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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC

RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Empty RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:26 pm

ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I have searched the process of fuel purchases made by LIOC. As RPPA also wanted to know and committed to disclose important facts once the process is published.

LIOC purchase 50% of its stocks from their mother company and the rest is through CPC. The lead time is 1-2 months. The impact of drop in prices is accounts after this lead time.

2RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Empty Re: RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:03 am

RPPA


Expert
Expert
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:I have searched the process of fuel purchases made by LIOC. As RPPA also wanted to know and committed to disclose important facts once the process is published.

LIOC purchase 50% of its stocks from their mother company and the rest is through CPC. The lead time is 1-2 months. The impact of drop in prices is accounts after this lead time.


Firstly thank you very much ONTHEMONEY

Actually we don't know what prices we buy Crude oil. The Brent & US crude are not used by us.
I have a feeling we purchase crude oil based on a forward contract. If so the real benefit of price reduction will come later (may be after 3 months time). 

The above stated facts are not 100% guaranteed information as yet. That is why i have not posted until now. That is way i publish things.Because ONTHEMONEY also given some kind of an idea & based on that i have said the above.But please read the following too.

Though we all promote crude oil prices are low buy buy buy. I feel those comments are just posted without any sense. No one knows exactly what they are talking about & don't understand what exactly happens.That is why until then no one is able to give a proper answer except ONTHEMONEY. Shocked


Therefor think a bit. Very Happy

3RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Empty Re: RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:06 am

celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
So next quarter profit will be more than 3 per share for sure.

4RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Empty Re: RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:09 am

RPPA


Expert
Expert
@celtic tiger wrote:So next quarter profit will be more than 3 per share for sure.

If the facts i have posted are correct. That should be the case. Very Happy

5RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Empty Re: RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:59 am

ColomboInvestor


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
We have 12 months forward contract for crude and recently renewed for next year.it avoids crude price reduction benefit to the country.

6RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Empty Re: RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:59 am

Octopus

Octopus
Expert
Expert
@ColomboInvestor wrote:We have 12 months forward contract for crude and recently renewed for next year.it avoids crude price reduction benefit to the country.


wouldn't our president has got the powers to turn impossible to possible???
and also we have to keep in mind that Sri Lanka is the miracle of Asia lol!

7RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Empty Re: RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Fri Dec 05, 2014 7:09 am

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
I think downturn of world oil prices are not correctly reflected in IOC p&l.may be a considerable amount is transferred to Indian parent company under disguise of management fee or some other way.Normally Indian companies operation here are not genuine. If this business was handled by a reputed multinational company like caltex profits would have been 3 or 4 times better than this.

8RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Empty Re: RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Fri Dec 05, 2014 3:24 pm

Sarabulathwita

Sarabulathwita
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
another very good counter LIOC - I have 60,000 ++++. Not mine but my client lolz

9RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Empty Re: RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:09 pm

IO3+O


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Sarabulathwita wrote:another very good counter LIOC - I have 60,000 ++++. Not mine but my client lolz
සාරත් හරියටම අනුන්ගෙ ගීත තමන්ගෙ කරගෙන ගායන කරන සුපර් ස්ටාර්ස් කෙනෙක් වගේනෙ. Laughing

10RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Empty Re: RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Fri Dec 05, 2014 6:37 pm

aran

aran
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
cals research report based on the assumption that government will not cut the price of oil Very Happy Very Happy

http://wikisend.com/download/827766/Daily Stock Idea 04 12 2014 - LIOC- BUY.pdf

11RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Empty Re: RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:25 pm

shadow walker

shadow walker
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
SARA
"mata mage nowana, magema adarayak thibunaa"

12RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Empty Re: RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:42 pm

ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks aran for sharing above publication.

The question is whether the Government reduce the oil price? However in my view it will not be reduced since it will be highly election sensitive decision. As per the predictions of CAL it is also assumed to be kept as it is.

But this is Sri Lanka and wonder of Asia. So wonders could happen.

