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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CHRONICLE™ ANALYTICS » Technical Analytics & Charts (1)

Technical Analytics & Charts (1)

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81Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Mon May 21, 2012 12:26 am

traderathome


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Tomorrow is another day will be re injecting as I build my equity investment portfolio

82Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Mon May 21, 2012 12:57 am

stumpy


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
tomorrow is good for selling! Razz

83Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Mon May 28, 2012 2:24 am

traderathome


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
next week or 2 it will be a make or break with greece elctions the FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) will decide where to dump their monies imo. With Bloomberg stating most of them are eyeing EM (Emerging Markets), but surely we(SEC) need to put CSE in order.Surely the market is at attractive levels.Just we need a jump start Very Happy

84Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Mon May 28, 2012 5:19 am

val2004


Stock Trader
Hi traderathome,

can you Please explain how to trade the following Harmonic Price Patterns:

ABCD Pattern
Three-Drive Pattern
Gartley Pattern

thanks a lot

V

85Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Mon May 28, 2012 11:32 pm

traderathome


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@traderathome wrote:next week or 2 it will be a make or break with greece elctions the FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) will decide where to dump their monies imo. With Bloomberg stating most of them are eyeing EM (Emerging Markets), but surely we(SEC) need to put CSE in order.Surely the market is at attractive levels.Just we need a jump start Very Happy
Hi Investors

Its been long since i updated BFL stock which i purchased sometime back.As you most us are suffering due to down trend, extreme selling pressure due to economic woes all over not only related SL,but USA,India,Europe due to uncertainities ...and slow-down of growth.we are bound to have this sort of scenarios. Most people exit to cut short losses as no one can in certainity tell when the market will reverse. But there are signs people will get over greece and spain issues. so to avoid any spill over effect on rest of the eurozone. so come greece elections we will for sure know how issues will span out and options will be on the table for germany and france to decide.

Regarding the BFL i attach herewith possible PRX around current market level and around Rs 62 levels. I will reload between 90-60 the remaining 2 lots. as you know i trade /buy in 3 lots eg. with 1,000,000 investment i take 7.5-10% and divide in to 3lots and purchase at different levels. That about an insight to my trading.

The chart is self explanatory....[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

86Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Mon May 28, 2012 11:39 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@val2004 wrote:Hi traderathome,

can you Please explain how to trade the following Harmonic Price Patterns:

ABCD Pattern
Three-Drive Pattern
Gartley Pattern

thanks a lot

V
Hi Val,

The trades on HAT or HPP is very simple but you need to select some volatile conters and fundamentally string shares. While base on your selection no one can guarantee 100% precission but this will give you some confidence when to purchase a share and what price you should pay for them.so basically you will not chase the market but you wait for the market to come to you Laughing . you need patience which is utmost important. i buy in 3 lots as indicated in my last post so you avoid risking whole amount in one go.instead you spread the risk over 3 levels. check website and read and learn and draw your charts and will discuss it over here. that way all can learn including me. Very Happy so i look forward to see some positive feed back from your end Cool

87Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Mon May 28, 2012 11:55 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
My 2nd and final chart for the week i guess Very Happy [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

88Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Tue May 29, 2012 1:04 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
The price action is very important when it come to decision making whether to commit on a trade or not.....here is a chart i thought would be worth having a look at...which is with a potential reward if you hold on or get in at the right time +/- from PRZ levels squared/boxed for easy understanding. cheers [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]


[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

89Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Thu Jun 07, 2012 9:39 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Today i think the cse will close in GREEN Very Happy

90Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Jun 08, 2012 1:45 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@traderathome wrote:Today i think the cse will close in GREEN Very Happy
The market will close tomorrow in GREEN as well..... Very Happy afro

sentiments a tad greenish/bullish imho

we are seeing us markets rallying after fed chairmans hawkish outlook back of euro slowdown/mess. positive figures driving the market. lets see how this reflects in cse. lol!

91Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Jun 08, 2012 2:02 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Here is my chart on LFIN.....looking to buy around 68-60 mark poin from current market price sittin @98...thats about 30 rs down...also extreme buy point would be rs 17 will it come down.....only time can prove that...if things will see gloomy, there is little choice the price will hold in the 98 mark. but you can not rule out possibility of prices sliding to 40-60 region.[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

92Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Jun 08, 2012 2:48 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
This is my last chart on SLT another fundamentally strong share currently on the slide.....the telecom giant has positive in net cashflow as per last financials...
the bullish trend still in tact,while bump and run trend line coming back to realistic values around Rs 30/- is the price to buy for me ....which would look really attractive for me imho.

although us job data seems modest,but underline figures are much worst although this is not shown as per Mort Zuckerman, so we can not totally rely on us economy state,

the biggest export market for us is the euro in combine makes up 20%..so they would like euro to do good during election year drunken

as i write NASDAQ is in RED...... Crying or Very sad

when world economy in dire ,our exports too will suffer...


