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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000)

RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000)

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241RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) - Page 13 Empty Re: RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:33 pm

Rational Investor


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@shakthi1974 wrote:Why not RWSL?

1.Monopoly in the segment.
2.Import restrictions by the government and manufacturing friendly policies.
3.Budget concessions
4.Tax concessions
5.Competitive advantage on whole business verticals from sourcing raw material to end consumer 
6.Political influence
7.Top three share holders with 91% and not going to change hands any sooner
8.Introduction of new products  (PVD/Iodine/Table)
9.Good management with a clear vision to develop the business
10.Cash rich and history with dividend payments

This is not a buy/sell recommendation, hope this info will be helpful for you yo make your decision wisely.

All points seem to be good mate. Heavy collection going on this share. Next run will be triggered on the Sep-2020 quarter results which seems to be very handsome. There will be some benefits from the budget for RWSL for sure. Basketball

242RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) - Page 13 Empty Re: RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:42 am

fireshelter


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Normally They publish report 7 Nov , Can we expect this time also

243RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) - Page 13 Empty Re: RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:26 am

Rational Investor


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@fireshelter wrote:Normally They publish report 7 Nov , Can we expect this time also

Yes Fireshelter ,Can expect more incentives from upcoming budget + improved quarterly results in coming week.

Exciting week ahead.  Very Happy

244RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) - Page 13 Empty Re: RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:47 am

fireshelter


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
santa santa santa

245RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) - Page 13 Empty Re: RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:48 am

fireshelter


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
bit sold  on Friday , with penny rally it will start

C.THARANGA dislikes this post

Rational Investor

Rational Investor
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
RWSL has reported good numbers.

Revenue YTD increased by 23% from Rs314m to Rs385m.

Profit YTD increased by 30% from Rs38.2m to Rs49.7m.

EPS YTD increased by 29% from Rs0.14 to Rs 0.18.

NAV increased from Rs4.42/- to 4.81/-.

Eranga87 and C.THARANGA dislike this post

247RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) - Page 13 Empty Re: RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) Fri Nov 13, 2020 10:18 pm

vijay singh


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
according to see RWSL financial, nothing special in here. I remembered, when RWSL prices pump and up to 11.50 with news of import restriction of salt. one of the guy(@ONTHEMONEY), clearly explained RWSL  their production limited due to current capacity level. legends know its value. now can see anyone actual situation. this performance is maximum of RWSL. Nothing to expect more with current capacity level. we turn to qtr report,

revenue growth 24%
gross profit up 9%
net profit up by 11.11%
eps marginally up from 0.13 to 0.14.

can guess annualized eps 0.46 cents and estimated market price for 2020/21 FY maximum 7.40.

Before you investing think multiple times, this potentially still worth??

RJ1010 likes this post

248RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) - Page 13 Empty Re: RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) Fri Nov 13, 2020 10:22 pm

vijay singh


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi all,


The following is an extract from the article published in srilankamirror.com. 


"Salt imports to Sri Lanka in 2018 stood at Rs. 183,700,000 and Rs. 190,500,000 in 2019. From Jan. 2020 - May 2020, the figure stood at Rs. 80,000,000"


Source :https://srilankamirror.com/biz/18672-salt-import-ban-ravi-to-reap-biggest-benefit 


Hence, if we consider the entire imported salt is produced by RWSL, the following profits and EPS can be justified.


1Q20 Revenue = Rs 158.1Mn 
2019/20 Full year revenue = Rs 756.9 
Add-Imported Salt produced by RWSL = Rs 190.0 
Total Revenue for FY 2020/21= Rs 946.9Mn [Rs 756.9+Rs 190.0]
NP Margin for FY 2020/21 = 14.18% [based o n FY2020]
Estimated Net Profit for 2020/21= Rs 134.2Mn
Estimated EPS for FY 2020/21 = Rs 0.47 per share [134.2/282Mn shares]


Estimated share price for 2020/21 FY = Rs 4.70 [0.47 @ 10PE multiples]


Therefore, even if RWSL capture the 100% import volumes of Sri Lanka and such revenue adjusted to the earnings of RWSL, the share valued valued @ Rs 4.70.


The business model of RWSL is highly dependent on the scale of production capacity in which RWSL must have strong asset base to generate increased revenue. In this perspective, RWSL has a NAV of Rs 4.66 as of 1Q20 and RWSL valued at Rs 6.99 per share if we determine the share value based NAV [1Q20 NAV @ 1.5x]. 


Therefore, I view current market price of RWSL @ Rs 7.40~7.50 seems like bit overpriced. But RWSL has the scope to move further up purely based on HNWI speculation which could be observed as little dangerous since RWSL earnings does not support if its being pushed further up.


Good Luck

Look perfect analysis earlier he mentioned.

Dilip likes this post

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
Fair value is 5 LKR for this share.


_________________




Teller said is said..

MaJa


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Yes.I would say 4-4.5

Teller likes this post

251RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) - Page 13 Empty Re: RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) Sun Nov 15, 2020 10:50 am

dayandacool

dayandacool
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
No diversification. Relaxing of import ban will kill the share. (Even though I don't predict this to happen in near future). RWSL should improve their production capabilities to gain more advantage from the import Ban.

geesura likes this post

252RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) - Page 13 Empty Re: RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) Sun Nov 15, 2020 11:36 am

vijay singh


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
listen, I don't like downgrade any worth of share. clearly, I highlighted via my earlier comment problem of capacity. RWSL is like a gold mining. unfortunately, they haven't capacity level. govt. gave 1 year period, show the performance. RWSL did not go with new expand project. I don't care NAV of RWSL. because of , this normally paid dividend. unfair RWSL market price compare with it's NAV. if you take NAV as benchmark , most of share overvalued. ex. CTC,LLUB,TJL,VLL,CTHR,ALUM etc.