If we think rationally;

1. Company has grown its foot prints across the island
2. Increased sales and high predicted growth
3. Strong PE even under current market valuations
4. High potential to lift to rise in terms of NAV

Further Government has reduced import duty on vehicles and it has a significant impact on its revenue. Therefore cutting oil prices would also pressurize Government earnings.

I believe considering the above negatives and positives Rs  67/- very much justifiable.

These are purely facts analysed under the current circumstances and subject to change due to a change in regime or to a mere political influence.


Happy investments

13RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Empty Re: RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:41 pm

THILANGAF


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
This is really valuable topic

There are two oil prices only available world market
Brent (USD 69) and crude oil (USD 66)

14RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Empty Re: RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:47 pm

kumarweerarathne

kumarweerarathne
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Both petrol & Diesel reduced by 7/- from Midnight today...!

15RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Empty Re: RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:01 pm

THILANGAF


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks ONTHEMONEY for cal report. I have noticed one important fact on report.

LIOC has increased its lubricant market share up to 25%

This is remarkable achievement

16RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Empty Re: RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Sat Dec 06, 2014 8:26 am

NC

NC
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Govt. oil price cut is a white elephant/its a joke:

Monday LIOC could drop due to this news. However, many panic sellers're now out of the market.

From Global perspective:
Oil price slashed from 107.10 (06/2014) to 65.6 (Last closed price), which is a significant drop of around 40%.
Thus OPEC has officially decided to not to cut the oil production, saying market will determine the price itself.

The main factors beyond this drops;
- US now moving to alternative/renewable energies, and their consumption is reducing year by year.
- Slow down economy of China, and recession of EU still continued. Hence, the demand has reduced.
- US want to plunged Russian economy, by this price drop, as Russia is the 2nd largest oil exporter in the world.

Hence, there's a good possibility of global oil price drop moreover in next year.

Local Perspective:

This the financial outlook of CPC.
RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Cpc_bm10
The treasury is expecting a loss. But, CPC saying they recorded LKR 3 Bn profit for this year. However, their loss accumulation is still there and plus a huge debt for State Banks amonut exceeding LKR 400 Bn. Comparing with the the debts for banks LKR 400Bn, this year profit LKR 3bn is a piece of joke/shit. Obviously, its not even marginally sufficient. Hence, its a problem that Govt. how long they'll continue this price reduction Question

Price Drop:
Due to election, Govt reduced the price, unless we cannot even think of it, comparing above CPC facts.
Now Govt, reduced oil prices two times recently.
95 Petrol: 170 -5 -7= 158 (7% reduction)
Diesel (LSD): 145 -5 -7= 133 (8% reduction)

But world oil prices drop around 40%. But still less than 7%-9% reduced by Govt.

CPC forwards their contracts:
CPC forward their contracts exceeding another year with Singapore company, based on fixed average monthly price in Singapore market plus a considerable premium. So, its obvious that CPC/ Govt. would not take the direct benefit of price reduction. (http://www.sundaytimes.lk/141026/news/oil-prices-falling-but-cpc-signs-long-term-deal-124699.html)

LIOC perspective:
Revenue growth YoY - 11%
Annullazied profit this year- LKR 4.7bn
NAV- LKR 42/-
EPS (annualized)- LKR 8.8/-
P/E - 6.3
Valuation - LKR 91.2/-

Conclusion:
- Big potential in global oil price drop continuation  in next year.
- Global oil prices slashed 40% but, Govt, reduced oil retail prices by 7%-9%.
- CPC wouldn't take the direct benefit of oil price drop due to forward of contracts.
- CPC having LKR 400bn debt. This year profit Lkr 3bn. Price reduction is not afforadable for CPC. Hence, expecting oil price will increase again after the election.
- Solid earnings, revenue and profit growth of LIOC.

Collect LIOC at key support levels...
Very Happy
-NC

17RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Empty Re: RPPA - Open for discussion over LIOC Sat Dec 06, 2014 8:06 pm

ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Market has lost its grip due to temporary facts. However I am constantly collecting bargain counters at each bearish sentiments.

I believe that is the best way in these conditions where we all aware of the fact that the market has a clear upward direction.

Happy investments.

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