% improvements from first 6 months of 2012)

It seems that with the backing of CT holdings, CTBL is acting like a small finance company to small scale tea producers.

CTBL is in a position to report at least 70 cents by the year end 2013/14 and declare dividend of 35 or 40 cents by mid next year.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t31141-is-ctbl-a-good-buy-at-the-moment

55CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Mon Feb 10, 2014 1:15 pm

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Hawk Eye wrote:I have CTBL.  I believe CTBL should have improved performance for this qtr.

Read below article which shows that tea production /Demand & Price improved after August ending the Year on high note. HOPL results proved it,so the tea brokers including CTBL.

Even I may be wrong, But I included it in my PF

http://www.ft.lk/2014/01/02/sri-lanka-tea-review-2013-and-outlook-for-2014/
Sri Lanka Tea Production during the year 2013 could have well reached an all time high of 335 Mnkg(Record production)....Sri Lanka had an extraordinary year, with prices for Ceylon Tea moving on their own and seemingly out-of-sync with the rest of the world.........From August demand increased steadily as channels of supply to key markets improved. The market that was looking for direction during Q2 improved rapidly from early Q3 and remained strong all the way through to the end of 2013....

For me, most encouraging para regarding CTBL in the said article is this.

Outlook 2014
The market for Ceylon Orthodox Leafy Black teas particularly from the Low Grown segment that closed 2013 on a high note will see demand sustained through Q1 2014. Seasonal dry weather during this period could keep Low Grown supply tight. Post the Iran New Year in March and an easing of some consumption during the warmer summer months, there could be a price dip during Q2, but levels would yet be higher than last year due to stronger underlying demand factors and perhaps irregular supply.

CTBL has 14% market share in low-grown segment.

56CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:21 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:I have been watching this  (  not in my portfolio) but last time I checked their NAV was a concern for a longer term  investment. It can change if earning are good.


Sorry I forgot to mention about the low NAV.

Th main concern is,  Trade and Other Receivables comprises 75% of their total assets which is very unusual and alarming for any other company.

This may be due to their business model ; the figure is continuing . Can anybody enlighten us about this ?

57CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Tue Feb 11, 2014 7:47 am

econ

econ
Global Moderator
There are lot of trading opportunities of this counter if you buy near 4 Rs. I have done several trading on this counter owing to its illiquid nature. When this counter run it can easily go up by 50 cents in no time.

58CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Tue Feb 11, 2014 7:53 am

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I think it is better waiting a bit before jumping into this kind of share. CALF,TWOD,REEF 19 have come down. All those shares good for trading if catch up @ right price.

59CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:59 am

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:
@slstock wrote:I have been watching this  (  not in my portfolio) but last time I checked their NAV was a concern for a longer term  investment. It can change if earning are good.


Sorry I forgot to mention about the low NAV.

Th main concern is,  Trade and Other Receivables comprises 75% of their total assets  which is very unusual and alarming for any other company.

This may be due to their business model ; the figure is continuing . Can anybody enlighten us about this ?

According to the last AR of CTBL, trade and other receivables is 816 M from which 243 M represents trade receivables and 540 M represents advances to tea suppliers. Both of them represent nearly 96% of trade and other receivables. 816M of trade and other receivables is 86 % of total assets (1038 M)

In ASIY case, 662 M of Loans and Advances and 424 M trade debtors represents 70% of total assets. If you take NAV, ASIY is in a better position than CTBL.

I think according to the business model these brokers give considerable amount of advances to their clients (in many cases they are small scale producers) and make finance income out of that.

In terms of finance income, it seems that CTBL has earned more than what ASIY has earned.

60CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Tue Feb 11, 2014 11:24 am

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
Thanks all, very interesting.

61CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:03 pm

jonta999

jonta999
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
This Q EPS - 0.118

But NAV has increased

62CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty CTBL - Good To Buy Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:41 pm

equityhunter

equityhunter
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Ctbl10

63CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:50 pm

bushra03


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
I guess so time to collect at these levels 5.20/5.50
Soon gonna Rock .

64CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:52 pm

bushra03


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
http://www.island.lk/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=174423

65CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) - Page 3 Empty Re: CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC (CTBL.N0000) Sat Nov 11, 2017 10:11 am

The Hunter

The Hunter
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Their recent qtr report shows good development with compared to their values in the last year same qtr.Hope we can see a big run with in next 2-3 weeks  Smile Smile Smile

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