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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CHRONICLE™ ANALYTICS » Technical Journal Book of NC

Technical Journal Book of NC

+31
piras
glad
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fff4sl
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SHARK aka TAH
NC
35 posters

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126Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:52 am

NC


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Glas Analysis; (28/10/2014)

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Successful completion of HPP pattern and seems end of its 3rd leg. After the pattern completion we sold, now its time to look again for its 5th leg on EW.
It did 38.2% Fib retracement. ( The classical Ret: of 4th leg.)
Targets for the 5th leg is given.
T1: 4.9 - 5 ; Double top (should be with careful at this level)
T2: 5.3 -5.4
T3: 6
Generally we can look for return above 20%. With a minimum risk (5%) of STP @ 4.4/-(Weekly S1.)
Bcz Weekly PP @ 4.5. And Yesterday has closed above the Weekly pivot is a good bullish sign.
Further, in fundamentally, the reduction of electricity prices for industries and fuel prices could hope some more profits on Glas in future..
Very Happy

127Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:42 pm

NC


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Kapi:
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Small HPP can see in daily Kapi chart. Its 1st target is almost completed. Though its small, its potential to make a new HH to 60. Even with its right issue the counter has become attractive, and having a good buying pressure.
Fundamentally, strong and undervalued share. Thus with the 2015 budget construction companies are favored and large scale of constructions're proposed.
Very Happy

128Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:51 pm

RPPA


Expert
Expert

NC wrote:Kapi:
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Small HPP can see in daily Kapi chart. Its 1st target is almost completed. Though its small, its potential to make a new HH to 60. Even with its right issue the counter has become attractive, and having a good buying pressure.
Fundamentally, strong and undervalued share. Thus with the 2015 budget construction companies are favored and large scale of constructions're proposed.
Very Happy

NC

KAPI is one of my favorite stocks & i expect a major uptrend in it. So thank you for preparing a chart to conform the accuracy of judgment again.

129Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:53 pm

NC


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Namu Analysis:
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Namu is a fundamentally strong and undervalued company. Accroding to 2 years of history reading, seems its moving in a channel, as showed in the chart. A small double bottom could be identified and could ba taken as a good support and a STP.
Further, Namu is popular for its diversified crops. Mainly on Oil Palms. Continuous highest earnings even other palntation recroded lower earnings.
Thus, its attractive to investors on its higher dividends. The, con is its somewhat illquid.

130Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:37 pm

SHARK aka TAH


Expert
Expert

if goes back to 84 lovely, then should hit 100 Very Happy

131Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Tue Oct 28, 2014 5:18 pm

RoomGirl


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Thanks NC. Now we have really good team in SLEF.!

132Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Tue Oct 28, 2014 5:20 pm

NC

NC
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

SHARK aka TAH wrote:if goes back to 84 lovely, then should hit 100 Very Happy
Totally Addicted to HPP..
lol!

133Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:36 pm

NC

NC
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

One of few important persons should be Honored by Technical Readers who developed the following theories...

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

134Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Risk Management 1 Wed Oct 29, 2014 9:14 am

NC

NC
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Risk Management 1: Deciding entry points and Stoplosses

Buying stocks is simple, as simple as buying a one kilo of sugar from a shop. But deciding a entry point is not so simple. When, deciding (positions) entry point of stocks, its always risk engaged process. Hence, it should be rationally evaluated with your strategy. So, the following questions need to ask from yourself prior to jump in.
- what's the stop loss (STP)?
- How much is the risk?
- What's the target?
- How much is the risk-reward ratio?

Don't loose your money
For example if you had Rs.1000/- account. And if you loss 10%, your balance is Rs.900/-. So, lets assume next time you got a profit of 10% from Rs. 900/-. But it doesn't recover your Rs.1000/-, the total you get is Rs.990/-. Rs. 10 loss still there comparatively with the initial investment. In order to recover your Rs. 1000/- you need a profit of 11.12% not 10%. So, don't loose your money. So, it need to keep a tight STP is cut your losses.

Deciding entry points and STPs.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Above is a graph with derived by mathematical calculations.
For example a person decided to buy stock at Rs. 2.2. So, the risk as above shown in the graph relates with rate of change. The rate of change relates with your total portfolio. ( Consider the 1st example, with the profit gains.)
As shown in the chart;
1. Is the highest rate of change (RF), amount risk up to 5%. This is shown as the Minimal and the Best risk level for one to take. So, its highly recommended.
2. The next level of RF, amount risk 5% to 20%. This also could be accepted. And taken as optimal up to 10%.
3. Lower RF. Risk vary from 20% - 50%. Poor risk management. Is not recommended.
4. Lowest RF. Risk above 50%. Very poor risk management, is not recommended.

