Technical Analytics & Charts (1)

Top Tip #3 A share can be a dog but its not for life

In stock market parlance a dog is an investment that produces a low return or a loss. If youve any long term experience of the stock market you may well have owned shares that could quite easily have howled at the moon! It is a fact of life.



But unlike dogs shares are not for life. Long-term investing known as buy and hold may not work as well now as it did in the past as a stock market strategy. Competition in many industry sectors is much greater than it was and some companies adapt better than others. Just because a company was a



Many people now buy shares in the company they work for through Sharesave Plans. This can be a tax-efficient and cost-effective way of building up a share-holding. However that doesnt mean you should hang on to the shares forever. Youre already exposed to the company because you work for it. Investing in it increases your exposure. What if the company runs into problems - its share price could fall and you could be made redundant thus facing a double whammy of losses on your investment and loss of your income.



Dont become attached to a share weve said that already. Maybe you inherited the holding maybe its the first share you ever bought. None of that matters. Whatever your reason for holding the share in the first place you need to be clinical when it comes to selling. If the share is not doing what it should for you and is not likely to in terms of income generation or capital growth then you should sell.



Shares are not to be parked under the bed and forgotten about. You may check your share prices regularly perhaps even daily but do you actually review your holdings to see if your investment strategy still makes sense. If it does fine; if it doesnt sell! Take a cold hard look at your portfolio at least every two-three months.

Although i dont agree with below RULE, some will counter argue, so i like keep silent on this one
Top Tip #4 Know when to cut your losses

No-one likes to lose and especially no-one likes to lose money. However it is better to take a small loss rather than a large loss. When you buy a share as well as setting a target profit level you should set a target loss level. Making that decision at the outset can save you a lot of agonising later on.



Of course as with profit targets you dont have to sell. But if your share reaches its loss level then you need to look very hard at the prospects for the company concerned and for its share price to have a good reason to hang on.



Biting the bullet and taking the loss if thats what you decide to do means you can use your remaining capital to find a new and better we hope investment.

Top Tip #5 Keep an eye on Directors dealings

Watching the directors was not a song by Elvis Costello but its definitely something you should be doing. You may think that if a director sells then there is something wrong with the company. That may be the case but not always. There can be a variety of reasons for directors to sell often wholly unrelated to the performance of the business.



Do bear in that in many cases the directors may well be under certain restrictions when it comes to share dealing and may often only sell certain amounts at certain times of the year. If the share price has had a good run a director will take advantage of this just like any other investor and sell simply to lock in a bit of profit. School fees may loom large as a driver for share sales.



Divorce has also been a key factor in 2004 Stephen Marks founder of French Connection and David Harding chief executive of William Hill both sold large holdings in their respective companies to fund settlements. The following year Mark Dixon of Regus Group and Sir Martin Sorrell of WPP found themselves in similar situations.



However take note if several directors are selling. You need to understand the reason why and take your decision then. Check how the company is performing and look for evidence that would provide a reason for the sales. It could well be time to follow suit.

Top Tip #6 Dont jump too soon

There are times when shares just dont move much - even when the rest of the market is roaring collapsing around them. Even shares that have been tipped as strong buying opportunities may not move much - the tip may be based on an event say the launch of a new product that is some way off. The stock market may not react until the product is out in the market and selling well.



Review your share holdings regularly. As long the fundamental reason for making the investment in the first place holds true then you may reasonably still hold the share.



Do keep an eye on the news not just the financial news. Some stories will have a more obvious impact than others. But keep in mind also that the stock market may already have taken the news into account by reacting to rumour ahead of confirmation and pricing shares accordingly.



Consider how news and events can affect the value of your shares - a profits warning will most likely send the share price lower but would a profits warning from a competitor do so Maybe - it could be a sign the sector as a whole is in trouble or it could be a sign that the company you have invested in is beating its competitors.



Other news items should also give you pause for thought. A change in interest rates will affect banking shares but may also have knock-on effects to house building retailers and travel businesses depending upon consumer reaction to the news.

Top Tip #7 Be aware beware of trends and tips

Past performance is not a guide to future performance or a trend is a trend until it isnt a trend and then its a new trend! You should treat trend analysis with caution. Be aware of trends but also beware of them.



Chartists use complex share price charts to attempt to discern the future movement of share prices from the shapes created by the charts. Theyll tell you that everything you need to know about where a share is going next can be found from the trend it has been following. A highly profitable niche industry produces a plethora of books and online and offline newsletters dedicated to Chartism.



The easiest trend to spot is where a share price moves in a certain range - never falling below a particular point and never rising above another. If the price moves out of this range either above or below it that is a good time to take a closer look at your investment and consider selling. Other trends are worth considering including seasonal consumer trends and technological change.



Trends are of course open to interpretation. So is news. As Humpty Dumpty put it in Through the Looking Glass "When I use a word it means just what I choose it to mean neither more nor less." Make sure you know the difference between fact and interpretation.



Also be wary of newspaper share tips. By the time you read them the news will already be in the share price although that doesnt mean you shouldnt follow up the idea with your own investigation.



Dont be over emotional about your shares - this is where we started and its also where we finish. If all the signs are pointing to the fact that you should sell but you still like the company dont forget you can always buy back into it later. Sell now and you could take a profit or cut a loss and buy back in at a lower price later.



If you like the company for all the right reasons the share price could well turn upwards again. Use your



Please remember that past performance is no guide to the future and that the value of shares and the level of income they provide can fall as well as rise.

Thanks Traderathome for sharing a good article.

Thanks for your sharing.

http://www.moneyextra.com/guides/selling-shares-8-top-tips-on-selling-shares.html

Redbulls wrote:Thanks for your sharing.

http://www.moneyextra.com/guides/selling-shares-8-top-tips-on-selling-shares.html

Yes you got the link right...

traderathome wrote:here is an update on my ASPI harmonic chart. The price action is some what bearish and drew the PRZ around 4040. I dont think it will go down below 4000 perhaps it could test. the next stage if this 4040 holds good see testing of 4500 to the upside, and continue till 6200 .... confirming the next leg down around this point (bearish 5-0 pattern)
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Something i missed to inform about its immediate support which is 4455...sorry guys.after all i am human too

Hellow traders, seeing some short rallies since last week. but be cautious this could be a short term lived bull run...greece will vote in another few days....although spain banks as they say will overcome through a bail-out. we are not yet out of danger.
I thought of to publish a chart on SLT that exactly shares my own sentiments for the coming days. Thats short term profit taking.I guess anyone could understand what iam trying to say....like a picture speaks thousand words

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The chart i am publishing now is at important fib level, with possible target within 12-18 months. worst case scenario it may go further down if economic conditions are not good enough in coming days with lots of selling pressure by sellers who wants to cut losses and avoid margin calls.

whoever long on this one GL......
possible targets drawn for information only....

i am not responsible for your losses or profits....as i dont get paid for the free service. Trade with CARE and do your due diligence.

here is the chart BTW. enjoy keep your comments coming in....


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i will update 2 charts for PLC and TJL....both in same patterns but need confirmation of one more leg up......to draw my HPP.... anyhow visit my thread in short while......from now.

[quote="traderathome"]

traderathome wrote:here is an update on my ASPI harmonic chart. The price action is some what bearish and drew the PRZ around 4040. I dont think it will go down below 4000 perhaps it could test. the next stage if this 4040 holds good see testing of 4500 to the upside, and continue till 6200 .... confirming the next leg down around this point (bearish 5-0 pattern)
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for most traders the 5000 level may seem as a iconic level to breach,the real strength of the bulls would be only confirmed if ASI go above 5500, where resistance may show up @ 5470. we dont want the speculators thrust to break all levels instantaneously, what we need is some good fundamentals locally and globally supportive of such move alongwith big local / foreign players taking a calculated effort on technicals on northbound to realise this objective.in this run up i would expect a short breather in an around 5200 levels before testing further high. the medium term targets of of 6170points lies at strategically important if its going to take the 7000levels there after.

GL

Thanks traderathome for sharing valuable charts.

here is the updated asi chart with the reversal points. and possible targets for the long term....5500, 6200 7250 and 7800


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traderathome wrote:here is the updated asi chart with the reversal points. and possible targets for the long term....5500, 6200 7250 and 7800

@traderathome: I know this chart is important because it provides possible long term targets. But some of us are 'technically challenged'... We would appreciate a brief commentary highlighting the key features of your chart and explaining how each of those targets has been derived. Thanks!

Antonym wrote:

traderathome wrote:here is the updated asi chart with the reversal points. and possible targets for the long term....5500, 6200 7250 and 7800

@traderathome: I know this chart is important because it provides possible long term targets. But some of us are 'technically challenged'... We would appreciate a brief commentary highlighting the key features of your chart and explaining how each of those targets has been derived. Thanks!

