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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months

ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months

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1ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Fri Jun 13, 2014 4:52 pm

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
It's been long time since I last appeared in the Forum. I think it is more than 2 year ago. As you'll know I had to take a break with my family. Finally I am back for good. But I hope I still have the wisdom and the ability to predict things the way I did before.

I personally believe it is a good time to invest money in the stock market. My decision is based on following factors:

a) Falling interest rates to boost the stock market and domestic investments in Sri Lanka.
b) Steady USD Exchange Rates to smoothen the flow of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and ease BOP deficit.
c) Strong Political stability to help establish long term policies of the Government.
d) Consolidation of Banks to provide financial strength and support to all industries.
e) War Crimes allegations to slow down due to change of political leadership in India and UN.
f) Improved corporate earnings due to increase productivity and low interest rates on borrowing.
g) Sri Lanka to become the Financial and logistical hub of South East Asia.

All above factors and many unstated reasons makes me believe that we will have a robust economy and bullish stock market in 2014/15. My prediction is that ASI will reach 9,000 within next 24 months.



Last edited by Quibit on Fri Jun 13, 2014 5:03 pm; edited 1 time in total

2ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Fri Jun 13, 2014 5:03 pm

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert
welcome quibit, we have heard all the good things and there are so many members still active .... and i am sure this place wont be a strange place for you....

3ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Fri Jun 13, 2014 5:05 pm

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
SHARK wrote:welcome quibit, we have heard all the good things and there are so many members still active .... and i am sure this place wont be a strange place for you....

Thanks Shark.

4ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Fri Jun 13, 2014 5:06 pm

Sstar

Sstar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Welcome back Quibit. Good to have you here. Today is the Friday the 13th. I am speechless.

5ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Fri Jun 13, 2014 5:13 pm

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert
So nice of you to visit us here and make your self home and look forward to see some contribution....

We have lost some members due to personnel reasons and some have filled up the ranks.....in short period of time.....

And new and old are joining hands for the betterment of the forum.....

This has been your home and need no introduction.....

Good luck and welcome aboard again

6ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Fri Jun 13, 2014 5:18 pm

Harry82

Harry82
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
After 2 years GREG price Rs 2.00???

7ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Fri Jun 13, 2014 7:26 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Outcome of item d) above cannot be predicted right now as positive or negative. Its success depends on business attitude required for necessary changes & the support from commercial institutions.

item e) becomes a tidal wave at intervals that cannot be refrained from noticing or recognising. Effective policy implementation may keep the deep sea in calm.

8ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Fri Jun 13, 2014 11:12 pm

dhanurrox


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Fairy-tail.(family story).Sure you were hanging around.Anyway first lets be satisfied with 7000.

9ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Sat Jun 14, 2014 5:16 am

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert
Irrespective of type of market it is time to identify some companies which are going to have great businesses in the coming years. Anything goes down will go up. Anything goes up without any valid reasons will go down.

10ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Sat Jun 14, 2014 10:09 am

Sstar

Sstar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Quibit:
Article posted by you in Feb 2012 is below.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t15792-why-am-i-so-pessimistic-about-sri-lanka-s-equity-market

11ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Sat Jun 14, 2014 11:16 am

cse1981

cse1981
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
if this 20 will go higher level
market will boost

1 JKH
2 CTC
3 COMB
4 NESt
5 SLTL
6 DIAL
7 CARS
8 BUKI
9 DIST
10 HNB
11 DFCC
12 SPEN
13 LOLC
14 LION
15 LLUB
16 NDB
17 SAMP
18 AHPL
19 CINS
20 AHUN


12ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Sat Jun 14, 2014 11:30 am

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert
I think the Boost will be somewhat mix, some counters in the INDEX will loose its ground especially CTC on fundamental valuations. JKH too will be only able to be BULLISH over 240Rs otherwise if it is unable to pass most retailers and investors will start selling in small to create a BEARISH picture until at least 200-210 min.

