Technical Analytics & Charts (1)

I am sensing a Bearish Gartley in the formation, and its in the final phase. The patter would complete once 1.27~1.41 Fib level reaches around max of 110~105. So imo we should look for another buying opportunities.




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Thanks TAH

Data courtesy of smallv

All this Graphs,formula and other measurements are mainly depend on
"RATIONAL BEHAVIOR OF MARKET PARTICIPANTS"
But our people's behavior is not-RATIONAL

You can't see ECONOMIC MAN BEHAVIOR IN SRI LANKA
STOCK MARKET
Any way NO economic reason to come down market in the near future

D.G.Dayaratne wrote:All this Graphs,formula and other measurements are mainly depend on
"RATIONAL BEHAVIOR OF MARKET PARTICIPANTS"
But our people's behavior is not-RATIONAL

You can't see ECONOMIC MAN BEHAVIOR IN SRI LANKA
STOCK MARKET
Any way NO economic reason to come down market in the near future

Gud morning DG...That why in trading we have to always remember the phrase "Market is Always Right".

Below is an article i found while googling....so i though i will share with every1.

The market is always right. If you are a practicing professional trader that phrase has probably been run past you a few times already. But we always need a reminder. No one is perfect. We all make mistakes, its part of being human. Trying to take revenge on the market for blowing a large chunk of your trading float is normal. In the course of your share trading you may have held on too long to a stock or too short. The thing is we can never pick out the tops and bottoms. We are only there for the ride. We hitch a ride on the trendline and get off once the trend has finished.

If during the course of your share trading you have totally obliterated your account. There is hope. You can always fix your mistakes. You just need to learn from them. The traders who learn the fastest succeed faster. For those who are stubborn and think they can outsmart the market - well you'll soon be humbled (by the market). For those who think I'm venting as a result of my account being smashed. You're wrong.

My share trading is going along fine. As part of my risk management strategy I have recently had to take a few losses - its a part of trading - but every time you hit that exit button knowing you're going to realise a loss - it impacts my emotions. But then, I remember that if I didn't have those stops, I may have lost even more. Discipline and control is the name of the game for share trading.

Thanks & regards
TAH

Thanks TAH. Its a good explanation with your practical experience.

Thank you TAH You are correct

So far no loss for me. I lost
i have earned from stock market After Mrs S
Long ago i was able to recover more than i invested

Thanks again

I ask for 75 @1145 some1 sold me 48 of NEST

Whoever that may be Thanks
Go ahead and fill the rest please before the EOD

Now i need further credit .....facility my broker wont allow for sure...i will have to ask my wife to lend ...but she wont give.....me and she tells me what i did with the money invested last november. she has more knowledge about cse than me and told me dont invest in cse because its going down...i kept telling her this is a good opportunity to buy...so please help me to make my investment double and become a millionaire at the age of 38 and not 23.she says you have already exceeded the limit and dont trouble her again.so i reminded about the funds we invested jointly at LOLC with islamic investment intrument.she told be dont touch that.....so what do i do ? then i remember that phrase we all of us ought to keep in mind GREED and FEAR will ruin you in the marketttttttttttttt



So no more extra funding to buy JKH

Good luck all
TAH

traderathome wrote:So imho, this run can take us to 5900 on its way up minor resistance around 5500 with next testing @5900.

Hopefully we can offload some around 6200
So Enjoy the Run...
TAH

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The market could in overbought level around 6000 so some would want to offload ....

So guys have all options covered....

It could be just a blip but for me i wouldnt wanna take chance this uptrend will be able maintained at this pace...so it may need to take a breather so possibly medium term correction.



Good luck
TAH

5900,6000 and 6200 could be turning points for med correction. any1 seeing differently ,please feel free to share your thoughts.....here may be i am reading too much into the chart patterns.1thing is the the targets already met for the rounding bottom......

so do share what ever you see.....on ASI daily chart.


Regards
TAH

traderathome wrote:BFL
This afternoon i purchased few shares of BFL, and thought i would share my thoughts on the purchase.[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

major reversal zone around 126/125Rs youwould see the fib levels of 261.8% further below i would place an order around rs 50/- should BFL prices slides further below.I am anticipating the prices to pull to Rs 215/- around Rs 123/-. If we go by AB=CD pattern the next reversal should also confluence around Rs 123/-. Did you notice around 27/7/2011 prices moved up Rs 100/-.perhaps not in the same amounts at least i am expecting 90/-Rs up from Rs 123-125 to have a Lower High established.

Good Luck....

margin Kills you,so trade with your own real money,if you are so desperate to make money,visit the nearest casino to burn your hard earned wealth.Stock trading is not a gamble.I am not responsible for your decisions nor this is an investment advise.this post is only for information purpose.i am neither promoting this share just because i bought it.

A post i did in April this year....i am doing a post mortem and the reversal was around 123 when i drew, and if i saw correct the fell up to 111 or closer....so the magical fib worked and those who doubt technicals do not matter in trading, let it be known that you can not take things lightly or for granted when trading, you need these tools dearly.....

like i say Fundamentals will tell you What to BUY and technicals will tell you when to BUY..as simple as that...
those who followed the stock from PRZ levels please remember your target when entered the trade...and do accordingly..

