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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Analysis - Aluminium Counters Future in CSE

Analysis - Aluminium Counters Future in CSE

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
The current upsurge in Aluminium counters stocks is primarily based on expectation for super results.

However we must ascertain and analyze before investing. So many people would have recommended to buy certain counters even at the PE more than 15 times. Such counters are purely based on speculative expected performance where we cannot imagine of greater results.

In my view ALUM and ALUF is overpriced. Hence don't burn your finger by getting caught.


However LALU (EPS - Rs 9/- for last 3 quarters) and PARQ (EPS - Rs 5.30 for last 3 quarters) have high chances of reaching Rs 100/- and Rs 80/- respectively. Hence we can expect superb results under these conditions. These counters trade below 10x PE.

Anyway LALU, PARQ, ALUM and ALUF are controlled and manged by Dhammika Perera which is a monopoly in the market. Hence I expect Aluminium industry would grow without any doubt based on increased price for wood products, decreased raw material prices, monopoly by above 4 companies in the market.

Hence I recommend to HOLD LALU and PARQ for medium term. COLLECT ALUM and ALUF at lower price levels.


Happy Investments

Maran


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
ALUF it will take time long term to go

geshan.weerakkody

geshan.weerakkody
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:The current upsurge in Aluminium counters stocks is primarily based on expectation for super results.

However we must ascertain and analyze before investing. So many people would have recommended to buy certain counters even at the PE more than 15 times. Such counters are purely based on speculative expected performance where we cannot imagine of greater results.

In my view ALUM and ALUF is overpriced. Hence don't burn your finger by getting caught.


However LALU (EPS - Rs 9/- for last 3 quarters) and PARQ (EPS - Rs 5.30 for last 3 quarters) have high chances of reaching Rs 100/- and Rs 80/- respectively. Hence we can expect superb results under these conditions. These counters trade below 10x PE.

Anyway LALU, PARQ, ALUM and ALUF are controlled and manged by Dhammika Perera which is a monopoly in the market. Hence I expect Aluminium industry would grow without any doubt based on increased price for wood products, decreased raw material prices, monopoly by above 4 companies in the market.

Hence I recommend to HOLD LALU and PARQ for medium term. COLLECT ALUM and ALUF at lower price levels.


Happy Investments

Spot on - very good analysis

k9


Expert
Expert
Great....wht abt dividend

Jana

Jana
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
JanaALUM show the good report this time because of Aluminium price on the market last few months.

Their Earning Rs 1.59 per share 

So Alum not bad at this level 


ALUM will pass 20/= easy

any how some speculation with this ALUM ... already start .. yesterday collected by some one over 2 Mn 

still they wait to collect more

shadow walker

shadow walker
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Maran wrote:ALUF it will take time long term to go
any thing could happen in long term.. but still ALUF is a loss making company

piras

piras
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
ALUM is far better than ALUF..

piras

piras
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
ALUM is the giant in its sector

shadow walker

shadow walker
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@piras wrote:ALUM is far better than ALUF..
PARQ is far better than ALUM

Jana

Jana
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
today advisor told me to buy ALUM but going down ??

piras

piras
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Brokers advising to buy ALUM,

Jana

Jana
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@piras wrote:Brokers advising to buy ALUM,
yes but still thinking , but I already have some which is grab @ 17.20

piras

piras
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Grab the opportunity..

shadow walker

shadow walker
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@piras wrote:Brokers advising to buy ALUM,
Broker... most of them are jokers

ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ONTHEMONEY wrote:The current upsurge in Aluminium counters stocks is primarily based on expectation for super results.

However we must ascertain and analyze before investing. So many people would have recommended to buy certain counters even at the PE more than 15 times. Such counters are purely based on speculative expected performance where we cannot imagine of greater results.

In my view ALUM and ALUF is overpriced. Hence don't burn your finger by getting caught.


However LALU (EPS - Rs 9/- for last 3 quarters) and PARQ (EPS - Rs 5.30 for last 3 quarters) have high chances of reaching Rs 100/- and Rs 80/- respectively. Hence we can expect superb results under these conditions. These counters trade below 10x PE.

Anyway LALU, PARQ, ALUM and ALUF are controlled and manged by Dhammika Perera which is a monopoly in the market. Hence I expect Aluminium industry would grow without any doubt based on increased price for wood products, decreased raw material prices, monopoly by above 4 companies in the market.

Hence I recommend to HOLD LALU and PARQ for medium term. COLLECT ALUM and ALUF at lower price levels.


Happy Investments

Hi Guys,

We can observed a mix note on LALU and PARQ in recent financial performance. Although LALU earned substantial earnings to justify its prices, last Quarter 2014/2015 performance is weak compared to other 3 companies listed ( PARQ, ALUM, ALUF ). All companies in the same group and being in the same industry has recorded a significant growth in revenue. Therefore we cannot expect a super revenue in 1Q 2015/2016 FY. Hence I recommend collect in parcels at below levels if anyone have bought over Rs 80/-.

Though ALUF and ALUM has recorded a healthy growth in sales; prices are little overpriced to recommend. Hence a risk is associated.

However PARQ has displayed impressive results for the last quarter 2014/2015 together with significant growth in QoQ growth. Major contribution via Aluminium business while tiles have also contributed to improve performance.

During 1Q 2014/2015 company has recorded on an EPS of Rs 0.77. However during last quarter it has increased up to Rs 3.17 with constant revenue growth. Hence it is obvious that PARQ would record Rs 3.50 for the 1Q 2015/2016 FY.

I expected PARQ price Rs 125+ and above in medium term. 

Why? 

Company is doing extremely well. Still heavy orders for aluminium products continue.

1. Impressive growth in performance in recent Quarters YoY.

2. Continuously reducing Banks liabilities ultimately increasing NAV, Annualized earnings would justify the above price and above.

3. Highest profits generated in Q4 during last 2 years. Hence we can expect better results. Company has made losses in history. However after the takeover by Lanka Tiles, company is performing well.

4. Strong fundamentals and drivers in the market involved in the list of stockholders. ( e.g Gulam Hussain)

5. High chances for a very attractive dividend.

Not all technically sound shares perform well. In my view a share to perform in the market it should have 2 key components; market drivers+fundamental backing. PARQ has it.

Considering all above facts PARQ displays signs to jump out of blocks. Considering the ill-liquid nature I recommend to hold as a Long term Investment.


Happy Investments

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