How MR could become PM?

hariesha · 1 How MR could become PM? Thu Jul 16, 2015 10:55 pm

hariesha

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How many seats he has to secure in the elections for him to become PM?

For all others it is 113.

But does 113 is enough for MR?

All other parties contesting elections will not support him. So he has to secure 113 within UPFA.

But all UPFA MPs will not support him. There will be at least 20 MPs in UPFA who will directly oppose MR as PM. More will abandon him after results.

MR's magical number is not 113, but 133.

So he should steer UPFA to secure at least 133 seats. A daunting and impossible task under present situation.

Teller · 2 Re: How MR could become PM? Thu Jul 16, 2015 11:14 pm

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Tthats true. No chance for him.

stockback · 3 Re: How MR could become PM? Thu Jul 16, 2015 11:25 pm

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1994 (PA) - 105 seats
2004 (PA + JVP) 105 seats

do you think this Mahinda can get 85 seats now?

already he finished his political career (08 Jan 2015)

My numbers are

(UNP Yahapalanaya ) 119
JVP 15
TNA 16
DNA 1

rest for Mahinda

hariesha · 4 Re: How MR could become PM? Thu Jul 16, 2015 11:27 pm

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If everything goes well, UPFA will fetch about 80 seats, leaving MR less than 60 members to his fold.

But once those 60 realize MR has no chance to become PM, no one will back him to become leader of the opposition.

Last time Astrologers destroyed him. This time political opportunists like Wimal,Vasu and Dinesh destroyed him.

Loosing this election is loosing of Glamour, Respect as former president and lot of other benefits to him for ever.

But the opportunists will achieve their target of becoming MPs, which they couldn't have achieved otherwise.

Good lessons for life!

Vptilak · 5 Re: How MR could become PM? Tue Jul 21, 2015 8:26 am

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hariesha wrote:If everything goes well, UPFA will fetch about 80 seats, leaving MR less than 60 members to his fold.

But once those 60 realize MR has no chance to become PM, no one will back him to become leader of the opposition.

Last time Astrologers destroyed him. This time political opportunists like Wimal,Vasu and Dinesh destroyed him.

Loosing this election is loosing of Glamour, Respect as former president and lot of other benefits to him for ever.

But the opportunists will achieve their target of becoming MPs, which they couldn't have achieved otherwise.

Good lessons for life!

My calculations(Including National list) are; UPFA 118,UNP 78, JVP 8, TNA 14, DNA 1, SLMC 3, Other muslim parties 1, Others 2

samaritan · 6 Re: How MR could become PM? Tue Jul 21, 2015 10:08 am

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Vptilak wrote:

hariesha wrote:If everything goes well, UPFA will fetch about 80 seats, leaving MR less than 60 members to his fold.

But once those 60 realize MR has no chance to become PM, no one will back him to become leader of the opposition.

Last time Astrologers destroyed him. This time political opportunists like Wimal,Vasu and Dinesh destroyed him.

Loosing this election is loosing of Glamour, Respect as former president and lot of other benefits to him for ever.

But the opportunists will achieve their target of becoming MPs, which they couldn't have achieved otherwise.

Good lessons for life!

My calculations(Including National list) are; UPFA 118,UNP 78, JVP 8, TNA 14, DNA 1, SLMC 3, Other muslim parties 1, Others 2

VPTILAK'S FORECAST LOOKS REALISTIC.

nalban · 7 Re: How MR could become PM? Tue Jul 21, 2015 11:07 am

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Statistics don't lie.

MR had 58, I have not met anyone who voted MR in Jan now voting UNP or JVP. He may loose a bit in North and East this time. But likely to get more floating votes .

But I have met a lot of people who vote MS now regretting their decision and voting MR now.

That means MR is poised to get over 5o Lakhs.

Where as MS 62 is going to get divided , TNA 12, JVP-5, SLMC -2 ....so on

Therefore UNP will go below 40 Lakhs .

But seat allocation is quite different in a General election. So there is a good chance MR will take more than 110.
Any counter arguments with logic? No mud please.

lux2014 · 8 Re: How MR could become PM? Tue Jul 21, 2015 11:47 am

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nalban wrote:Statistics don't lie.

MR had 58, I have not met anyone who voted MR in Jan now voting UNP or JVP. He may loose a bit in North and East this time. But likely to get more floating votes .

But I have met a lot of people who vote MS now regretting their decision and voting MR now.

That means MR is poised to get over 5o Lakhs.

Where as MS 62 is going to get divided , TNA 12, JVP-5, SLMC -2 ....so on

Therefore UNP will go below 40 Lakhs .