Always its better to analyse your trading style and look back how effective your analytics...that would boost your morale to think clear....

if you look at my some of the earlier charts they look pretty awful sight and i am embarrased

Good luck

TAH

Hi TAH,

Could you please indicate factors for following in making a decision,

what are the factors we need to consider for fundamental basis

what are the factors for technical basis

Best
FBR

fairbullrun wrote:Hi TAH,

Could you please indicate factors for following in making a decision,

what are the factors we need to consider for fundamental basis

what are the factors for technical basis

Best
FBR

Hi FBR,
Well fundamentals you can know by looking at quarterly,6month and yearly financial reports which are published in the CSE. You need not be a financial accountant to analyse every thing.

i tend to read the yearly review by the chairman of the company to see what plans for future of course he would be biase when stating such things but you can cross check his track records. Another factor would be the P/E ratio, cash surplus,dividend yield its very important, whether they announce regular dividends,NAVPS EPS and sector P/E. for a starter i would give priority P/E ratio with less than 8 in choosing to invest.


There are may be other factors which you should find through papers ....but not necessarily this can be found here as most members do research and post it for you.

May be slstock, smallv , redbull and others have ocean of knowledge on CSE. and they might give you further insight.....

Regards
TAH

Thanks lot for ur valuable time and knowledge, off course, I have observed their contribution to the forum excellent and encouraging
Regards,
FBR

So i try to keep it simple when getting into fundamentals...i dont want too much complications and interpretations.....once i identify the share i look at the members and would seek advise of few so that to narrow down any doubts, and when the decision is made its my decision and i am totally responsible. i then look at a good entry price and an exit price at the beginning of the trade, with lowest risk i am able to absorb with.

I think covered the fundamental aspect of choosing a counter.

TAH

fairbullrun wrote:Hi TAH,

Could you please indicate factors for following in making a decision,

what are the factors we need to consider for fundamental basis

what are the factors for technical basis

Best
FBR

Fundamental -

There are many factors to consider.. Finanacial statements, strength of the balance sheet, debt position, current/liquidity ratios, competitor analysis, industry analysis,
environmental analysis (micro & macro factors), government policies applied to the industry and the future anticipated changes are some.

Technical -

Apart from the basic patters (traingles, bottoms, trend lines, wedges, channels, etc..), the strength of a trend, MA crossovers, MACD/SAR divergence are the things I'm looking at.

important : my way of looking at the market may be totally or a bit different.
And surely on the contrary to the clan of guys who are just following the greater fools..

Its still not the time to press the sell button....ASI still has the legs to move....

A close below this level by the end of the week should create some jitters,but i am still bullish biase

I am yet to close any trades as individual targets are long way....

Good luck for tmrw

Here is an article on mental toughness....

http://www.tradewithprecision.com/files/Mental%20Toughness%20For%20Traders.pdf

Thank you TAH, good one to read, Rgrds, FBR

Few Trading Jokes

The market is weird. Every time one guy sells, another one buys, and they both think they're smart.

Today the market brought us back to earth as most of us were on cloud 9 thinking the rapid upward move we had witnessed last 10 days.

Todays spinning top formation of the daily candle pattern is described as a neutral signal. so we will see tomorrow how the market would behave and decide future course of action.

For me the 5550 should act as the support,but we dont know what the market would offer us tomorrow.

If SEC allows to trade indexes ASI & MPI or S&P, i would BUY ASI @ 5590 SL 5545 TP 5900-6000-6200 so risk is 45 for better reward ratio.

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who can sell me NEST @1145 and fill my pending order that was partially filled.

The ASI should have a nice ride till about 625X - 662X



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traderathome wrote:The ASI should have a nice ride till about 625X - 662X

The reversal expected @ 50% FIB 625X so i would be little wary between above levels.



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I will look for specific targets on each share i am holding...to take profit and hopefully to catch something on the pull back

Lets play it safe

Same chart above looked differently. where as ASI broke the bearish channel 2 days ago.now the horizon is open to explore below 66XX with target in 7XXX after the pull back likely between 62XX~66XX.

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More Good Days are ahead Bulls are firmly in control ....lets keep the momentum going ...Just got into BFL today.... with 215Target (Based on old chart re-published few posts before.

TAH

I am holding fewer shares now to maximise profit...... Bit risky though..

traderathome wrote:I am holding fewer shares now to maximise profit...... Bit risky though..

YEs yesterday I sold some MAL to take profit expecting a 5% dip atleast. But had to hurry back and buy at same price but only got 50% of what I sold . When the bull in control anything can jump quickly.

will the T/O reach over 2 billion tomorrow.... Would be fantastic if it happens...

Fed launches QE3: the full statement
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has announced a third round of quantitative easing in a bid to help America's weakening economy. Here is the Fed's statement in full.


Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months. Growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but growth in business fixed investment appears to have slowed. The housing sector has shown some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level. Inflation has been subdued, although the prices of some key commodities have increased recently. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2pc objective.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40bn per month. The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. These actions, which together will increase the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities by about $85bn each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee also decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0pc to 0.25pc and currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed additional asset purchases and preferred to omit the description of the time period over which exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted.

TAH

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9541838/Fed-launches-QE3-the-full-statement.html

The stimulus for the weakening US economy by FED Chief Bernanke, would demand for more oil and energy consumptions and we will see hike for in oil prices in coming days.....

This imo, will prompt govts to increase oil prices to cut any losses due to high prices.

The Indian Govt is increasing today the diesel prices...surely GOSL will follow soon or later.



LLUB you beauty....enuf consolidating @ 180-160 its time you look for upward trajectory closer to 250... for your products

TAH