How does this media react? They will pounce on this animal to understand its "Success principles". And they will find some; perhaps the monkey eats more bananas than the others. Perhaps he sits in another corner of the cage. Or, maybe he swings headlong through the branches, or he takes long, reflective pauses while grooming. He must have some recipe for success. right ? How else could he perform so brilliantly? Spot -on for twenty weeks- and that from a simple monkey? Impossible!
The monkey story illustrates the outcome bias.. we tend to evaluate decisions based on the results than on the decision process. this fallacy is also knows as historian error.
Conclusion; Never judge a decision purely bu its results, especially when randomness or "external factors" play a role. A bad result does not automatically indicate a bad decision and vice versa. So rather than tearing your hair our about a wrong decision, or applauding yourself for one that may have only coincidentally led to success, remember why you chose what you did. Were your reasons rational and understandable? The you would do well to stick with that method, even if you didn't strike a lucky last time.
-Source: The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli