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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » LFIN or LHCL - Short term gain more?!!

LFIN or LHCL - Short term gain more?!!

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1LFIN or LHCL - Short term gain more?!! Empty LFIN or LHCL - Short term gain more?!! Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:07 pm

_livestrong_


Stock Trader
Which share will have the highest gain within 1 months time?

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
If LFIN reach 160, then the return will be
35/160 = 21%

If LHCL reach 70/-, the return will be
14/56*100 = 25%

LFIN almost had some appreciations in recent rally.
You can buy 2.5 shares of LHCL which is equal 1 LFIN

In this case you can earn multiple profit as you invested more shares. Pls note less brokerage will drive a lower cost.




_________________




Teller said is said..

SUSPENS

SUSPENS
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
LHCL still we are in the start of the journey...

So most of pp like to sell and exit in little profit...

But when the middle of the journey no selling at all..

Like LFIN..........so wait and see this hospital really....First time in the 2015

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
You are correct mr.suspens. some people looks exit with a minimum margin because they dont have any trust on their holdings while  people are changing their value shares to SCRAPS. in very very short time LHCL will pass 70/-. once it reaches to 60 then it will speed up the game. Intelligence players never show much demand in order books. They are accumilating shares in very peacefully.  Once collection is finished it will bullish nicely.



Last edited by Teller on Tue Aug 11, 2015 7:11 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : typing error)

kumarweerarathne

kumarweerarathne
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Im also so hopeful on these two counters exept poultry. LFIN again showing its further uptrend towards 150 mark today. But LHCL is still on its start mark can expect strong run. Very Happy

ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi Guys,

I need a clarification on LHCL valuation? 

The groups EPS for the six months ending 30.06.2015 is 1.66 times. (annualized - Rs 3.32). How can we value @ Rs 70/- and under what PE? Yes it is a growing counter and the leading hospital.

I my view we have to consider a market accepted PE to minimize the risk.(Generally @ 10 or 15 times) However certain counters trade at higher prices such as COMB,JKH,etc.

The Group Profit Before Tax (PBT) of Lanka Hospitals Corporation stood at Rs.428 million for the first six months of the financial year 2015. This was an 81 percent increase compared to Rs. 236 million recorded in the corresponding period of the financial year 2014.  

The last 5 years dividends payouts of LHCL are as follows;


SecurityIDNameTypeDescriptionProportionDividend
(Rs)
QuarterAnnounced
date
Price prior to
Anno.dt
Current/EX
Price
Price
Change
EX DatePayment

LHCLN0000Lanka HospitalsDDividend0.50Final18-May-201229.2029.500.3002-Jul-201210-Jul
LHCLN0000Lanka HospitalsDDividend0.50Final21-May-201343.6042.00-1.6030-May-201310-Jun
LHCLN0000Lanka HospitalsDDividend1.50Interim02-Dec-201341.6042.701.1010-Dec-201320-Dec
LHCLN0000Lanka HospitalsDDividend0.50Interim02-Dec-201449.9049.00-0.9010-Dec-201418-Dec
LHCLN0000Lanka HospitalsDDividend0.50Final08-Jun-201541.9044.502.6017-Jun-2015


Pls share your ideas!!!

7LFIN or LHCL - Short term gain more?!! Empty Re: LFIN or LHCL - Short term gain more?!! Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:21 pm

ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi Guys,

Compared to LHCL,LFIN please asses the following;

SecurityIDNameTypeDescriptionProportionDividend
(Rs)
QuarterAnnounced
date
Price prior to
Anno.dt
Current/EX
Price
Price
Change
EX DatePayment
date
 
LFINN0000LB FinanceD[b][b]Dividend[/b][/b]1.00Interim21-Mar-200683.0085.002.0030-Mar-200612-Apr
LFINN0000LB FinanceB[b][b]Bonus[/b][/b][b][b]2 for 5[/b][/b]  15-Aug-200679.7552.25-27.5009-Oct-2006 
LFINN0000LB FinanceR[b][b]Rights[/b][/b][b][b]1 for 2 @17.00[/b][/b]  19-Sep-200741.5025.00-16.5028-Nov-2007 
LFINN0000LB FinanceD[b][b]Dividend[/b][/b]2.251st & Final02-Jun-200822.7519.25-3.5029-Jul-200804-Aug
LFINN0000LB FinanceR[b][b]Rights[/b][/b][b][b]1 for 7 @17.00[/b][/b]  02-Jun-200822.7519.25-3.5029-Jul-2008 
LFINN0000LB FinanceD[b][b]Dividend[/b][/b]3.001st & Final26-May-200922.5036.0013.5001-Jul-200910-Jul
LFINN0000LB FinanceD[b][b]Dividend[/b][/b]5.00Interim29-Apr-201094.2588.00-6.2507-May-201018-May
LFINN0000LB FinanceB[b][b]Bonus[/b][/b][b][b]1 for 1[/b][/b]  12-Jan-2011309.40147.10-162.3007-Mar-2011 View
LFINN0000LB FinanceD[b][b]Dividend[/b][/b]3.501st & Final08-Jun-2011185.00175.80-9.2001-Jul-201107-Jul
LFINN0000LB FinanceD[b][b]Dividend[/b][/b]5.001st & Final08-Jun-2012100.00121.2021.2002-Jul-201209-Jul
LFINN0000LB FinanceD[b][b]Dividend[/b][/b]6.501st & Final03-Jun-2013129.90123.00-6.9001-Jul-201309-Jul
LFINN0000LB FinanceD[b][b]Dividend[/b][/b]6.501st & Final02-Jun-2014116.00123.807.8001-Jul-201409-Jul
LFINN0000LB FinanceD[b][b]Dividend[/b][/b]10.001st & Final22-May-2015202.00224.6022.6002-Jul-201510-Jul
LFINN0000LB FinanceS[b][b]Sub-Division[/b][/b][b][b]1 INTO 2[/b][/b]  20-May-2015185.90226.6040.7009-Jul-2015 
The company has gradually increased its Dividend payout ratio during the history and EPS is Rs 5.6 for 1Q 2015.(Annualized - Rs 22.4). Hence the PE is 6.0 times.