HNB SPEN LLUB will see modest gains and its better to take and lock in profits with small stop losses

13ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Sat Jun 14, 2014 11:56 am

marusira


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
SHARK wrote:I think the Boost will be somewhat mix, some counters in the INDEX will loose its ground especially CTC on fundamental valuations. JKH too will be only able to be BULLISH over 240Rs otherwise if it is unable to pass most retailers and investors will start selling in small to create a BEARISH picture until at least 200-210 min.

HNB SPEN LLUB will see modest gains and its better to take and lock in profits with small stop losses
retailers cant controll JKH trend and uptrend mkt it will not comingdown to mor than 230s.
If ASI pass 6500 Jkh wii @ 260s....

14ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Sat Jun 14, 2014 12:25 pm

NZ BOY

NZ BOY
Moderator
Moderator
@Quibit wrote:It's been long time since I last appeared in the Forum. I think it is more than 2 year ago. As you'll know I had to take a break with my family. Finally I am back for good. But I hope I still have the wisdom and the ability to predict things the way I did before.

I personally believe it is a good time to invest money in the stock market. My decision is based on following factors:

a) Falling interest rates to boost the stock market and domestic investments in Sri Lanka.
b) Steady USD Exchange Rates to smoothen the flow of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and ease BOP deficit.
c) Strong Political stability to help establish long term policies of the Government.
d) Consolidation of Banks to provide financial strength and support to all industries.
e) War Crimes allegations to slow down due to change of political leadership in India and UN.
f) Improved corporate earnings due to increase productivity and low interest rates on borrowing.
g) Sri Lanka to become the Financial and logistical hub of South East Asia.

All above factors and many unstated reasons makes me believe that we will have a robust economy and bullish stock market in 2014/15. My prediction is that ASI will reach 9,000 within next 24 months.

well come quibit  I love you 

15ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Sun Jun 15, 2014 9:45 am

Sstar

Sstar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:It's been long time since I last appeared in the Forum. I think it is more than 2 year ago. As you'll know I had to take a break with my family. Finally I am back for good. But I hope I still have the wisdom and the ability to predict things the way I did before.

I personally believe it is a good time to invest money in the stock market. My decision is based on following factors:

a) Falling interest rates to boost the stock market and domestic investments in Sri Lanka.
b) Steady USD Exchange Rates to smoothen the flow of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and ease BOP deficit.
c) Strong Political stability to help establish long term policies of the Government.
d) Consolidation of Banks to provide financial strength and support to all industries.
e) War Crimes allegations to slow down due to change of political leadership in India and UN.
f) Improved corporate earnings due to increase productivity and low interest rates on borrowing.
g) Sri Lanka to become the Financial and logistical hub of South East Asia.

All above factors and many unstated reasons makes me believe that we will have a robust economy and bullish stock market in 2014/15. My prediction is that ASI will reach 9,000 within next 24 months.

Sunday Times

Enigma of interest rates

A judicious mix of interest rates is what makes an economy tick and that is one of the main challenges of the Central Bank (CB).
For an economy, savings is important to mobilise funds from the market which in turn could be lent to increase economic activity, create more jobs and put more money in the hands of people.

Therefore for savings to increase, interest rates must be attractive enough. On the flip side, high lending rates will not attract borrowers, and in turn stifles economic activity. Lower interest rates also affect a significant percentage of the population; those dependent (mostly pensioners) on fixed income deposits. The ‘crisis in dependence’ facing many depositors in failed finance companies is an example of how many people rely on this income.

On the positive side, a low interest rate regime stimulates the stock market, with more investors preferring to invest in this sector than in low interest, fixed deposits. The performance of companies has also been boosted by reduced interest rate costs and both these factors have been seen in recent months in the Colombo stock market. Another positive is that low interest rates should drive more investments, more borrowings.

However, low interest rates have not attracted many takers with credit growth among banks declining sharply while thousands of pensioners and others depending on fixed income from deposits have seen their earnings shrink.

