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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » DAILY CHRONICLE™ » 13 Signs of a Bull Market

13 Signs of a Bull Market

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113 Signs of a Bull Market Empty 13 Signs of a Bull Market Sat Jul 05, 2014 10:30 pm

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert
1)      The market reacts positively to bad news. Negative headlines and terrible earnings reports are ignored. As the saying goes, reaction to news is more important than the news itself. Good reaction to bad news is the ultimate indicator of positive sentiment. Never underestimate the power of optimism in the market – it feeds on itself and creates positive feedback loop.
2)      Plethora of high-volume breakouts to major new highs, representing different industry groups. The so called “market of stocks” environment.
3)      Low correlation market, which produces both winners and losers. There are good ideas for both bulls and bears.
4)      Defensive sectors underperform. Capital leaves perceived safety and rotates into more economically sensitive sectors.
5)      High beta names outperform as the fear of missing out becomes higher than the fear of losing. Small caps, emerging markets, low priced stocks outperform.
6)      The financial blogosphere will be filled with skepticism. Six months of trend-less , volatile market that was dominated by mean-reversion could certainly condition even the most experienced market participants to be extremely cautious with new breakouts. The rule of thumb is that during pronounced uptrends, there will always be people who will complain that the market is overbought and warn for an impending correction. As Schopenhauer stated long time ago: ““Every truth passes through three stages before it is recognized: In the first it is ridiculed; in the second it is opposed; in the third it is regarded as self-evident.”
7)      There are so many breakouts that you are confused which ones to take. You feel like a kid in a candy store or like an adult in front of a cheese stand with 200 options to choose from. This is normal – the human brain is meant to operate in an environment of scarcity. To cope with a situation like this, we have invented shortcuts that mean different things for different people. Technical analysis is one form of a short cut.
Cool      Breakouts stick and have a follow through.
9)      Most of the dips you buy, turn out profitable.
10)   Major market indexes are trading above their rising 50dma. The moving averages are typically lagging indicators, but they often play the role of a good point of reference.
11)   Market indexes are rising on increasing volume. The pullbacks are on lower volume
12)   People ask why such and such stock is up 15% today on now news. Sometimes the only news you need is the lack of bad news. Positive sentiment and money flow are powerful catalysts that could continue longer than most expect and have bigger impact than most are willing to comprehend.
13)   Your confidence increases substantially and you honestly believe that you are the best trader in the world. Don’t confuse brains with market uptrend. Overconfidence is the single biggest reason for investors’ demise. The second biggest reason is ignorance, but this is a topic of another conversation.
 
No matter the market environment you trade in, paying attention to risk management is of utmost importance. You don’t have to be right, you don’t have to be original, you don’t have to be first, but you have to take favorable risk to reward trades. If you don’t have a plan, you will become part of someone else’s plan.
I know 13 is an odd number, but this is all I could come up with at this point.
http://ivanhoff.com/2012/01/18/13-signs-of-a-bull-market/

213 Signs of a Bull Market Empty Re: 13 Signs of a Bull Market Sat Jul 05, 2014 10:37 pm

shadow walker

shadow walker
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
welll done shark.. Good to see value posts

313 Signs of a Bull Market Empty Re: 13 Signs of a Bull Market Sun Jul 06, 2014 4:20 am

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert
“No matter the market environment you trade in, paying attention to risk management is of utmost importance. You don’t have to be right, you don’t have to be original, you don’t have to be first, but you have to take favourable risk to reward trades. If you don’t have a plan, you will become part of someone else’s plan.”

This is a good one.

“No 4. Defensive sectors underperform. Capital leaves perceived safety and rotates into more economically sensitive sectors.”

Some defensive stocks also have outperformed the broader market in global bull markets.

Exception is Consumer staples stocks. There is a new development in the consumer staples sector. In global bull markets consumer staples stocks had good run during last two years. Some consumer staples have outperformed the broader market as well. For example Tea stocks have outperformed most of other stocks in Indian market during last six months. I found interesting links posted at the end of 2012 and in 2013.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/alphaprofit/2012/09/17/why-consumer-staples-investments-make-sense/

Why Consumer Staples Investments Make Sense?

http://www.zacks.com/commentary/26006/consumer-staples-stock-outlook---feb-2013

Consumer Staples Stock Outlook - Feb 2013 - Industry Outlook

413 Signs of a Bull Market Empty Re: 13 Signs of a Bull Market Sat Aug 30, 2014 11:48 am

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/recent/how_to_identify_a_bull_market_a_look_back_to_a_trading_lesson_of_the_day-640992.html

How to Identify a Bull Market: A Look Back to a Trading Lesson of the Day
July 27, 2009 By Larry Connors

“A beggar lives meal to meal. A peasant lives day to day. A farmer lives season to season. A nobleman lives year to year. A king lives 10 years at a time, and an emperor lives a century at a time.”
– Chinese Proverb
In early April, when the Dow was trading about 20% lower, I wrote a multi-part lesson titled “The Making of a New Bull Market.” The article was intended to give you a framework as to how to identify when a bear market was transitioning into a bull market.

It’s now less than four months later and the market has made its transition. And in hindsight, this market has played itself out like every preceding bear to bull transition I’ve seen in the past 28 years.
.
Showing this lesson again today is still valid in spite of the run-up because many of the things mentioned in the lesson are still occurring today. Longer term though, it’s shared with you to help guide you in future markets. If your goal is to trade and invest for many years to come, then this means you’re going to see bear markets transitioning into bull markets and bull markets transitioning into bears. That’s the nature of the market. Having the long term knowledge to see these things and understand what’s going on allows you to focus on the bigger picture for years to come.

The only thing I would add to this piece is that in the next bear to bull transition (and vice versa), you should also keep an eye on the emerging nations indices, especially China. China has been one of the leaders here as traders and investors are looking to buy growth. China’s economy remains at a rapid growth rate and may do so for years. Therefore, by adding it as another indicator, you can keep an eye on its price action and see if in fact the market is making its transition.

You can find the April’s lessons here.

We put them into one lesson in order for you to print out and keep in your records. The signs mentioned in April remained true again this time (and true again even now) and you’ll be able to use them again in future markets over and over again.

I hope you enjoy and learn from rereading these lessons.

513 Signs of a Bull Market Empty Re: 13 Signs of a Bull Market Sat Aug 30, 2014 11:50 am

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

613 Signs of a Bull Market Empty Re: 13 Signs of a Bull Market Sat Aug 30, 2014 2:26 pm

Eng Krishantha

Eng Krishantha
Expert
Expert
Thanks...

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