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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CHRONICLE™ ANALYTICS » Technical Analytics & Charts (1)

Technical Analytics & Charts (1)

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481Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sat Dec 15, 2012 11:58 am

smallville


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
CTC - 1000
LLUB -300

The above means 90-100% appreciation.. Is there any real reason TAH?

482Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sat Dec 15, 2012 1:29 pm

traderathome


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:CTC - 1000
LLUB -300

The above means 90-100% appreciation.. Is there any real reason TAH?
both are in areas unknown which is also called virgin areas/zones meaning no resisitance...when shares enter these zones prices can franatically sky rocket ...... i prefer 1000 as a mentally res. zone it could act a barrier to me .... Very Happy

483Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sat Dec 15, 2012 1:38 pm

traderathome


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

@smallville wrote:CTC - 1000
LLUB -300

The above means 90-100% appreciation.. Is there any real reason TAH?
though i do not want to give extra cushion for comfort but it goes w/o saying my target for longterm for llub would be 500Rs Laughing Laughing

rabbit

484Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sat Dec 15, 2012 1:40 pm

traderathome


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
now dont go buying llub/ctc and nest just bcos i put te targets tongue

as you know i am holding all these 3 king
TAH

485Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sat Dec 15, 2012 2:33 pm

smallville


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@traderathome wrote:
@smallville wrote:CTC - 1000
LLUB -300

The above means 90-100% appreciation.. Is there any real reason TAH?
both are in areas unknown which is also called virgin areas/zones meaning no resisitance...when shares enter these zones prices can franatically sky rocket ...... i prefer 1000 as a mentally res. zone it could act a barrier to me .... Very Happy

On the contrary, the above two seems defensive counters to me. Means, share price appreciates slowly and investors are comfortable holding on to these for rich dividend policies. For that matter even NEST is ok. In addition, they dont fall much with downtrends.

This is my belief; CTC at 670-720, there was a slow collection.. And they unloaded it ard 760-800. I thought CTC was making a cup and a handle, there was a nice rounding bottom too but it didnt turn to neither.
LLUB after few subdivisions, still stand tall in the bear phase of the market. From 162, it slowly climbed to 200 in 6 months in a nice up channel. Then peaked at 204 before going down. I'd have entered ard 170 and released at 200 Wink. See, from 162, it has not even come to 50% retracement before the pull back.
Nevertheless, one cannot say these are not good. These have served their purpose after all. Even investors get regular dividends. The cons are; for LLUB, we cannot expect much growth after tax hike. I mean for their products to sell, it needs to have a new market. Currently vehicle market is somewhat stagnated.

Was CTC subject to a recent tax hike in 2012 budget? CTC could be the highest tax payer in the country. As long as our idiots keep on burning their lives with cigars, this is in another industry that never goes down Wink

486Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty LLUB & NEST Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:34 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
yes small ......these 3 are a must have in any1 PF.

regarding your intepretation for the chart rounding bottoms are a trnd reversal patterns meaning the intepreation can not be applied 100% in my view as the counters are trend continuation know Rolling Eyes .

if i remember the CTC and LLUB were in consolidation mode befor e the break out @ 702 (not sure the price b/o) & 185/-. i will have to dig into my thread HPP for the exact explanation i had given some months back. will repost it for all of us.....to bring in fond memories from past Basketball

TAH

487Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:49 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@traderathome wrote:Are you seeing...what i am seeing.......@ Start of a Bull Run.....

And where will LLUB be when its breaks the consolidation..... Very Happy

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

TAH

My Target is Rs 270/-~Rs 300/- Levels are a possibility.....Anyone sharing my sentiments.....I dont have a time frame,but i can see where this could end up.So its a less risk i have loaded ......

I heard about a chinese stimulus package ........ Very Happy
Reposted....

488Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:54 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@traderathome wrote:
@traderathome wrote:So imho, this run can take us to 5900 on its way up minor resistance around 5500 with next testing @5900.

Hopefully we can offload some around 6200 cheers
So Enjoy the Run... Very Happy
TAH
bounce
[url][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/url]

The market could in overbought level around 6000 so some would want to offload .... Basketball

So guys have all options covered....

It could be just a blip but for me i wouldnt wanna take chance this uptrend will be able maintained at this pace...so it may need to take a breather so possibly medium term correction.

cheers

Good luck
TAH
some postings from the past....... Shocked

489Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sat Dec 15, 2012 5:13 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@traderathome wrote:2 more BUY LIMIT orders on ACAP & NEST..... Very Happy

I wish i had a 100 more Grands to load JKH so that i can complete my BUYING orders.

Very Happy

NEST i expect min 200Rs appreciation so that 1500 becomes within reach..... Very Happy
ACAP just speculative...i guess this is the only one apart from LIOC wants to play with..... pirat


Looking forward to a sunny week ahead at the bourse.

Happy Trading
TAH
its refreshing when targets are met. but more embarasing when stop losses are met... Laughing Embarassed

490Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:44 pm

sahan8896


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@traderathome wrote:
@traderathome wrote:2 more BUY LIMIT orders on ACAP & NEST..... Very Happy

I wish i had a 100 more Grands to load JKH so that i can complete my BUYING orders.

Very Happy

NEST i expect min 200Rs appreciation so that 1500 becomes within reach..... Very Happy
ACAP just speculative...i guess this is the only one apart from LIOC wants to play with..... pirat


Looking forward to a sunny week ahead at the bourse.

Happy Trading
TAH
its refreshing when targets are met. but more embarasing when stop losses are met... Laughing Embarassed
ACAP is a good one.Holding 30 for a long time.Hard to buy below 30.

491Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sat Dec 15, 2012 9:54 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
I just split the earlier thread and attached it here.. It was not ethical to talk abt other shares on a thread written for PLC Wink

Coming back to the CTC & LLUB;

Rounding bottom is a reversal.. so need to have a downtrend.

Cup n handle can form anywhere and indicate the trend is continuing Wink So it should highlight a consolidation period followed by a breakout.

What this weekly chart of CTC tells? Looks like a Wave Wink

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

For CTC, Cup n handle was almost being formed (i mean it almost looked as its being formed) but it didnt follow with a proper breakout from handle.
Rather it took many months to form a consolidation pattern and a breakout @ 720.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Now ADX tells me the CTC trend is strong (seems upward in these days) while RSI and MACD indicate its nearing a reversal or a pullback (if we take it in optimistic way)

For LLUB, in weekly chart, it showed abt a 30 month long consolidation being broken in October. It was swinging from 150-183 for during that time.

In below daily chart, it shows a nice up channel and a fall back.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

While this can stay in 170-180, the trend doesn't seem to be strong but it doesn't mean it cannot pass 204 either since RSI & MACD have more room to fill up Wink

492Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sat Dec 15, 2012 11:52 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks small...... Very Happy

for taking the time to analyse both shares..

always feels good when someone does that know Smile

493Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sun Dec 16, 2012 1:12 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Here is the LLUB chart on HPP.


[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

494Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:16 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Potential H&S chart formation is in progress on ASI

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

495Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:13 am

nimantha80


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@traderathome wrote:Potential H&S chart formation is in progress on ASI

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

traderathome I'm sorry to say that your way of thinking is not valid in CSE.If you try to look at a graph and find patters according to time periods then that is the biggest mistake you do in CSE.Potential for the above senario you mention is zero.Market will move down.Then you will be able to find another pattern after changing the interval.May be you can take two year ASI.The conclution will still be wrong.Anyway today it should be more red and within next three weeks index will be below 5200.

496Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:37 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@nimantha80 wrote:
@traderathome wrote:Potential H&S chart formation is in progress on ASI

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

traderathome I'm sorry to say that your way of thinking is not valid in CSE.If you try to look at a graph and find patters according to time periods then that is the biggest mistake you do in CSE.Potential for the above senario you mention is zero.Market will move down.Then you will be able to find another pattern after changing the interval.May be you can take two year ASI.The conclution will still be wrong.Anyway today it should be more red and within next three weeks index will be below 5200.

Nimantha, we all knew december is dull and you also clearly have been warning about the downfall almost everyday in this forum. I would like if you can explain why you are so concerned alerting everyday about this sell off in Dec. Is it because you care so much about everybody and you are 100% positive there will be massive force selling at the end of the month?

Also I see you now have upgraded your ASI fall to 5200 from 5000.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t24628-save-your-money-and-time#146568


Things change and can change. Nobody correctly predicted the Interest rate cut so soon ( we knew it will happen but did not know it will happen in dec) . What if they cut another few points again. What if some Capital market development plan is released. Even if there is some force selling , this can be done systematically now. Does all brokers have to wait till end of Dec to sell everythign at the same time.
What if the Govn wants to see CSE ending up with lesser loss by the end ofthe year.

All these things are possible but we do not know.

The key point I am trying to make is , let us not try to predict too much and be sure about anything soo much unless we are 100% positive.

Sometimes been neutral is better than being overly positive or negative . That way we can see things that we do not usually see. Also one has to go with an Invetment plan,. It can differ from person to person. If I say go with longterm approach there will be some who will oppose it and say their method is the best.

In Short term things fluctuatate, but long term, capital markets go up ( if you hold good companies). Don;t believe me? Look at last 20 years.

497Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:07 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@traderathome wrote:Potential H&S chart formation is in progress on ASI

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
should this formation materialise, in this form we are seeing the major b/o to occur around 5550 Smile

after the initial correction took around 50% what we are seeing is the retesting to the down side once again....this time 61%Fib....

which means it could bounce off @50% , or 61% to shoot up to 5800+ or go for an extreme correction downside.

@Nimantha
Patterns some time fails,yes then we look for other patterns that can apply to the current situation/movements....(If ASI is down to @61% Fib levels then we all know the H&S pattern has failed,but if bounces off @50%Fib, then we know the pattern is in tact and it should go up towards 5550 again from 5400 levels) What i mention here is that such and such pattern is in progress...i may be wrong if it fails....but simply alerting the members to look for this pattern formation in the coming days or future...who knows this could be what we are looking for for the up move to trigger in 2013...what you say that there will more red days meaning 5400 in H&S pattern which is the right shoulder formation...if you are expecting more red then a 61% correction.

TAH Smile

498Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:16 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
For me 50% bounce off would be meaning ful....but you never know what the market has to offer in all circumstances... Very Happy

TAH

499Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:25 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@traderathome wrote:Potential H&S chart formation is in progress on ASI

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

inverted H&S Razz

500Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:19 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:
@traderathome wrote:Potential H&S chart formation is in progress on ASI

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

inverted H&S Razz
absolutely..... Smile

501Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Tue Dec 18, 2012 3:59 pm

Expert

Expert
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Double bottom, or 'W'. Correct?

502Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:58 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Bit surprised to see the capital trust technical analtycs (18th December 2012) predicting the same Inverted H&S and the B/O they suggest 5600 where as my calculation it should be around 5550 Very Happy

feels good... rabbit
TAH

503Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:16 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Could we expect a short rally towards 5600 before year end Smile

504Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:19 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
That would be a failed pattern on inverted hns if the rally continues now, however purpose would be served any how.

505Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 25 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:22 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I prefer a further pull back towards 5400 then a shoot up by some positive n encouraging sentiments couple with rate cuts.

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