[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

93Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Jun 08, 2012 2:51 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
damn S&P500 now marginally RED

94Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Jun 08, 2012 3:10 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
we will see market is see sawing until end of greek elections.... Very Happy i mean RED/GREEN and vice versa...no clear directions No

95Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Jun 08, 2012 12:04 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
here is an update on my ASPI harmonic chart. The price action is some what bearish and drew the PRZ around 4040. I dont think it will go down below 4000 perhaps it could test. the next stage if this 4040 holds good see testing of 4500 to the upside, and continue till 6200 .... confirming the next leg down around this point (bearish 5-0 pattern)
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

cheers

96Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Jun 08, 2012 12:24 pm

Green79

Green79
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
i always await to read your thread.

Cheers...!

97Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Jun 08, 2012 12:47 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Green79 wrote:i always await to read your thread.

Cheers...!
thanks for your compliments, i will try and update as and when time permits. Smile happy to note some are honestly following trading patterns based on harmonic price action. instead just buying on guessing or gambling in stock market, and lose our money.

also imo i trade same counter on 3 lots.i guess i told some where in my thread and now i cant find it.any how its very simple strategy.instead buying shares at one go we will do it in 3 lots by dividing original investment on that counter you are interested.

example 1 million x 7.5%=75000 this you divide it into 3=25000/lot so you will invest according to trailing price actions. hope this clears. Cool

98Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Jun 08, 2012 7:33 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@traderathome wrote:
@traderathome wrote:next week or 2 it will be a make or break with greece elctions the FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) will decide where to dump their monies imo. With Bloomberg stating most of them are eyeing EM (Emerging Markets), but surely we(SEC) need to put CSE in order.Surely the market is at attractive levels.Just we need a jump start Very Happy
Hi Investors

Its been long since i updated BFL stock which i purchased sometime back.As you most us are suffering due to down trend, extreme selling pressure due to economic woes all over not only related SL,but USA,India,Europe due to uncertainities ...and slow-down of growth.we are bound to have this sort of scenarios. Most people exit to cut short losses as no one can in certainity tell when the market will reverse. But there are signs people will get over greece and spain issues. so to avoid any spill over effect on rest of the eurozone. so come greece elections we will for sure know how issues will span out and options will be on the table for germany and france to decide.

Regarding the BFL i attach herewith possible PRX around current market level and around Rs 62 levels. I will reload between 90-60 the remaining 2 lots. as you know i trade /buy in 3 lots eg. with 1,000,000 investment i take 7.5-10% and divide in to 3lots and purchase at different levels. That about an insight to my trading.

The chart is self explanatory....[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
i saw it on another thread one of the bfl directors selling off his shares....so thought i will refresh my mind on this chart.... bounce

99Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Jun 08, 2012 7:34 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Top Tip #1 Dont get over-emotional about your shares

Shares are an investment a financial investment. But for many people they become an emotional investment too. That can be dangerous. Dont allow yourself to get so attached to your shares that you ignore all the signs telling you it is time to sell them.



If you have lost money because a share price has gone down it can be very hard to let go. It is only human nature to hold on grimly in the hope that the share price will go back up. Unfortunately what goes down must come back up is not a stock market rule.



Remember investing is about maximising your financial return. It is not about emotion. Most of us have only a limited amount of funds to invest so we need to use this money to its best effect. If you spot a share with better prospects than one you already hold you should consider switching your investment remembering to bear in mind the costs involved stamp duty dealing any potential Capital Gains Tax liability.



Allocating your resources correctly is what is important. Holding a share stops you using that money elsewhere so make sure youre investing for the right reasons.

100Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Jun 08, 2012 7:35 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Top Tip #2 Know when to take your profit

The best way of knowing when it is time to sell a share is to set a target profit level for yourself at the time at which you buy the share. Then assuming the price rises when the share hits your target level sell and take your profit. Remember a profit isnt a profit until youve sold the share. A paper profit will buy you nothing.



If the share price is rising it is easy to think that it will continue to do so. Theres an old stock market saying - Always leave something for the next man. Remember if youre selling somebody else has to be a willing buyer. Once you have sold be happy that you have made your profit.



Of course you dont have to sell when a share reaches your target level but if it does you should take a fresh look at the shares and consider your options. You could sell and take the profit or you could top slice your investment sell enough shares to get back your capital and perhaps some of your profit leaving part of your holding in place.



Top slicing means that if the shares fall you have protected your capital and taken a gain. If the shares continue to rise you still have some exposure and will make further profits.



Use limit orders and alerts on your

101Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Jun 08, 2012 7:36 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Top Tip #3 A share can be a dog but its not for life

In stock market parlance a dog is an investment that produces a low return or a loss. If youve any long term experience of the stock market you may well have owned shares that could quite easily have howled at the moon! It is a fact of life.



But unlike dogs shares are not for life. Long-term investing known as buy and hold may not work as well now as it did in the past as a stock market strategy. Competition in many industry sectors is much greater than it was and some companies adapt better than others. Just because a company was a



Many people now buy shares in the company they work for through Sharesave Plans. This can be a tax-efficient and cost-effective way of building up a share-holding. However that doesnt mean you should hang on to the shares forever. Youre already exposed to the company because you work for it. Investing in it increases your exposure. What if the company runs into problems - its share price could fall and you could be made redundant thus facing a double whammy of losses on your investment and loss of your income.



