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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » LIOC turn around

LIOC turn around

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1LIOC turn around Empty LIOC turn around Tue Feb 24, 2015 10:14 am

kow2014


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
any1 who think there will be a turn around in the prices of LIOC?
is it worth to purchase @ this price?

2LIOC turn around Empty Re: LIOC turn around Tue Feb 24, 2015 10:58 am

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
I feel something unexplainable is happening within the company. According to the facts they should be earning good profits by now and there should be a QoQ growth as well. But confusingly they are showing a negative growth.Are the Indian owners siphoning money from the company at the expense of ordinary shareholders iss the question I have.

3LIOC turn around Empty Re: LIOC turn around Mon Mar 09, 2015 11:36 am

Invest_Wisely


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I read this post on a FB page an article from the nation.lk about LIOC... Hope this will help you guys...

https://www.facebook.com/InformedIntelligentInvesting

http://www.nation.lk/edition/business-tbl/item/38977-high-octane-fuel-usage-doubles-in-feb.html

Happy Trading

4LIOC turn around Empty Re: LIOC turn around Mon Mar 09, 2015 11:37 am

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Turn-around or Merry-Go-around.

5LIOC turn around Empty Re: LIOC turn around Mon Mar 09, 2015 12:44 pm

Senior Citizen

Senior Citizen
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:Turn-around or Merry-Go-around.

I agree 100%  Quibit Girl that it is a merry-go-round!

The increase in consumption volumes of diesel and petrol offsets the price decreases.
So there may be only a fraction of a difference in profitability.BasketballVery Happy

6LIOC turn around Empty Re: LIOC turn around Mon Mar 09, 2015 1:48 pm

Ernie Tissera


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
When the consumption is high the profitability should be increased. The problem is no one knows how they buy these products and on what condition. Last year also we tried to trace this without any success. As Equity Champ said they must be taking profits to India, without paying tax by Jack-up purchase prices on account of share holders.

7LIOC turn around Empty Re: LIOC turn around Mon Mar 09, 2015 2:43 pm

CARACALLA

CARACALLA
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I think better to wait ,,

8LIOC turn around Empty Re: LIOC turn around Mon Mar 09, 2015 7:36 pm

daminda


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
When oil price was just above the 100 dollars LIOC was making good profits in 2013/2014 financial year. When price of a barrel went down below 100 dollars, LIOC started to loose its profitability even before government reduced the prices and disappointed most of investors. I can't understand what sort of a calculation method is using these Indian fellows.

9LIOC turn around Empty Re: LIOC turn around Tue Mar 10, 2015 12:45 am

Invest_Wisely


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@ daminda

Average crude oil prices dropped to around 76.4 USD/bbl in 3QFY15 from 101.7 USD/bbl 2QFY15. LIOC accumulates 2-3 months worth of oil inventory and the changes in world oil prices are reflected in LIOC’s performance with a 2-3 months delay. Therefore, this reduction in import prices would improve gross profits in the fol-lowing quarter, 4QFY14. However, with the reduction in the selling price we will have to see the actual benefit in the coming quarters...

10LIOC turn around Empty Re: LIOC turn around Tue Mar 10, 2015 12:49 am

InvesThor


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
No its not worth it. It's still overvalued.

11LIOC turn around Empty Re: LIOC turn around Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:53 am

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:I feel something unexplainable is happening within the company. According to the facts they should be earning good profits by now and there should be a QoQ growth as well. But confusingly they are showing a negative growth.Are the Indian owners siphoning money from the company at the expense of ordinary shareholders iss the question I have.
The same idea bears in my mind.NEVER TRUST INDIANS.

12LIOC turn around Empty Re: LIOC turn around Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:30 am

Senior Citizen

Senior Citizen
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Invest_Wisely wrote:@ daminda

Average crude oil prices dropped to around 76.4 USD/bbl in 3QFY15 from 101.7 USD/bbl 2QFY15. LIOC accumulates 2-3 months worth of oil inventory and the changes in world oil prices are reflected in LIOC’s performance with a 2-3 months delay. Therefore, this reduction in import prices would improve gross profits in the fol-lowing quarter, 4QFY14.  However, with the reduction in the selling price we will have to see the actual benefit in the coming quarters...

