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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » General Election 2015 - My analysis result

General Election 2015 - My analysis result

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piyalpy


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
General Election 2015 - My analysis result

This is purely mathematical analysis based on results of recently concluded 2 elections (Provincial Council and Presidential).
Assumptions I Made:
     - JVP will get more votes and will be the third political force
     - Main parties will keep their voting base intact.
Expected error correction ratio ± 5 seats for major parties
                                          ± 3 seats for other parties

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VEDiDGz0vifTomJ361_FqxU-e6vz-VEjk5W-iAxE57E/edit?usp=sharing

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
Totally misleading. Totally wrong predictions.


_________________




Teller said is said..

Jiggysaurus

Jiggysaurus
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Ayyo then better sell and get out of the CSE.

Sri Lanka Election Day Guide: Sell If Rajapaksa’s Party Wins
Anusha Ondaatjie
August 14, 2015 — 12:00 AM IST
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-13/sri-lanka-election-day-guide-sell-if-rajapaksa-s-party-wins

For financial investors, the bet on Sri Lanka’s election is simple: Sell if former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s party wins.

The parliamentary vote on Aug. 17 will be the first test at the polls since President Maithripala Sirisena defeated Rajapaksa in January to end his 10-year rule. Now Sirisena needs his allies to win control of parliament to ensure stability on the island nation best known for its beach resorts.

Rajapaksa, 69, is doing everything he can to spoil the party. He wants to make a comeback and replace Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, a scenario that may bring more strife to a nation that ended a bloody civil war in 2009.

A win for the current ruling coalition “will be taken positively by investors as that will mean continuance of the existing policies,” said Saurav Anand, South Asia economist at Standard Chartered Plc. A majority for Rajapaksa’s party, however, may lead to a “further period of policy uncertainty.”

Political stability and soaring economic growth under Rajapaksa put Sri Lanka on the radar screen of global investors. The island’s benchmark stock index is among the top 10 best performers globally over the past decade when measured in total U.S. dollar returns.

But resentment built among the public over moves seen to consolidate Rajapaksa’s power, enrich his family and shift the country under China’s orbit. The frustration boiled over last year, when Sirisena split with Rajapaksa and went on to defeat him in a presidential vote.
Foreigners Sell

Upon taking power, Sirisena pledged to rollback Rajapaksa’s measures to enhance the president’s power. He reinstalled a two-term limit and diluted the head of state’s influence over the judiciary, military and bureaucracy. He also implemented a more balanced foreign policy.

Sirisena failed, however, to pass a constitutional amendment that would overhaul the voting system to make it more representative, prompting him to dissolve parliament in June almost a year before its term expired.

The uncertainty since Sirisena’s win has affected perceptions of Sri Lanka. Overseas investors have sold a net $5.3 million of Colombo-listed shares in the year to Aug. 12, compared with net foreign purchases of $159 million in 2014 and $165 million the previous year.

The split between Sirisena and Rajapaksa divided their Sri Lanka Freedom Party, which leads an alliance that controlled about two-thirds of the 225-member parliament. Some Sirisena allies jumped to Wickremesinghe’s United National Party.
Stock Gains

On Monday, the vote will largely be split between the Wickremesinghe-led bloc and a coalition headed by Rajapaksa. While few opinion polls are reliable, an island-wide survey by the Colombo-based Centre for Policy Alternatives this month showed about 40 percent backing Wickremesinghe for prime minister, with 28 percent supporting Rajapaksa.

Rajapaksa’s camp rejects assertions that a victory for him would lead to instability. The former president said last month that he wants to help boost growth and restart projects suspended by the Sirisena administration, including a Chinese-funded $1.4 billion port city, the largest foreign funded project on record.

“All people of this country can work with Mahinda Rajapaksa, including President Sirisena,” Manusha Nanayakkara, a spokesman for Rajapaksa, said by phone. “They have worked together for nearly 30 years”

Expectations of a win for the incumbent parties have helped boost the Colombo All-Share Index. It’s risen 10 percent since hitting a 2015 low in March, and is up 2 percent this year. The rupee has depreciated about 2 percent in the year to 134 to the dollar.

