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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » AAIC - Analysis by CAL

AAIC - Analysis by CAL

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21AAIC - Analysis by CAL - Page 2 Empty Re: AAIC - Analysis by CAL Thu Jun 25, 2015 11:06 am

SUSPENS


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@bandara 123 wrote:AAIC will break LFIN before sub division. Just wait and see....

Paw..........It will not happened near future....

22AAIC - Analysis by CAL - Page 2 Empty Re: AAIC - Analysis by CAL Thu Jun 25, 2015 11:08 am

sharemarket


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@bandara 123 wrote:AAIC will break LFIN before sub division. Just wait and see....
After sub division this may be 30,It mean 30x10=300

23AAIC - Analysis by CAL - Page 2 Empty Re: AAIC - Analysis by CAL Fri Jun 26, 2015 1:38 am

kuma524


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Wait and see  coming days more interest..

24AAIC - Analysis by CAL - Page 2 Empty Re: AAIC - Analysis by CAL Mon Jun 29, 2015 6:05 am

bandara 123


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Will AAIC touch Rs230 before sub division?

Many predict that the price of AAIC after sub division will be around Rs25 - 30 levels. Hence achiving Rs230 before sub division can become a reality. Still we have three weeks more for the event and what many investors are doing is collecting maximum possible before sub division. Then after sub division most of  the shares will be with them and can demand for a premium price in the mkt.

25AAIC - Analysis by CAL - Page 2 Empty Re: AAIC - Analysis by CAL Mon Jun 29, 2015 8:29 am

Prince


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ADP wrote:Can you guys explain why you are predicting 25 after split. If you look at the last financial report
For the three months ended 31 March 2015

EPS                                                 = 250728000/37500000
                                                      = 6.68
Annualized                                        = 6.68*4
                                                      = 26.74

So,, fair value should be                      = 26.74*12
                                                      = 320.88

even at fair value the stock should be @ Rs 320 before the split and Rs 32 after the split. Where am I going wrong in my valuation??

Given the illiquid nature of this stock it can run way past this point.


For those new to this stock and the market pls don't take this as a promotion. With illiquid counters just as the rise is fast when it starts going the fall also can be equally fast and painful. Watch out how you play with this.


Very interesting Calculation.  mhhhh...

Appreciate if you can do the same valuation for LFIN .

Do you have any knowledge on NAV of AAIC and LFIN ????

26AAIC - Analysis by CAL - Page 2 Empty Re: AAIC - Analysis by CAL Tue Jun 30, 2015 6:14 am

bandara 123


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@ADP wrote:Can you guys explain why you are predicting 25 after split. If you look at the last financial report
For the three months ended 31 March 2015

EPS                                                 = 250728000/37500000
                                                      = 6.68
Annualized                                        = 6.68*4
                                                      = 26.74

So,, fair value should be                      = 26.74*12
                                                      = 320.88

even at fair value the stock should be @ Rs 320 before the split and Rs 32 after the split. Where am I going wrong in my valuation??

Given the illiquid nature of this stock it can run way past this point.


For those new to this stock and the market pls don't take this as a promotion. With illiquid counters just as the rise is fast when it starts going the fall also can be equally fast and painful. Watch out how you play with this.

Great calculation friend. Month end sales drag this down yesterday. Fron 2nd onwards this will start its journey untill 20th July.

27AAIC - Analysis by CAL - Page 2 Empty Re: AAIC - Analysis by CAL Tue Jun 30, 2015 9:57 am

ADP

ADP
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi guys thanks for the comments.

@Prince

If you look at Lfin in the same way I think it should be placed at @ Rs 366.24

For the three months ended 31 March 2015
LFIN EPS is taken from PAT which is   
Profit after Taxation                              = 628597000/69257142 
                                                         = 9.08
Annualized                                           = 9.08*4
                                                         =36.32
So,, fair value should be                         =36.32*12
                                                         =435.84
But I think their EPS should be based on Total Comprehensive Income for the Year, Net of Tax                                                    =528162000/69257142
                                                         =7.63*4
                                                         =30.52 
So,, fair value should be                         =366.24




Both AAIC and LFIN have relatively low shares in the public float.

28AAIC - Analysis by CAL - Page 2 Empty Re: AAIC - Analysis by CAL Tue Jun 30, 2015 1:51 pm

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ADP wrote:Hi guys thanks for the comments.

@Prince

If you look at Lfin in the same way I think it should be placed at @ Rs 366.24

For the three months ended 31 March 2015
LFIN EPS is taken from PAT which is   
Profit after Taxation                              = 628597000/69257142 
                                                         = 9.08
Annualized                                           = 9.08*4
                                                         =36.32
So,, fair value should be                         =36.32*12
                                                         =435.84
But I think their EPS should be based on Total Comprehensive Income for the Year, Net of Tax                                                    =528162000/69257142
                                                         =7.63*4
                                                         =30.52 
So,, fair value should be                         =366.24




Both AAIC and LFIN have relatively low shares in the public float.


Thanks for the hard working.   So you still recommend AAIC than LFIN ???

NAV values are as follows :  AAIC - Rs 58.13   LFIN - Rs 114.46

I recon AAIC is overpriced by the moment.   ( check PBV figure also)

29AAIC - Analysis by CAL - Page 2 Empty Re: AAIC - Analysis by CAL Tue Jun 30, 2015 7:38 pm

bandara 123


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Prince,

Low liquidity is the advantage to AAIC over LFIN. Only 400,00+ shares in the mkt.Others with top 20. What is happening these days is wrapping up everything around Rs200 levels. After the sub division these people can do the commanding since they only have majority of shares among them.

This will surely hit Rs220 - Rs225 levels before sub division to my estimate.

Just wait and see.

30AAIC - Analysis by CAL - Page 2 Empty Re: AAIC - Analysis by CAL Fri Jul 17, 2015 6:09 am

bandara 123


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Last two days for AAIC. Now the selling is almost drying up and trading at Rs205 levels.

Only very few investors who have faith, collected this share.After the announcement of the subdivision there were not much selling in this share. Not even 1.0mn shares traded for now if I'm not mistaken. That means after the subdivision very few are going to have AAIC and should trade at at primium price.

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