LOLC Group never declare any dividend, therefore, maintain high NAV. BUT not worth shareholder. bcoze nothing give to shareholders. important thing is,

capacity level
demand of market
potentially performance

RWSL, capacity level problem unable to fulfill market demand and less revenue income leads to potential performance.

I , optimistic with RWSL current market price 7 level. but, no possibility to further price improvement due to limited capacity level.

dayandacool, Eranga87, geesura and SL-INVESTOR like this post

dayandacool

dayandacool
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@vijay singh wrote:listen, I don't like downgrade any worth of share. clearly, I highlighted via my earlier comment problem of capacity. RWSL is like a gold mining. unfortunately, they haven't capacity level. govt. gave 1 year period, show the performance. RWSL did not go with new expand project. I don't care NAV of RWSL. because of , this normally paid dividend. unfair RWSL market price compare with it's NAV. if you take NAV as benchmark , most of share overvalued. ex. CTC,LLUB,TJL,VLL,CTHR,ALUM etc.

LOLC Group never declare any dividend, therefore, maintain high NAV. BUT not worth shareholder. bcoze nothing give to shareholders. important thing is,

capacity level
demand of market
potentially performance

RWSL, capacity level problem unable to fulfill market demand and less revenue income leads to potential performance.

I , optimistic with RWSL current market price 7 level. but, no possibility to further price improvement due to limited capacity level.

I felt that your assessment is heavily based on a bad assumption.

You assume that the import restriction will remain forever. That's why I said they could play the advantage game until the import ban is in place. like you rightly pointed out, Government has given them the 1 year period, probably hinting the import ban will only remain in place for 1 year. I don't see RWSL making a worthy of an effort to increase their production capabilities to capture the market share and get the advantage of the Import ban.

So the bottom line is, the moment they lift the import ban, That will kill the share as there are no alternatives and diversification. Very Happy Very Happy

Eranga87 and SL-INVESTOR like this post

SL-INVESTOR

SL-INVESTOR
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@vijay, dayandacool, agreed. 2nd qtr, financial give hint regarding future. unless import ban activated, RWSL still not growth. govt. never ban import forever and RWSL still not attractive due to their limited capabilities. now, slightly overvalued.  RWSL stable @6-7 price range.

dayandacool and judecroos like this post

fireshelter

fireshelter
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Government not going to relax restriction for which goods easily  produce in sri lanka  Vehicle also ban for another one year

dayandacool, Rational Investor and geesura like this post

dayandacool

dayandacool
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@fireshelter wrote:Government not going to relax restriction for which goods easily  produce in sri lanka  Vehicle also ban for another one year

This will hold well only if High quality Salt is produced in high volumes to match the local demand. Presently this isn't the case.  Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes

RJ1010 likes this post

shakthi1974


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Well currently company is under foreign consultation to increase productivity and to bring down the cost. Along with their new Chemical plant to manufacture caustic soda, cholrine, soda ash and other chloro-alkali chemicals, RWSL will move to next phase of the business very soon.

These chemicals are the key raw materials for soap, paint, tannig, pulp,paper detergent industries and don't forget government want to save every dollar by restricting such import if possible. So government will give maximum boost to companies like RWSL.

dayandacool and Rational Investor like this post

258RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) - Page 13 Empty Re: RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) Sun Nov 15, 2020 10:38 pm

Rational Investor

Rational Investor
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@shakthi1974 wrote:Well currently company is under foreign consultation to increase productivity and to bring down the cost. Along with their new Chemical plant to manufacture caustic soda, cholrine, soda ash and other chloro-alkali chemicals, RWSL will move to next phase of the business very soon.

These chemicals are the key raw materials for soap, paint, tannig, pulp,paper detergent industries and don't forget government want to save every dollar by restricting such import if possible. So government will give maximum boost to companies like RWSL.

This will be a great information piece .Could you please share the article ? how did you get to know this ? Very Happy

dayandacool likes this post

shakthi1974


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Please check the link
http://www.wayambasalterns.lk/projects_detail.html

Rational Investor and geesura like this post

260RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) - Page 13 Empty Re: RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000) Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:17 am

Rational Investor

Rational Investor
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks Shakthi .It will largely help to improve GP margin which is currently 37%.

Shakthi-Any tentative time frame when they will operate with the new plant?

fireshelter

fireshelter
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
 Raigam Wayamba Salterns Strong BuyStrong Buy

Rational Investor likes this post

gosrilanka


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Friends, can we expect a price appreciation for RWSL? I have an quantity which I bought at 7.40 - 7.50 levels and stuck for some period. Really need your advise.
Thanks

Rational Investor

Rational Investor
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@gosrilanka wrote:Friends, can we expect a price appreciation for RWSL? I have an quantity which I bought at 7.40 - 7.50 levels and stuck for some period. Really need your advise.
Thanks

Watch out in coming week...

fireshelter

fireshelter
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
bom bom bom bom santa santa santa santa

fireshelter

fireshelter
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Market went up more than 300 points RWSL trading same price level

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