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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » For JKH Small Scale Investors

For JKH Small Scale Investors

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1For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty For JKH Small Scale Investors Sat May 30, 2015 2:07 am

investcsesl

investcsesl
Expert
Expert
For JKH Small Scale Investors


Below is the compression of current prices of  JKH.N000, JKH.W0022, JKH.W0023. 


My recommendation is to go for JKH.N000 at or below current prices and hold for minimum of 05 years as a solid investment. Of course you will get better returns during short term fluctuations. But to see a solid momentum in the share, we have to wait till both the warrants get exercised. 


JKH - N
Current Trading Price                        195.00
Number of Shares
7
Cost for 07 Shares                    1,365.00
Cost with Brokerage                    1,380.29
Dividend XD - 04 June 2015                          10.50
After Subdivision 
Number of allotted Shares
8
Total cost per 8 shares                    1,369.79
Cost per share                        171.22
Projected value at Sep 2015                        175.29
Expected Dividend for FY15/16                            3.50
Projected value at Sep 2016                        183.98
Note: interest = Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR)  =
7.12%
JKH - W22
Current Trading Price                          20.00
Number of Warrants
7
Cost for 07 Shares                        140.00
Cost with Brokerage                        141.57
After Subdivision 
Number of allotted Warrants
8
Exercise Price                        161.87
Payment for 8 Shares                    1,294.96
Total cost per 8 shares                    1,436.53
Cost per share                        179.57
Projected value at Sep 2015                        179.79
Loss after 04 months when buying JKH.W22 at present
-5%
(Loss considering 4 months FD)
-3%
JKH - W23
Current Trading Price                          37.00
Number of Warrants
7
Cost for 07 Shares                        259.00
Cost with Brokerage                        261.90
After Subdivision 
Number of allotted Warrants
8
Exercise Price                        170.62
Payment for 8 Shares                    1,364.96
Total cost per 8 shares                    1,626.86
Cost per share                        203.36
Projected value at Sep 2016                        206.07
Loss after 16 months when buying JKH.W23 at present
-16%
(Loss considering 16 months FD)
-12%

2For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sat May 30, 2015 2:15 am

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Excellent analysis. Warrants are risky and it could burn your  money fully as shown Thanks my friend.

3For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sat May 30, 2015 7:08 am

glad


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:Excellent analysis. Warrants are risky and it could burn your  money fully as shown Thanks my friend.
Thats nice. JKH W 22 has a minus value? JKH w 23 has time to play?

4For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sat May 30, 2015 7:25 am

sureshot

sureshot
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
investcsesl   
What was the projected value of JKH on 2014  and 2015 ?

is it trading accordingly to that value now ?

5For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sat May 30, 2015 8:17 am

investcsesl

investcsesl
Expert
Expert
@sureshot wrote:investcsesl   
What was the projected value of JKH on 2014  and 2015 ?

is it trading accordingly to that value now ?
Sureshot, Projected values after 04 months and 16 months are calculated considering the interest rate of AWFDR (i.e 7.12% as at 29 May 2015 according to the CBSL) for what we are paying now as the comparison to be done at the warrants maturity date. 
Investors should worry about what they are actually paying to buy a normal share.

6For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sat May 30, 2015 12:26 pm

investcsesl

investcsesl
Expert
Expert
This is what international investors are watching. That’s why we have to wait till end next year to see a solid uptrend of the share. If this continues value of Warrants will remain almost zero.


http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Forecasts?s=JKH.N0000:CSE


For JKH Small Scale Investors Share_11




Recommendation : Buy / Hold


 
For JKH Small Scale Investors Recomm10

7For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sat May 30, 2015 2:07 pm

Raj Rajaratnam

Raj Rajaratnam
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
investcesel.... Cool analysis... Much appreciated.

Why you have used September projected value? Exercising date is in November right?

Also Do you think JKH.N price going to come down or stay below 200 until then?

8For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sat May 30, 2015 5:13 pm

investcsesl

investcsesl
Expert
Expert
@Raj Rajaratnam wrote:investcesel.... Cool analysis... Much appreciated.

Why you have used September projected value? Exercising date is in November right?

Also Do you think JKH.N price going to come down or stay below 200 until then?

Thanks for the feedback. I will update the sheet with further two months projection up to November.


In reply to the second question, I really don’t have any information about who is the seller and what is the pending sell quantity of JKH.N000. But can be made below two assumptions.

  • a)    If the seller is having JKH.N and JKH.W22 sizable quantities, he will sell JKH.N at current levels and subscribe for JKH.W22 as selling JKH.W22 will not feasible at this situation. In this case JKH.N will not come below 185.
  • b)    If the seller having big quantity of JKH.N and he wants to quit from the market, then the situation is complicated. And it’s all depending on buyer’s negotiation. But there will be strong support still at 185 level


In both the cases sudden recovery in the share is possible up to 200 levels.

9For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sat May 30, 2015 5:26 pm

investcsesl

investcsesl
Expert
Expert
Dear Admin, please advise how can I edit the initial post as I have to do small changes in the projected figures.

10For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sat May 30, 2015 7:44 pm

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
There is a time limit on all posts. I will ask IT guys to increase the period.

11For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sat May 30, 2015 8:37 pm

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Its changed to 24 Hours. You should be able to change it now. Smile

12For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sun May 31, 2015 12:06 am

investcsesl

investcsesl
Expert
Expert
More traders are involved in not only JKH.W, but also other warrants as well due to the nature of “High Risk, High Return”.


We buy warrants hoping investors will push normal share so that we can have a good short term return from warrants. Therefore we don’t worry about the date of expiry and conversion rate as much. Even I have bought all types of warrants and burnt my fingers lot. That’s the reason now I’m not in to warrants.



Whoever received JKH warrants free of cost still can sit happily and make it convert at the end. That’s the real meaning of issuing warrants by a company to benefit the current share holders, not the traders who buy at higher prices and put themselves in to problems.

13For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sun May 31, 2015 1:40 am

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert
Thank you . investcsesl  for your analysis on JKH. I also believe when JKH hit 185-190, it should rebound to around Rs.200 again. It will be most probably on Monday. It is a very crucial week for JKH next week.  However there is some support for this Blue chip in the market. We will wait and see.
 
Those days I can remember when I asked somebody about NTB he said he bought around Rs.9 it and it was trading around Rs.15 at that time. Actually he thought warrants as stocks. I also have lost by investing in warrants. It is better to buy stocks than warrants. However those who can identify trend correctly will have trading opportunities in warrants

14For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sun May 31, 2015 12:54 pm

Raj Rajaratnam

Raj Rajaratnam
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
True enough. Most of the small investors (including me), don't know the warrant mechanism properly.
Even though I'm in finance filed I burnt my fingers with "GREG.W".

But still the greediness is not letting me to invest some in my favorite company's warrants....

15For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sun May 31, 2015 1:00 pm

Raj Rajaratnam

Raj Rajaratnam
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@investcsesl wrote:


In reply to the second question, I really don’t have any information about who is the seller and what is the pending sell quantity of JKH.N000. But can be made below two assumptions.

  • a)    If the seller is having JKH.N and JKH.W22 sizable quantities, he will sell JKH.N at current levels and subscribe for JKH.W22 as selling JKH.W22 will not feasible at this situation. In this case JKH.N will not come below 185.
  • b)    If the seller having big quantity of JKH.N and he wants to quit from the market, then the situation is complicated. And it’s all depending on buyer’s negotiation. But there will be strong support still at 185 level


In both the cases sudden recovery in the share is possible up to 200 levels.
You are correct. I have a gut feeling this sudden recovery may last to 220 level before the W22 exercising date.
If so it will be honeymoon period for warrant holders.
But yeah High risk.... High return

But its complicate as all depend on the political conditions and investor sentiments.....

16For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sun May 31, 2015 1:00 pm

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Raj Rajaratnam wrote:True enough. Most of the small investors (including me), don't know the warrant mechanism properly.
Even though I'm in finance filed I burnt my fingers with "GREG.W".

But still the greediness is not letting me to invest some in my favorite company's warrants....

Raj Rajaratnam is not a small investor of JKH. Smile



Last edited by Quibit on Sun May 31, 2015 1:17 pm; edited 1 time in total

17For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sun May 31, 2015 1:02 pm

investcsesl

investcsesl
Expert
Expert
Dear Raj (hope you will excuse me calling by your first name, when considering your age)

We all are in the same boat. only reason we lost huge amount of money is the "Greediness". I will put my next post with my experience how to minimize the greediness and convert ourselves to become small time investors.

18For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sun May 31, 2015 1:06 pm

Raj Rajaratnam

Raj Rajaratnam
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Quitbuit I learnt my lessons..... I'm in my good conduct time....
Don't corrupt me again... :no:

19For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sun May 31, 2015 1:09 pm

Raj Rajaratnam

Raj Rajaratnam
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@investcsesl wrote:Dear Raj (hope you will excuse me calling by your first name, when considering your age)

We all are in the same boat. only reason we lost huge amount of money is the "Greediness". I will put my next post with my experience how to minimize the greediness and convert ourselves to become small time investors.

No problem investcsesl,

Age is not barrier.... I'm still young mentally....
Keep going with your posts....
I'm enjoying this forum......

20For JKH Small Scale Investors Empty Re: For JKH Small Scale Investors Sun May 31, 2015 1:45 pm

investcsesl

investcsesl
Expert
Expert
@Raj Rajaratnam wrote:
You are correct. I have a gut feeling this sudden recovery may last to 220 level before the W22 exercising date.
If so it will be honeymoon period for warrant holders.
But yeah High risk.... High return

But its complicate as all depend on the political conditions and investor sentiments.....

It's highly unlikely JKH.N to bounce back to 220 levels during the exercising date of W22. But given the full respect of your gut feeling I have done a below calculation. Still I feel, the best option is to go with normal share and get a very decent profit of 28% within 06 months, rather than aiming 200% profit from W22 and ended up loosing 100% of investment.

JKH - N
Current Trading Price                        195.00
Number of Shares7
Cost for 07 Shares                    1,365.00
Cost with Brokerage                    1,380.29
Dividend XD - 04 June 2015                          10.50
After Subdivision 
Number of allotted Shares8
Total cost per 8 shares                    1,369.79
Cost per share                        171.22
Projected value at Nov 2015                        177.32
Expected Dividend for FY16                            3.50
Projected value at Nov 2016                        186.01
Expected Trading value at Nov 2015                        220.00
Profit for six months28%
Note: interest = Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR)  = 7.12%
JKH - W22
Current Trading Price                          20.00
Number of Warrants7
Cost for 07 Shares                        140.00
Cost with Brokerage                        141.57
After Subdivision 
Number of allotted Warrants8
Exercise Price                        161.87
Payment for 8 Shares                    1,294.96
Total cost per 8 shares                    1,436.53
Cost per share                        179.57
Projected value at Nov 2015                        179.99
Expected Trading value at Nov 2015 assuming JKH.N@220                          58.13
Profit for six months191%

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