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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics

All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics

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Jeremy


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Light of Hope wrote:This cant happen again. Out of all the posts I read ths looks suspicious to me. Why at a time all the developments are going well, sentiments are fine a company say this ASPI comes to 6618 in another 5-6 years?

This brings panic to the forum if you give a deep thought.

Agree it brings panic. Hope and pray that market would take off soon! but what if, these predictions become true? Just like the Tsunami warning signal that was ignored by the authorities.

Looking back at the market, I regret for not exiting the market when index was around 7800. After that,  I look at everything with an open mind. And I ask myself the question, What If? and work out a contingency plan in the event for further decline in the stock market. I believe it is better to face or ready for the reality, instead of living or believing a dream. Only time will us whether it is a dream or a reality.

This is why it is important to give equal prominence to both negative and positive information and articles in this forum.

Light of Hope


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Mr. GM, its all about market circles. If you dont know get a chart and draw see your self. In 2016, market can come down. I'm not notradamus, neither do you or warren buffe. But dont you agree this reseach company could've given a more analytical view than just sayng it has no growth in 6 years?

Now, after seeing your message the first thing that come to mind was "why i still n the market" so if all thought about the same as me, the market will drag down instantly at least 2-3%.

so its still not market manipulation to you but ppl who educated the forum membership and posted news from various sources are the market manipulators right?

I do not want to take a side of anyone. I want to analyse the plaintiff you brought against the so called trusted characters (by many) are true. and Sorry if I hurt the sentiments but if all thos who accused are market manipulators so do you in a big way.

I do not see any sense in you logic Mr.GM. Now dont get upset and delete my comments. I want to hear your side as well to accuse others.

Jeremy


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:GMnet, what was the reason to post this ?





Change the way We Think!

serene


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
What a Change!!!

Light of Hope


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
GMNet wrote:
@slstock wrote:GMnet, what was the reason to post this ?





Change the way We Think!

U mean how to manipulate the market using a forum like this?

This post would've never saw the light of the day or atleast you could have asked whether this is valid, this is a copy-paste but you could have the courtesy to ask members whether this can happen? Then nobody would have panicked and ask questions from you.

Then again what I see is that you always liked to stay away from commenting cuz you cannot give an answer.

There is a saying, "a fool is a wise man till he opens his mouth"

Jeremy

Jeremy
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
If someone can publish the ASI movement from 1988 to 2008.(20 Years). Then you can compare it with this so called controversial forecast by Trade Economics?
Let compare situation with real historical data. (Although I personally don't believe that historical data is a refection of future trend)

Light of Hope


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
GMNet wrote:If someone can publish the ASI movement from 1988 to 2008.(20 Years). Then you can compare it with this so called controversial forecast by Trade Economics?
Let compare situation with real historical data. (Although I personally don't believe that historical data is a refection of future trend)

That's a valuable suggestion. I'm 100% agree on this. I think broker huts have that kinda information.

Any luck searching such?

Jeremy

Jeremy
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Light of Hope wrote:
GMNet wrote:If someone can publish the ASI movement from 1988 to 2008.(20 Years). Then you can compare it with this so called controversial forecast by Trade Economics?
Let compare situation with real historical data. (Although I personally don't believe that historical data is a refection of future trend)

That's a valuable suggestion. I'm 100% agree on this. I think broker huts have that kinda information.

Any luck searching such?

I tried.. but I could get it only from 2003. I really like to see the bubble we had it in late 80's and early 90' and compare it with crash we had in late 90's (When lot of stock brokers lost there job) and subsequently crash just before we ended the war. This will show the real story.

Thank you for agreeing with me for the first time!!

Light of Hope


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Mr.GM, as I told you, I dont support anyone. my objective is to see things in the fair and correct way without just bringing up false information and mis-guiding forum members and trying to raise hate on previous administration. to me, they've done nothing wrong and never did promotions. same goes for the other members in the manipulator list.

But I was trying to understand why you didnt call "the professional" a manipulator when it was all clear that mislead the forum and tried to manipulate BLUE. It was just easy than even looking at others posts to find faults. But u never didnt want to do it. LOL

All this time you've done that and I could'n agree with you for that but if you just try to do somethgin good that benefits the members, why shouldn't I agree.

serene


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Light of Hope wrote:Mr.GM, as I told you, I dont support anyone. my objective is to see things in the fair and correct way without just bringing up false information and mis-guiding forum members and trying to raise hate on previous administration. to me, they've done nothing wrong and never did promotions. same goes for the other members in the manipulator list.