Yes! The following key criteria affects the profitability of LIOC:

1) Local retail selling prices for diesel and petrol etc (Controlled Price)
2) World Oil Prices
3) foreign exchange rates
4) carrying stocks of petroleum products
5) distribution costs

The variable prices are worked out taking into conservation the above criteria and at any given time outsiders cannot see the net net scenario.

So agree that only time will tell us which way to go.

Meanwhile there is a general understanding that higher volumes will generate higher profits with lower world market prices for crude oil.

This share is not risky at all in the long run!
Basketball Basketball Very Happy

13LIOC turn around Empty Re: LIOC turn around Wed Mar 11, 2015 8:27 am

iadhrm


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Extract fron an article I red

HIGH OCTANE FUEL USAGE DOUBLES IN FEB
"Accordingly, the consumption of 95 Octane Petrol in the month of February has increased from 125,000 litres in January to 285,000 litres. The usage of high octane fuel has been encouraged by experts as they have higher activation energy requirements and therefore it is less likely that a given compression will cause uncontrolled ignition, otherwise known as autoignition or detonation. - See more at: http://www.nation.lk/edition/business-tbl/item/38977-high-octane-fuel-usage-doubles-in-feb.html#sthash.HO8XLoYU.dpuf"

I'm of course very optimistic on this share and keep collecting. IT'S BEING PICK UP. YESTERDAY TRADED AT 44.40 INCREASED BY RS. 2.40, going good

14LIOC turn around Empty Re: LIOC turn around Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:30 am

AAABoy

AAABoy
Moderator
Moderator
This is a good long term pick. I think these price fluctuations are happening not because of fundamental reasons. There should be a big hand behind this stock. Anyway my fair value at this stage is Rs.45/-. But due to market condition and upcoming election,New year season this can stable between Rs. 38-42 in coming month. Anyway is it worth share to have your portfolio. Pls refer few highlights I have calculated.
       
                   Last 4Q             2014             Growth

PAT              3,669.54         4,813.27         -23.76%
EPS                    6.89                9.04         -23.76%
PER                    6.19                7.5
NAVPS               36.04                32

These are few factors why I am interest on Lanka IOC

• Indian Oil Corporation the parent company of LIOC is the No. 01 Oil company in India andhas 49% Market share in India.  

• Currently LIOC holds 43.5% Market Share in SL.

• Attractive PE ratio of 6.19 (trailing) against 10.03X sector PER and PBV of 1.18 against 1.73 sector PBV.

• Recent price reduction for fuel would drive LIOC turnover heavily on 2015FY.

• SERVO the Lubricant brand of LIOC is already become the second best selling brand in SL.

• Strong Cash Flow figures.


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15LIOC turn around Empty Re: LIOC turn around Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:49 am

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Excellent fundamental analysis. Effect of the negative growth to the price could be determined with PEG Ratio. I guess LIOC is falling below 1
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t35293-peg-ratio-nails-down-value-stocks?highlight=peg+ratio

16LIOC turn around Empty Re: LIOC turn around Wed Mar 11, 2015 10:52 am

Senior Citizen

Senior Citizen
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:Excellent fundamental analysis. Effect of the negative growth to the price could be determined with PEG Ratio. I guess LIOC is falling below 1
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t35293-peg-ratio-nails-down-value-stocks?highlight=peg+ratio


No doubt good share to have!

Will perform from time to time.
Very Happy

17LIOC turn around Empty Re: LIOC turn around Thu Mar 12, 2015 11:15 am

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Crude Price Battered After Another Huge Inventory Increase -
http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2015/03/11/crude-price-battered-after-another-huge-inventory-increase/

18LIOC turn around Empty Re: LIOC turn around Fri Mar 13, 2015 1:49 pm

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Lot of sellers seems to have come up. This is a signal of detoriarating investor confidence.

19LIOC turn around Empty Re: LIOC turn around Sat Mar 14, 2015 10:29 am

piras

piras
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Modi's announcement will turn this around

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