But seat allocation is quite different in a General election. So there is a good chance MR will take more than 110.
Any counter arguments with logic? No mud please.

I have met some people who, having voted for MR last time, now say they were fooled by MR and would not vote for him again. But most of them being SLFP or UPFA supporters, will anyway vote for a PA candidate of their choice this time. But the difference is that they will NOT vote for any of MR acolytes (drug, ethanol, crime champions). So, even if PA gets more seats that does not automatically translate into pro MR MPs in the Parliament.

Likewise, those who voted for MY3 last time but are not happy now, will NEVER vote for MR even if they are quite vocal about their disappointment or unhappiness with MY3. That is simply because they already knew what MR was up to.

All in all, I feel UNP and a part of anti-MR faction of UPFA will form a national government with blessings from MY3. Of course, MR can be a back bencher, if he so wishes.

Ryan Hudson · 9 Re: How MR could become PM? Tue Jul 21, 2015 12:53 pm

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MR will lead with 125 seats and ranil can celebrate his 31st defeat (Ranil was defeated in 2014 pres election as well by my3, ie ranil didnt contest because of fear psychosis, and ranil will retire from politics on 19th August)

GameUP1030 · 10 Re: How MR could become PM? Tue Jul 21, 2015 1:10 pm

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stockback wrote:1994 (PA) - 105 seats
2004 (PA + JVP) 105 seats

do you think this Mahinda can get 85 seats now?

already he finished his political career (08 Jan 2015)

My numbers are

(UNP Yahapalanaya ) 119
JVP 15
TNA 16
DNA 1

rest for Mahinda

This is quiet possible with current trends in politics, sometime JVP may get more than if the public really consider their power of voting behavior. don't get politically angry anyone with me because this is how i feel and i think we shouldn't get upset among us because of the politicians who have never met or seen none of us, and we are friends of this forum. Very Happy

TIRAN712 · 11 Re: How MR could become PM? Tue Jul 21, 2015 1:39 pm

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MR TA AKAMATI KAWDA KIYALA DANNAM PAHADILIY, UNP LOKU KARAN INNA SET EKA SINHALA BUDDHIST NEMEI , PULUWANNAM KIYAPALLA ,, Evil or Very Mad

YAKO APITH RATAWAL 40 KA WITARA GIHIN TIYANAWA ME WAGE SUNDARA NIDAHAS RATAK NA ,UNP CHANDE DILA RATA PAWALA DENNA EPA

VALUEPICK · 12 Re: How MR could become PM? Tue Jul 21, 2015 1:42 pm

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Very interesting discussion about political world. We have to analyse from 1970 to 2015 to get some interesting idea about political world. Despite so many political problems there had been bull markets in Sri-Lanka even during bomb blasts just like in Pakistan. Remember friends and relatives in the same family also are working for different political parties in Sri-Lanka. So their management style will be same. We are going to see permanent government very soon and once again sidelined government intuitional investors should become active in the market after general election to give more boost to the number one attractive frontier market in Asia.

Have a peaceful election and your dream come true by winning your favourite party! Hope my estimation on results also will come true.

lux2014 · 13 Re: How MR could become PM? Tue Jul 21, 2015 6:16 pm

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TIRAN712 wrote:MR TA AKAMATI KAWDA KIYALA DANNAM PAHADILIY, UNP LOKU KARAN INNA SET EKA SINHALA BUDDHIST NEMEI , PULUWANNAM KIYAPALLA ,, YAKO APITH RATAWAL 40 KA WITARA GIHIN TIYANAWA ME WAGE SUNDARA NIDAHAS RATAK NA ,UNP CHANDE DILA RATA PAWALA DENNA EPA

Mata hithaaganna puluwan obathuma gihilla thiyena ratawal 40:-

Swaziland
Libya
Moritania
Nigeria
Ethiopia
Zimbabwe
.......
.......
Very Happy

TIRAN712 · 14 Re: How MR could become PM? Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:22 pm

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Ha HA Ha very funny,,,as a seaman i travel some of you mention to ,, but once unp run this country for 5 years same thing will happen ,,,all above u mention u can see in one country go to india,,,, lol!

nis2010 · 15 Re: How MR could become PM? Tue Jul 21, 2015 8:15 pm

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TIRAN712 wrote:Ha HA Ha very funny,,,as a seaman i travel some of you mention to ,, but once unp run this country for 5 years same thing will happen ,,,all above u mention u can see in one country go to india,,,,

there was another leader same like we had in LK. read this article .

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2014/03/revealing-tunisia-corruption-under-ben-ali-201432785825560542.html