But I was trying to understand why you didnt call "the professional" a manipulator when it was all clear that mislead the forum and tried to manipulate BLUE. It was just easy than even looking at others posts to find faults. But u never didnt want to do it. LOL

All this time you've done that and I could'n agree with you for that but if you just try to do somethgin good that benefits the members, why shouldn't I agree.

I hope that " Light of Hope " will be able to keep our hopes intact. Thanks mate for your effort.

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert
Thank you for posting this. I want be careful and should be more discipline.
Now I think we should plan for mid and long term. because how de we know bull start next month, next quarter, second half of this year. 2015, 2016. 2017. 2018,. 2019 or 2020. I got a good idea. during next five years at least if I get three or more years of dividend I can earn get half of my stock cost, any bull trend make me more rich.

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
GMNet wrote:If someone can publish the ASI movement from 1988 to 2008.(20 Years). Then you can compare it with this so called controversial forecast by Trade Economics?
Let compare situation with real historical data. (Although I personally don't believe that historical data is a refection of future trend)

1985 - 2003
http://sharemarket-srilanka.deleted.co.uk/2013/07/cse-historical-bull-and-bear-markets.html

Jeremy

Jeremy
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Forecast by Trading Economics
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/forecast
All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics - Page 3 Screen31


CSE: Historical Bull and Bear Markets 1985 -2003
All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics - Page 3 Screen30

Above chart indicate how ASI moved during the 18 Year Period.
Look at the 10 Year period between 1991 to 2001. ASI has lost approximately 400 points!!. This might provide some form of trend analysis to determine what would be the ASI in 2020. This might prove that Trade Economics ASI Forecast may be correct!!

Chart courtesy of Redbulls.



Last edited by GMNet on Fri Feb 28, 2014 2:56 pm; edited 1 time in total

Jiggysaurus

Jiggysaurus
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
GMNet wrote:
Look at the 10 Year period between 1991 to 2002. Hardly any gains!!
This might provide some form of trend analysis to determine what would be the ASI in 2020. This might prove that Trade Economics ASI Forecast may be correct!!

Graph thanks to Redbulls.

In Sri-lanka 1991-2002 is known as the decade of the hung over president and the terrorist war. With those two things no one needed to invest in the CSE because you could get 24% return from Suntel debentures.

But good work GMNet, bring some negativity. Market is too positive the last two days. We need some posts about ASI 4,800

Jeremy

Jeremy
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
What do you think of the period between 2015 to 2030.
What can happen to Sri Lanka?

*Sanctions or embargo from USA and Europe
*Invasion of Northern seas by Tamil Nadu/India
*Economic Invasion by China.
*Subrime of the Property market in Sri Lanka.
*Shortage of self generated Power in Sri Lanka.
*Tsunami, Earquakes other natural disasters
*3rd World War and Sri Lanka or Hambanthotha become another pearl harbor.
*War Crime charges against the country.

Then ASI can easily be 4800!!



Last edited by GMNet on Fri Feb 28, 2014 3:10 pm; edited 1 time in total

Jiggysaurus

Jiggysaurus
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
GMNet wrote:What do you think the period between 2015 to 2030.
What can happen to Sri Lanka?
Sanction or embargo from USA and Europe
Invasion of Northern seas by Tamil Nadu
Economic Invasion by China.
Subrime of the Property market in Sri Lanka.
Severe shortage of Power Generation in Sri Lanka.
Tsunami or Earquakes.
3rd World War and Sri Lanka or Hambanthotha become another pearl harbor.

Good news. We can have ASI 1,000. But people will fault you for posting a positive news about ASI 6,618. Can't you get a trend forecast showing ASI 1,000 in 2030 (Earquakes maybe a big problem for Sri-Lanka at that time)

serene


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Jiggysaurus wrote:
GMNet wrote:What do you think the period between 2015 to 2030.
What can happen to Sri Lanka?
Sanction or embargo from USA and Europe
Invasion of Northern seas by Tamil Nadu
Economic Invasion by China.
Subrime of the Property market in Sri Lanka.
Severe shortage of Power Generation in Sri Lanka.
Tsunami or Earquakes.
3rd World War and Sri Lanka or Hambanthotha become another pearl harbor.