Dont become attached to a share weve said that already. Maybe you inherited the holding maybe its the first share you ever bought. None of that matters. Whatever your reason for holding the share in the first place you need to be clinical when it comes to selling. If the share is not doing what it should for you and is not likely to in terms of income generation or capital growth then you should sell.



Shares are not to be parked under the bed and forgotten about. You may check your share prices regularly perhaps even daily but do you actually review your holdings to see if your investment strategy still makes sense. If it does fine; if it doesnt sell! Take a cold hard look at your portfolio at least every two-three months.

102Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Jun 08, 2012 7:39 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Although i dont agree with below RULE, some will counter argue, so i like keep silent on this one Basketball
Top Tip #4 Know when to cut your losses

No-one likes to lose and especially no-one likes to lose money. However it is better to take a small loss rather than a large loss. When you buy a share as well as setting a target profit level you should set a target loss level. Making that decision at the outset can save you a lot of agonising later on.



Of course as with profit targets you dont have to sell. But if your share reaches its loss level then you need to look very hard at the prospects for the company concerned and for its share price to have a good reason to hang on.



Biting the bullet and taking the loss if thats what you decide to do means you can use your remaining capital to find a new and better we hope investment.

103Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Jun 08, 2012 7:40 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Top Tip #5 Keep an eye on Directors dealings

Watching the directors was not a song by Elvis Costello but its definitely something you should be doing. You may think that if a director sells then there is something wrong with the company. That may be the case but not always. There can be a variety of reasons for directors to sell often wholly unrelated to the performance of the business.



Do bear in that in many cases the directors may well be under certain restrictions when it comes to share dealing and may often only sell certain amounts at certain times of the year. If the share price has had a good run a director will take advantage of this just like any other investor and sell simply to lock in a bit of profit. School fees may loom large as a driver for share sales.



Divorce has also been a key factor in 2004 Stephen Marks founder of French Connection and David Harding chief executive of William Hill both sold large holdings in their respective companies to fund settlements. The following year Mark Dixon of Regus Group and Sir Martin Sorrell of WPP found themselves in similar situations.



However take note if several directors are selling. You need to understand the reason why and take your decision then. Check how the company is performing and look for evidence that would provide a reason for the sales. It could well be time to follow suit.

104Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Jun 08, 2012 7:42 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Top Tip #6 Dont jump too soon

There are times when shares just dont move much - even when the rest of the market is roaring collapsing around them. Even shares that have been tipped as strong buying opportunities may not move much - the tip may be based on an event say the launch of a new product that is some way off. The stock market may not react until the product is out in the market and selling well.



Review your share holdings regularly. As long the fundamental reason for making the investment in the first place holds true then you may reasonably still hold the share.



Do keep an eye on the news not just the financial news. Some stories will have a more obvious impact than others. But keep in mind also that the stock market may already have taken the news into account by reacting to rumour ahead of confirmation and pricing shares accordingly.



Consider how news and events can affect the value of your shares - a profits warning will most likely send the share price lower but would a profits warning from a competitor do so Maybe - it could be a sign the sector as a whole is in trouble or it could be a sign that the company you have invested in is beating its competitors.



Other news items should also give you pause for thought. A change in interest rates will affect banking shares but may also have knock-on effects to house building retailers and travel businesses depending upon consumer reaction to the news.

105Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 5 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Jun 08, 2012 7:45 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Top Tip #7 Be aware beware of trends and tips

Past performance is not a guide to future performance or a trend is a trend until it isnt a trend and then its a new trend! You should treat trend analysis with caution. Be aware of trends but also beware of them.



Chartists use complex share price charts to attempt to discern the future movement of share prices from the shapes created by the charts. Theyll tell you that everything you need to know about where a share is going next can be found from the trend it has been following. A highly profitable niche industry produces a plethora of books and online and offline newsletters dedicated to Chartism.



The easiest trend to spot is where a share price moves in a certain range - never falling below a particular point and never rising above another. If the price moves out of this range either above or below it that is a good time to take a closer look at your investment and consider selling. Other trends are worth considering including seasonal consumer trends and technological change.



Trends are of course open to interpretation. So is news. As Humpty Dumpty put it in Through the Looking Glass "When I use a word it means just what I choose it to mean neither more nor less." Make sure you know the difference between fact and interpretation.



Also be wary of newspaper share tips. By the time you read them the news will already be in the share price although that doesnt mean you shouldnt follow up the idea with your own investigation.



Dont be over emotional about your shares - this is where we started and its also where we finish. If all the signs are pointing to the fact that you should sell but you still like the company dont forget you can always buy back into it later. Sell now and you could take a profit or cut a loss and buy back in at a lower price later.



If you like the company for all the right reasons the share price could well turn upwards again. Use your



Please remember that past performance is no guide to the future and that the value of shares and the level of income they provide can fall as well as rise.

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