Therefore if we calculate the expected market value of LFIN @ following PE levels;

Market PE @ 8         = Rs 179.2
Market PE @10       = Rs 224.0
Sector PE @ 12.93  = Rs 289.63

Therefore in the worse case any investor would be in the safe side since it is trading at a PE of 6 times. 

Further LFIN maintaining a diversified portfolio of business. It contains Leasing/hire purchase, Islamic Financing, Mortgage Loans, Factoring, Micro Finance, Pawning, Margin Trading, etc. Also recently company has introduced an innovative product to capture an untapped market of informal money lenders @ a lower rate. I guess this would bombard the market @ lower rate compared to informal lenders with aggressive marketing strategies of LFIN coupled with riders recoveries at business points. This is first time a bank or a finance company approached this market.

Company has made losses with Gold pawning business during 2012. However company now have diversified its portfolio to minimize the risk. Currently LFIN concentrates only 8%-10% on pawning business out of their total advances portfolio. Hence diminishing Gold rate in global market is less impact-full compared to 2012. Further global gold rates are at the rock /bottom since 1970. 

Further LFIN main business is leasing. During 2014, the imports of electric hybrid vehicles to Sri Lanka accelerated by 175% in terms of volume and 223% in terms of value. Reduction of duties for hybrid electric vehicles during 2014 was the reason for this boom. Japan is the major import source ofhybrid electric motor cars to Sri Lanka accounting for more than 95% of the market followed by Germany.


Hybrid Vehicles imports during 2010-2014(Source - Chamber of Commerce)

 
Year Volume(No)  Value(Rs/Mn) 
2010            438.00                                    980.00
2011        5,927.00          14,440.00
2012        1,943.00                                 5,439.00
2013        9,707.00          20,430.00
201426,729.00          66,004.00
This indicates the potential of the business and the trends for demand for hybrid vehicles has continues in 2015 as well.

Therefore considering the above facts I would like to recommend LFIN as a highly undervalue counter with high potential. Many investment funds, corporate investors eye as a medium/Long term investment due to its earnings potential and Dividend Yield . 

In my purview LFIN would be the next SDB....!

Happy Investments

8LFIN or LHCL - Short term gain more?!! Empty Re: LFIN or LHCL - Short term gain more?!! Tue Aug 11, 2015 11:30 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
@Onthemoney,Banking and finance companies are trading attractive sector PERs.finance sector PER stands 10-15.and mostly sector PER decides by market leaders in its indistry. As an example NEST can do a big infuence to decide the sector PER for food compsnies. As example Food companies sector per around 25xhotel sector 45x in hospitals 20-22.5 x. So sector PERs are changing sector to sector. We cant compare finance companies with hotels. Bank and finance companies are high risk counters,highest earnings very less assets base so attractive sector PERs are there. Hospitals and hotels have more assets as well as less earnings but higher good will and existance. So those are considered as less risk businesses. Attractive finance companies can collapse any time but other sectors can be considered as more stable. Typically world hospitals are trading above 35 x sector PERs. That may be the reason one of indian private hospitals baught LHCL above 100 rupees in years ago.


_________________




Teller said is said..

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:@Onthemoney,Banking and finance companies are trading attractive sector  PERs.finance sector PER stands 10-15.and  mostly sector PER decides by market leaders in its indistry. As an example NEST can do a big infuence to decide the sector PER for food compsnies.  As example Food companies  sector per around 25xhotel sector 45x in hospitals 20-22.5 x.  So sector PERs are changing sector to sector. We cant compare finance companies with hotels.  Bank and finance companies are high risk counters,highest earnings very less assets base  so attractive sector PERs are there. Hospitals and hotels have more assets as well as less earnings but higher good will and existance. So those are considered as less risk businesses. Attractive finance companies can collapse any time but other sectors can be considered as more stable. Typically world hospitals are trading above 35 x sector PERs.  That may be the reason one of indian private hospitals baught LHCL above 100 rupees in years ago.
Teller .They (Indians) bought at Rs 60.

10LFIN or LHCL - Short term gain more?!! Empty Re: LFIN or LHCL - Short term gain more?!! Wed Aug 12, 2015 7:38 am

ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks.

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