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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » DAILY CHRONICLE™ » U.S. crude settles at 6-month low, Brent also languishing

U.S. crude settles at 6-month low, Brent also languishing

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VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/06/markets-oil-idUSL4N0QC13P20140806

y Lorenzo Ligato

Aug 6 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Wednesday as abundant supplies in the United States drove the U.S. contract to its lowest close in six months, while Brent prices floundered near nine-month lows.

Prices saw some early support from a U.S. government report showing that U.S. crude inventories fell 1.8 million barrels last week and gasoline stocks dipped sharply. But the oil drop was smaller than the one reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday and not large enough to stem a recent drop in prices prompted in part by ample domestic stockpiles.

Crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery hub for the U.S. crude contract, rose by 83,000 barrels, which also pressured prices.

"The general trend is definitely downwards," said Tariq Zahir, an analyst at Tyche Capital Advisors in New York. "Cushing stocks got to a point were they can't go down much further. If we continue to see a build, that could open the floodgates to even lower prices."

U.S. crude for September delivery lost 46 cents to settle at $96.92 a barrel, its weakest settlement since Feb. 3.

Brent crude oil lost 2 cents settle at $104.59 a barrel, its lowest close since Nov. 7.

The spread CL-LCO1=R between the two benchmarks closed at $7.67.

Both Brent and U.S. crude had a modest rebound shortly after the release of the EIA data, as an unexpectedly steep drop in gasoline stocks, which fell 4.4 million barrels, pointed to stronger demand for gasoline in the United States.

The drop in U.S. inventories came after upbeat U.S. economic data this week showing a spike in service-sector activity to a nine-year high and a surprisingly large increase in factory orders, possible signs of better oil demand to come.

But the rebound halted in the afternoon and both benchmarks pared gains shortly after reports emerged that near 100 rail-cars arrived at the Stroud, Oklahoma unloading facility on Wednesday, the first train to arrive this month at the terminal connected to Cushing.

Oil prices have fallen more than $10 a barrel over the past six weeks, as global supply has exceeded demand, building up a glut in the Atlantic Basin and Asian markets.

Despite prolonged violence in several key oil-producing regions, traders have become increasingly nervous about weak seasonal demand and poor refinery margins in a global market that is well supplied with high quality, light crude oil.

Yet, geopolitical risk continues to bubble under the surface, with escalating tensions in Libya, Iraq and Russia.

"Worries over Russia's intentions in Ukraine are limiting factors for oil prices today, but the fact remains that any escalation in tensions with Russia put substantial volumes of oil supply at risk," said Tim Evans, Energy Futures Specialist at Citi in New York.

(Additional reporting by Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen in Singapore, David Sheppard in London and Robert Gibbons in New York; Editing by Marguerita Choy, Edward McAllister, Bernadette Baum and Chris Reese)

Santa

Santa
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
But that is Aug 6th.

The oil price has increased since then. Especially the Iraq situation is quite volatile. And it can move beyond 100 very rapidly.

So need to identify these situation when you deal with oil related shares.

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert
@Santa wrote:But that is Aug 6th.

The oil price has increased since then. Especially the Iraq situation is quite volatile. And it can move beyond 100 very rapidly.

So need to identify these situation when you deal with oil related shares.

We have to wait and see. Oil may go to around $80 per barrel.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-08/crude-oil-gains-as-u-s-strikes-militants-in-iraq.html

By Moming Zhou and Mark Shenk Aug 9, 2014 7:25 AM GMT+1200

Brent Crude Slips as U.S. Strikes Seen Protecting Supply

Santa

Santa
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
This is todays news.

http://www.independent.ie/business/world/oil-prices-rise-shares-slide-as-iraq-violence-escalates-30494206.html

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert
@Santa wrote:This is todays news.

http://www.independent.ie/business/world/oil-prices-rise-shares-slide-as-iraq-violence-escalates-30494206.html

Thank you for the link. I found another very interesting link.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2014/08/08/will-geopolitical-progress-mean-lower-oil-prices/

Will Geopolitical Progress Mean Lower Oil Prices?

8/08/2014 @ 9:35AM 744 views

Will Geopolitical Progress Mean Lower Oil Prices?

After a decade of elevated oil prices due to lost production in Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria, Libya and Iran, the past few months have seen a fairly moderate response to the advances of ISIS in Iraq, the Israeli-Hamas fighting, and the rebellion in eastern Ukraine. Prices rose as much as $10 at the worst point, and have largely declined since then, with WTI under $100 a barrel and Brent threatening to break that level.

Of course, the US bombing of an ISIS position (for which information is scant) and expectations of further involvement saw an upward blip in oil prices: explosives in an oil producing region usually have that effect on traders, even if they aren’t near any actual production facilities. Longer-term, expect the effectiveness of ISIS to erode if the US carries out more active strikes, since their ability to zoom from place to place without being observed has allowed them to concentrate forces and overwhelm opponents. If the US uses drones to attack ISIS columns, or even to provide Baghdad and/or Erbil with information, ISIS’s progress is likely to be stalled.

Even better, the growing possibility that Maliki will accept a pension (gold or lead) could mean a unity government in Baghdad which would turn less militant Sunni’s against their current allies in ISIS, plus probably lead to some resolution of the Kurdish oil export constraints. ISIS might remain a factor in parts of the northwest (and Syria), but the threat will be perceived to have peaked, and oil prices should slump as a result.

Possibly they will seek an apocalyptic exit, blowing up the Mosul dam for instance. General von Cholitz is thought to have refused Hitler’s command to demolish Paris on retreating in World War II, but ISIS seems to be at the least as bloodthirsty as the Nazis and might do something similar. The damage as far south as the oil fields could be significant, but that remains a relatively small probability. (I’m not buying real estate in central Iraq any time soon, though.)
The winding down of Israel’s incursion into Gaza is a minor factor, since it was never perceived as having any effect on oil supply. The lack of sympathy for Hamas among most oil producers was the most important factor (recall that Saddam Hussein had claimed to shut down production for a month during the second intifadah but without impact).

Reports that Putin is considering pushing a compromise on the Ukrainian separatists are also good news, as this has been a major uncertainty in global markets, as the possibility of escalation was creating just the sort of uncertainty that would weaken already anemic economies in Europe. Removal of this threat would be good for equities markets (short-term) and Europe’s economies (longer-term) which would actually be bullish for oil demand and, theoretically, prices but initially at least the potential for less violence could depress oil prices slightly.

Where we’ll be next week is certainly uncertain, but the signs suggest oil prices might be in for another dip

Eng Krishantha

Eng Krishantha
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