Good news. We can have ASI 1,000. But people will fault you for posting a positive news about ASI 6,618. Can't you get a trend forecast showing ASI 1,000 in 2030 (Earquakes maybe a big problem for Sri-Lanka at that time)


Better Go abroad..

serene


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Jiggysaurus wrote:
GMNet wrote:What do you think the period between 2015 to 2030.
What can happen to Sri Lanka?
Sanction or embargo from USA and Europe
Invasion of Northern seas by Tamil Nadu
Economic Invasion by China.
Subrime of the Property market in Sri Lanka.
Severe shortage of Power Generation in Sri Lanka.
Tsunami or Earquakes.
3rd World War and Sri Lanka or Hambanthotha become another pearl harbor.

Good news. We can have ASI 1,000. But people will fault you for posting a positive news about ASI 6,618. Can't you get a trend forecast showing ASI 1,000 in 2030 (Earquakes maybe a big problem for Sri-Lanka at that time)


Better Go abroad..

Jeremy

Jeremy
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Forecast by Trading Economics
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/forecast
All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics - Page 3 Screen31


CSE: Historical Bull and Bear Markets 1985 -2003
All Share Index (ASI) future forecast by Trading Economics - Page 3 Screen30

Above chart indicate how ASI moved during the 18 Year Period.
Look at the 10 Year period between 1991 to 2001. ASI has lost approximately 400 points!!. This might provide some form of trend analysis to determine what would be the ASI in 2020. This might prove that Trade Economics ASI Forecast may be correct!!

What can happen in Sri Lanka during the period between 2015 to 2030.

*Sanctions or embargo from USA and Europe
*Invasion of Northern seas by Tamil Nadu/India
*Economic Invasion by China.
*Subrime of the Property market in Sri Lanka.
*Shortage of self generated Power in Sri Lanka.
*Tsunami, Earquakes other natural disasters
*3rd World War and Sri Lanka or Hambanthotha become another pearl harbor.
*War Crime charges against the country.

Then ASI can easily be 4800!!

Jiggysaurus

Jiggysaurus
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Keep up the good work GMNet. You are nicely balancing the forum.

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
GMnet has given extreme case scenario

Following also possible

No sanction from USA under friendly govt which understand our strength and weakness. No human rights problems also

Tamil nadu will not invade SL because of US support to sri lanka

China invention not possible when America and India support SL

Act of god common to any country

China usually do not like to create unnecessary problems by invading other countries

Third world war not possible under present balance of power
If happen that will be end of Human civilization  in this world
not only SL stock market



Last edited by D.G.Dayaratne on Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:24 pm; edited 3 times in total (Reason for editing : correction)

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
This govt has over estimated our strength and under estimated our weakness because of war victory

GMnet may be correct under present scenario under practical mahinda chithanaya

Stated mahinda Chithanaya what we support is different form
present one in pratice

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@D.G.Dayaratne wrote:This govt has over estimated our strength and under estimated our weakness because of war victory

GMnet may be correct under present scenario under practical mahinda chithanaya

Stated mahinda Chithanaya what we support is different form
present one in pratice

I agree with Mr D.G.Dayaratne

Sstar

Sstar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@VALUEPICK wrote:Thank you for posting this. I want be careful and should be more discipline.
Now I think we should plan for mid and long term. because how de we know bull start next month, next quarter, second half of this year. 2015, 2016. 2017. 2018,. 2019 or 2020. I got a good idea. during next five years at least if I get three or more years of dividend I can earn get half of my stock cost, any bull trend make me more rich.

Very interesting answer!

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert
We can buy great value business in any type of market. Value investment creates wealth in the long run. Value investors can forget market direction, volatility, charts, boxes, patterns and other waves. They are long term winners. How can we measure success of companies within one quarter or less than two years? At least we should give five to six years time period to the mangers that run their business to analyse their performance. It is not easy to run business as others thinks. There are risks. I believe even now it is better to concentrate on value stocks. Market prediction is not a good thing. Value Companies link to mega trends in Sri-Lanka is ideal place to park money.

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