Deciding Targets:
Deciding targets, mostly go with the technical analysis. But I'm not saying fundamentally its not possible. Targets should not be too small, not too high, should be achievable in decided time frame, especially evaluating risk reward ratios.

Deciding Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR):

At least you RRR should be 2 or above 2. (Refer the 1st example). Normally my minimum RRR is 4. Means if I risk 1 rupee, I'm looking a gain of 4 rupee. But don't misunderstand it didn't mean that i'm looking for 400% gain. No its not. The percentage I risk. (20% gain and 5% risk, RRR is 4)
RRR = (Your target price - Your entry price)/ Amount you risk

So, in conclusion,
Be patience till you find a less risk level to enter. Don't blindly jump in without rationally evaluated. Targets should be evaluated carefully.  
- Risk up to 5% is the best risk level to enter.
- Risk of 5% -10% can be taken as a optimal risk.
- Above 20% risk is not recommended.
- RRR should be at least 2.

- GL
NC
Very Happy

Hope to come with, another article of "Deciding Optimal Profit Taking". And some teachnical readings of Tjl, Colo, Csd coming soon...
~ Cut your losses and let run your profits ~

135Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Wed Oct 29, 2014 9:24 am

RPPA


Expert
Expert

NC wrote:Risk Management 1: Deciding entry points and Stoplosses

Buying stocks is simple, as simple as buying a one kilo of sugar from a shop. But deciding a entry point is not so simple. When, deciding (positions) entry point of stocks, its always risk engaged process. Hence, it should be rationally evaluated with your strategy. So, the following questions need to ask from yourself prior to jump in.
- what's the stop loss (STP)?
- How much is the risk?
- What's the target?
- How much is the risk-reward ratio?

Don't loose your money
For example if you had Rs.1000/- account. And if you loss 10%, your balance is Rs.900/-. So, lets assume next time you got a profit of 10% from Rs. 900/-. But it doesn't recover your Rs.1000/-, the total you get is Rs.990/-. Rs. 10 loss still there comparatively with the initial investment. In order to recover your Rs. 1000/- you need a profit of 11.12% not 10%. So, don't loose your money. So, it need to keep a tight STP is cut your losses.

Deciding entry points and STPs.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Above is a graph with derived by mathematical calculations.
For example a person decided to buy stock at Rs. 2.2. So, the risk as above shown in the graph relates with rate of change. The rate of change relates with your total portfolio. ( Consider the 1st example, with the profit gains.)
As shown in the chart;
1. Is the highest rate of change (RF), amount risk up to 5%. This is shown as the Minimal and the Best risk level for one to take. So, its highly recommended.
2. The next level of RF, amount risk 5% to 20%. This also could be accepted. And taken as optimal up to 10%.
3. Lower RF. Risk vary from 20% - 50%. Poor risk management. Is not recommended.
4. Lowest RF. Risk above 50%. Very poor risk management, is not recommended.

Deciding Targets:
Deciding targets, mostly go with the technical analysis. But I'm not saying fundamentally its not possible. Targets should not be too small, not too high, should be achievable in decided time frame, especially evaluating risk reward ratios.

Deciding Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR):

At least you RRR should be 2 or above 2. (Refer the 1st example). Normally my minimum RRR is 4. Means if I risk 1 rupee, I'm looking a gain of 4 rupee. But don't misunderstand it didn't mean that i'm looking for 400% gain. No its not. The percentage I risk. (20% gain and 5% risk, RRR is 4)
RRR = (Your target price - Your entry price)/ Amount you risk

So, in conclusion,
Be patience till you find a less risk level to enter. Don't blindly jump in without rationally evaluated. Targets should be evaluated carefully.  
- Risk up to 5% is the best risk level to enter.
- Risk of 5% -10% can be taken as a optimal risk.
- Above 20% risk is not recommended.
- RRR should be at least 2.

- GL
NC
Very Happy

Hope to come with, another article of "Deciding Optimal Profit Taking". And some teachnical readings of Tjl, Colo, Csd coming soon...
~ Cut your losses and let run your profits ~

Good Job

NC. Great

136Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Wed Oct 29, 2014 9:30 am

zoozzoo


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

NC wrote:
One of few important persons should be Honored by Technical Readers who developed the following theories...

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

respect them Very Happy Smile

137Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Wed Oct 29, 2014 9:38 am

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Mr NC can u please do a chart on CINV.It is very undervalued and attractive for me. Thanks

138Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:15 pm

NC

NC
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

kassachandi wrote:Mr NC can u please do a chart on CINV.It is very undervalued and attractive for me. Thanks
Yes, CINV is a undervalued share. But donot go all after most undervalue stocks, bcz the counter has been unattractive due to some of reason, that couldn't be explained just looking financial statements. Its not realavent with CINV, generally satated it.
Technically, if you can wait to retest 100 its good.
However, if you hope to buy no objections. Bcz weekly pivot @ 100. If so better to keep your STP just below 98.
Very Happy
Attachments
Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Attachmentcinv.png
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139Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:20 pm

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

Thanks nc

140Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:45 pm

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Mr NC i cannot download the png file of CINV Sad

141Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:49 pm

NC

NC
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

kassachandi wrote:Mr NC i cannot download the png file of CINV  Sad
Here it's.. Very Happy servmig wasn't working when I tried to upload...

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Yes, CINV is a undervalued share. But donot go all after most undervalue stocks, bcz the counter has been unattractive due to some of reason, that couldn't be explained just looking financial statements. Its not realavent with CINV, generally satated it.
Technically, if you can wait to retest 100 its good.
However, if you hope to buy no objections. Bcz weekly pivot @ 100. If so better to keep your STP just below 98.
Very Happy

142Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:50 pm

NC

NC
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

143Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:21 am

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Thank u very much mr. NC ....

144Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:26 am

NC

NC
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

NC wrote:Namu Analysis:
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Namu is a fundamentally strong and undervalued company. Accroding to 2 years of history reading, seems its moving in a channel, as showed in the chart. A small double bottom could be identified and could ba taken as a good support and a STP.
Further, Namu is popular for its diversified crops. Mainly on Oil Palms. Continuous highest earnings even other palntation recroded lower earnings.
Thus, its attractive to investors on its higher dividends. The, con is its somewhat illquid.

Targets for Namu:
Short term: 115/- -110/-
Mid - long term: 160/-

Very Happy



Last edited by NC on Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:30 am; edited 1 time in total

145Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:30 am

NC

NC
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Tjl: Good sign of buy.
Short term target: 21/-
STP: 19/-

Very Happy

146Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:47 am

NC

NC
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Keep in touch with Wata and CSD. Opportunities ahead:
Wata will dip after XD date, 5/11/2014. Can be easily collected.
Short term Traget: 25/-
CSD: keep in touch. Target is 24/-
Very Happy

147Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:57 am

NC

NC
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

JINS.N:
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

148Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:44 pm

NC

NC
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

149Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:08 pm

fff4sl

fff4sl
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Mr.NC
Why u said to kit with CSD? Any div or sin stat out???

150Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:00 am

NC

NC
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

fff4sl wrote:Mr.NC
Why u said to kit with CSD? Any div or sin stat out???
I don't know about it and I didn't meant it.
I wanna say, Good entry points coming soon... Very Happy

151Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:18 am

NC

NC
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

152Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:28 am

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

NC wrote:JINS.N:
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Thanks NC...

153Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:37 am

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

LIOC to extend over 50+

OSEA,TJL,PLC JINS and VONE will go to next level

VPEL to the next level Very Happy

CTBL ASIY to next level

Their are other shares too will slowly move, but i am following these only.

In Finance Sector
SFIN UBC

UBC thogh over valued seem to hold on future expectations.

154Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:40 am

SHARK aka TAH

SHARK aka TAH
Expert
Expert

Also like to add VFIN Very Happy

155Technical Journal Book of NC - Page 6 Empty Re: Technical Journal Book of NC Mon Nov 03, 2014 3:22 pm

NC

NC
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

NC wrote:
fff4sl wrote:Mr.NC
Why u said to kit with CSD? Any div or sin stat out???
I don't know about it and I didn't meant it.
I wanna say, Good entry points coming soon... Very Happy
I was waited for today... Very Happy

CSD.N: Analysis

Here's the 5 years history view.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Csd is moving in a long term channel. With the Hpp its completed it 16/- the first target and hit the ML. Then it retest some support. The 14/- was a good support as it's the 50% horizontal line there. And it is retested nicely.
Targets are;
S/T (short term) - 16 (Double top and 50% ML)
M/T - 21/- (75% line and 2.61 fib.ext),
L/T- 24-25/-. (100% UML)

Here's the one year view of CSD;
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

If you clearly observed there's a small hpp. With todays break of 15/- its mostly confirmed and its good bullish sign. It could make double top at HH - 16.2/- the critical Res.
If it clearly break it'll easily move towards 21/-.

-GL
Very Happy

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