This mysterious developments (or is there a ‘catch’ somewhere?) has not only stumped commercial banks but even the regulator. No one can pin down the ‘actual’ reasons why there has been slow growth in credit so much so that commercial banks and finance companies may further cut deposit rates because they are flushed with funds and no one to lend to.

Some bankers argue that low demand for credit is due to lack of business confidence while others believe it could be lack of confidence in the CB’s ability to sustain these rates for a reasonable period or suddenly switch to reverse gear.

Interest rates have been falling with the CB imposing a maximum limit in April on savings deposits in finance companies to 7.58 per cent per annum, and reciprocally savings rates much lower at commercial banks.

“May be credit growth is slow as the Central Bank’s track record of sustaining long periods of low interest is not good,” noted a stock market analyst.

Many fixed income earners say banks now add all kinds of extra costs and in addition to lower interest rates, other costs further reduce their monthly interest earnings. The Business Times has received several letters from pensioners and fixed income earners over the past few months complaining about ‘hidden’ costs by banks and their reduced earnings that is affecting the day-to-day existence. The crisis facing some finance companies and troubled forestry management company, Touchwood, is aggravating the situation and dampening enthusiasm among Sri Lankans who have money to invest but are confronted with these low interest rate issues.
In the last 12 months, fixed income earners have seen their earnings slump by at least 50 per cent.

Banks have been discussing the slow credit growth crisis with the regulator but few solutions are on the table other than the banks being repeatedly told to raise credit disbursement levels to stimulate the economy.

Last month the CB approved a credit guarantee scheme on pawning (gold) advances to resurrect this sector, which has also slowed down considerably. Bankers said the new guidelines provide for a CB guarantee on pawning advances on 65-80 per cent of the value of the pawned article, mainly for small farmers and small industrialists to increase economic activity in these sectors.

The CB, while acknowledging that credit flows to the private sector and public corporations contracted earlier this year, said in March that the ‘deceleration’ in credit growth is a temporary phenomenon. But when the situation worsened, the CB last month offered further incentives to stimulate pawning advances.

In a February 16, 2014 article titled “Central Bank’s low interest rate policy and economic pitfalls” in the Business Times, renowned economist and statistician Prof. S.S. Colombage argued that the CB is likely to continue the low interest rate regime for some time. Being a heavy borrower in the domestic money market, apart from borrowings from foreign sources, the government is an obvious beneficiary of low interest rates.

He believes reducing the government’s debt service burden may also have been a determining factor for monetary authorities to keep interest rates down though it is not explicitly acknowledged.

What are the danger signals that would arise out of a low interest rate scenario? Income levels for pensioners and fixed income earners would further slide and with borrowings on the downside, banks may continue to cut interest rates on ongoing deposits and new deposits, or add more ‘hidden’ costs.

This would force investors to seek other options, which are few – stock market or finance companies – to invest at a higher return. In any event, the return on investments would be at a single (below 10 per cent) digit level, not enough for a sizable segment of the population who solely depend on interest income to run households.

http://www.sundaytimes.lk/140615/business-times/enigma-of-interest-rates-103227.html

16ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Mon Jun 16, 2014 9:03 am

piyalpy


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Very professional and positive facts. I think that your accuracy level will be very high. I don't have enough knowledge to say about your 9000 target.

17ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Mon Jun 16, 2014 9:25 am

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert
6500 ASI is a possibility after last week GAINS.

18ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Tue Jul 08, 2014 11:18 pm

Sstar

Sstar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Quibit's Predictions seems becoming real!!!
I am glad that I am apart of Sri Lanka Equity Forum and its analytical team.

19ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Tue Jul 08, 2014 11:24 pm

NZ BOY

NZ BOY
Moderator
Moderator
yes ASPI crosses 6,500 mark for first time since 2011 this is gd sign for market

20ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Empty Re: ASI to reach 9000 in 24 months Wed Jul 09, 2014 3:44 am

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert
Now 6865 is my next target.keeping my Basketball fingers crossed

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