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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Forecasting 2015

Forecasting 2015

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1Forecasting 2015 Empty Forecasting 2015 Wed Dec 31, 2014 9:26 am

haran5555


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
My Predictions
1.Majority is anticipating a tight competition but it will be an easy win (58%:41%). Losing candidate would manage to secure 3 – 4 districts only.
2.All share price index will increase by at least 600 points within the 4 days after elections. It would be further increase by 1500 points within the year.
3.Few major listed companies would crash within the year bringing a spiral effect to the market movement.
4.SL just recovered after the recession from Q3-2014, an upward momentum will be observed for a minimum of 10 quarters going forward. SL will post 8.5% or more growth in 2015.
5.Investments, Real estate and Construction sectors will perform well immediately. Solid increase will be seen in FMCG, Durable and other consumer goods sectors, companies within these sectors will post at least 15% growth in 2015 ( volume based increase)
6.CBSL would keep the interest rate at the same level or could slash it downwards due to inflationary relieve from dropping oil prices.
7.Oil prices will level off and sustain at the prevailing level during the year, further drop not possible.
8.SL inflation (suppressed) will again gain momentum and reach 5-6% before end of 2015.
9.Exchange rate will depreciate by 3-5% within the year due to higher demand in import goods, weakened TOR and as a result foreign reserves will diminish as an attempt to control exchange rate.
10.SL tea will be further affected, since Russia also projected to be hit by 5% economic decline
11. SL attention would be more focused towards West than East, as a result European Union ban on Sri Lankan fishery products will be lifted by April

My Suggestions
1.Significant amount of structural reforms needs to done with high priority on industrial sector.
2.SL exports would have a challenging period yet need to focus on India and Pakistan in terms of export market
3.Improved attention should be given to boost several sectors (BPO, KPO, and Poultry) in N&E by creating more employment, this could help to attract investment from Diaspora / South Indian investors
4.Major reforms need to be done regarding the future of transportation industry in SL (Especially urban transport). Vehicle population is increasing drastically therefore expanding road is not sufficient, therefore major alternative need to be implemented immediately (Metro train / Canal)
6.Formulate strategies to import labour (immigrate) from other destinations, specially Bangladesh and Pakistan.


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