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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CFLB and what to expect

CFLB and what to expect

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1CFLB and what to expect Empty CFLB and what to expect Sat Feb 05, 2011 7:44 pm

$$$


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
CFLB EPS for the first 6 months is 8.82 .Since CFLb has a low free float of 36 Million shares any up surge in profit results in the EPS moving up considerably. When you look at Segment revenue it has doubled from 09 t0 10 with all their business segments doing extremely well . Out of the 11 segments only two are making losses which are Construction and Hotels (we all know how these two segments are set to boom). I to feel that that their anualised EPS Should settle between 30 and 35 . Even if you take the PE at 20 well the results will speak for themselves and the share should trade between 600 and 700 ...don't for get that they have a massive land bank in fort that has not been revalued in years so they are sitting on a massive Land bank. PER for growth sectors are usually higher as people are willing to pay more for such shares. The other factor is that only 5 million plus shares are actively traded as 85% share holding is with the top 20 share holders of the firm . If CFLB has to move forward another thing they might do is offer a rights issue or script issue to increase the Free float which at the moment really doesn't do justice to it's rising status. they will need to increase it sooner rather than later. an estimate is that
they will top one billion in profits in the last two quarters with the 3rd quarter expected to do around 700 million if their anualised profit tops 1.5billion then we are looking at an EPs of around 40 . All depends on this quarters results.

However the risks would be that like any company with low liquidity the share price can come down as much if there is any negativity with regard to the share i.e BFL when it drops it drops but it consolidates and rises.

The bull signals are there FOR CFLB and its main group companies....lets see when the latest quarter results are out.

2CFLB and what to expect Empty CFLB Sat Feb 05, 2011 10:54 pm

knowledge


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Reposting my reply from another forum here:

CFLB EPS for the two quarters ending 30/09/2010 was 8.82, however, one cannot simple double this to yield an annualized EPS of 17.64 since the Q4 of 2010 will show a considerable increase in profits. Just have a look at what exactly their holding structure is: https://servimg.com/view/16108723/3 (Kudos to Quibit for compiling this)

If we apply average profit increases that we have seen in recently released results, it is safe to assume that CFLB will yield an annualized EPS of at least 30-35, if not considerably more. Personally I expect them to announce an EPS of 20+ for the last quarter alone. Assuming the former (not the latter), a share price of 800-1000 is very realistic and I presume it will hit this (with a few ups and downs along the way) latest with their Q1 2011 results. This is not an advice, just my opinion. We will know for sure within a week or two when their results are out.

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