I am very glad you asked that question. In any HPP (Harmonic Price Pattern) the peaks and low points act as Res or Supports.
the ASI chart depicted is now called as a BULLISH SHARK PATTERN, the last leg down in this case colored in BLUE and RED can extend below 1.618~2.24 FIB Levels.
The Bullish Shark Pattern can turnout to be a Bearish 5-0Pattern after moving up50% from last leg down. This is known as the correction leg.That is why i indicated 6250 to be precise will be the make or break for the BULLS although for me its the 50% retracement level. The shaded area indicates the entering of to the neutral zone (38.2%) which tested twice and failed. If this RES is broken, the momentum will carry up towards the first leg up which acted as a peak point and got corrected. which is confluencing around 7250 level. If left enough steam to break this 7250 we will surely see 7800 testing within 15-18months from now.

Hope this clears my target levels, please do let me know i will try and put some guide points to denote the peaks and the lows on the pattern for the noobs tryng to understand.

Sorry if i confused you more

Happy Trading/Investing
TAH

Thanks traderathome for the excellant chart.

As I understand your analysis, the areas to watch is where two FIBs overlap with each other. In short, the market is likely to go up upto areas you have identified (where FIBs overlap) with some corrections in between. Please correct me if I am wrong.

K.Haputantri wrote:Thanks traderathome for the excellant chart.

As I understand your analysis, the areas to watch is where two FIBs overlap with each other. In short, the market is likely to go up upto areas you have identified (where FIBs overlap) with some corrections in between. Please correct me if I am wrong.

no hapu....i have drawn 2 fibs, i will try an put it on fresh chart......so it should look easy to understand.

please note HPP is a simple yet effective strategy.....
regards
TAH

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X, A & B are the levels to look, additionally BC leg retracement from C to B 50%FIB, which can have a correction leg to the lower....

hope its clear....now

TAH

Thanks buddy....really valuable

Sorry guys its taking time for me to upload chart of JKH.

Will do it this evening.....

Smiling...
TAH

traderathome wrote:[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

X, A & B are the levels to look, additionally BC leg retracement from C to B 50%FIB, which can have a correction leg to the lower....

hope its clear....now

TAH

hi, can you pls explain it with simple words, because i do not understand what you are saying.
Thank you.

Ok.. i will explain in most simplest.....longterm traders can continue to hold their shares till about 6200 ASPI level, and sell 1/3........ look for 2nd sell off around 7200 level 3rd around 7800 levels. try and load at these levels to maximise.....while selling the earlier lots you purchased.

hope you got it now....

Friendly
TAH

traderathome wrote:Ok.. i will explain in most simplest.....longterm traders can continue to hold their shares till about 6200 ASPI level, and sell 1/3........ look for 2nd sell off around 7200 level 3rd around 7800 levels. try and load at these levels to maximise.....while selling the earlier lots you purchased.

hope you got it now....

Friendly
TAH

Thanks Friendly TAH for giving us a view, of an experienced techs vantage point.
Much appreciated.

Here is my view on JKH.N....appreciate one of the members for highlighting this one i guess it was whitebull......thanks for showing this on a chart, although we tend to disagree abouts how we percieve on the same counter about whether Inversed H&S formation. But this what all of us need in a forum,diversified opinions ....and not to proove who is right and who is'nt.

all we need is healthy conversation... to keep thing moving.

my chart indicates a trend reversal for this counter, and possibly heading towards 205~210.
let me remind you i am not holding this one as yet.so i am not trying to promote nor advise you to buy this one.

i am seeing price continuation till 210 rs..and to get in or wait for the throwback to reach the neckline before jumping in.....if it occures then we are looking basically for 60Rs gain on this one minimum.

more aggressive traders perhaps would tend to disagree and jump in right now to maximise their profits.

Good Luck & see you again on another counter....

Bullish
TAH
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Another point to note here is the counter already had made a correction to the lower by retracing around 50% fib levels, and it is on its way up steadily......

Hope the additional information, was worth enough, more pessimistic or bearish folks can ignore.... and keep selling

Sleepy
TAH

traderathome wrote:Ok.. i will explain in most simplest.....longterm traders can continue to hold their shares till about 6200 ASPI level, and sell 1/3........ look for 2nd sell off around 7200 level 3rd around 7800 levels. try and load at these levels to maximise.....while selling the earlier lots you purchased.

hope you got it now....

Friendly
TAH

thank you

did receive a cheque from odel..

anyone received ? AGAL div cheque,i have no freaking idea whether it got lost in the mail...as you all know how good /dependable our postal service is..........

anyidea guys about AGAL..appreciate your help,as these days i am highly relying on the div cheques..u see i'm broke in other words
jus managing to survive .....

Here is the JKH confluence on 3 patterns;
Inversed H&S
Symetrical Triangle Continutation
5-0 Harmonic (now preciely drawn).......

This Not Promotional Material...only to assist anyone holding this counter with possible profit taking

Good ENTRY was 190Rs.
Target (Possible) 260+ min.




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