Few points based on my independent observations:
1) Old leftist parties do not have a considerable vote base. Many had already left since power structure still remains with old members. So only option & safe heaven is to hang with MR.
2) If corruptions in previous regime are proved before coming election, vote base of 5.7 lakhs supported to MR will diminish substantially.
3) Forming a strong coalition among SLFP, UNP & others will be a major factor vanishing the chance for MR to win.
4) Formation of such a coalition is a tedious task as individual do not want to sacrifice personal targets. Also, one opposes the incoming of another.
5) Consensus among two former presidents & the incumbent one to address the masses on one stage in order to protect the party is very unlikely considering the initial policy agreement of ruling parties.
6) JVP undying attempt on revealing frauds, malpractices & its deficiencies on investigations disappoint the voters who supported opposition. Further, their ability of simple expression & intelligent commenting on ongoing events turn people to think twice.
7) Defamed politicians hang around in supporting MR, will further move away MR chances of coming into power.
International support & concessions especially from western countries on trade, social & human rights activities given will drive the stability of ruling party.
9) 90% success rate of 100 days program that directly strike to the living standard of common people & improves social life will be crucial for ruling party’s progress.
Whatever goes on, uncertain situation prevail in political arena does not give a clue of its proper direction.