A surprise win for Rajapaksa’s coalition, on the other hand, would set up a direct clash with Sirisena. The president has said that he won’t appoint his top foe as prime minister.

“The office would likely go to a different figure while Rajapaksa would hold most of the power, setting up continual clashes with Sirisena,” said Sasha Riser-Kositsky, Asia Associate at Eurasia Group. “Sri Lanka would face years of highly unstable governance.”

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Predictions will not always be accurate. 

My view is ELEPHANT will be slightly in ahead of BEATLE but has to make an effort to form a united government.

Popularity of JVP booms capturing more seats compensating the past sacrifice they made.

This is an impartial view which may be inaccurate.

syogaganesh


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Dear piyalpy


You must be living in Uganda in Coma Stage, wake up. One of the hilarious analysis I have ever seen. MR cannot win this election in any means.

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:Totally misleading. Totally wrong predictions.


 It was not a prediction I suppose , a  mathematical calculation based on previous records. At least it has a some sort of base whether the results are right or wrong.


If you say its wrong ?? whats your base of refusing it ???

nis2010


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
completely horas brain washed prediction.

Beta1

Beta1
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:Totally misleading. Totally wrong predictions.
yes.

sureshot

sureshot
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
affraid  

Colombo..... No chance for Beetle Leaf this time.

May be an error on the mathematical Formula applied.

piyalpy


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Smile It is totally mathematical analysis. If you have better analysis, tell me where I went wrong. Otherwise, your opinion/analysis/thoughts is invalid. That can't be a professional analysis but an analysis based on one's fantasies.

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@piyalpy wrote:Smile It is totally mathematical analysis. If you have better analysis, tell me where I went wrong. Otherwise, your opinion/analysis/thoughts is invalid. That can't be a professional analysis but an analysis based on one's fantasies.


@piyalpy


I am totally with your report. It might be a win for either of party that doesnt matter in this case. I am supporting you because you are talking something based on something. You might be correct might be wrong but its stats you are talking of. As you said if you are wrong some one has to bring a better argument with a sound base , to deny you.

Emotions are not predictions.

nalban


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Good work bro. UPFA's case is very strong in statistically.
About the stock market we have been suffering a lot last six months. Now only we reached pre presidential poll levels thanks  to the anticipation of MR win and Nalaka Godahewa return.

sureshot

sureshot
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@nalban wrote:Good work bro. UPFA's case is very strong in statistically.
About the stock market we have been suffering a lot last six months. Now only we reached pre presidential poll levels thanks  to the anticipation of MR win and Nalaka Godahewa return.

y not malik carder inn....
hope  carder better than goda   Very Happy

Yahapalanaya

Yahapalanaya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

[size=22]Gammanpila sold company shares without approval - foreign investor

[/size]
Brian Shedrick, a foreign investor lodged a complaint to the CID alleging that Colombo District UPFA candidate and leader of the Pivithuru Hela Urumaya Udaya Gammanpila, had misused the Power of Attorney vested in him and amassed wealth by selling shares in the Pan Asia Bank, Ceylon Tea Gardens and Metal Recycle to third parties without approval. Lasith Perera who had been given the power of attorney by Brian Shedrick to handle this case, said Brian Shedrick arrived in the island on August 1 and made this complaint No 52-2015 to the CID.
Addressing a press conference at the National Library Services and Documentation Board Auditorium on August 12, Perera said Shedrick had given power of attorney to Gammanpila to handle day to day activities of Metal Recycle Ltd.
Shedrick believed that Gammanpila had allegedly misused the power of attorney to sell shares in Metal Recycle Company and other companies and amass wealth. He said the CID which had submitted a 'B' report on this complaint to Court, was investigating documents at the Pan Asia Bank and the Company Registrar's office to file a case.
He said the 'B' report submitted to Court had made allegations against Sidney Jayasinghe and Udaya Gammanpila in this regard, while another Director of these companies Jagath Wijeratne had already given a statement regarding the matter.
Perera said alleged acts of this nature would only harm foreign investments by discouraging foreigners to invest in Sri Lanka.

- See more at: http://www.dailynews.lk/?q=local/gammanpila-sold-company-shares-without-approval-foreign-investor#sthash.Yd5xUZV9.dpuf

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
this election result is combination off 2001 and 1989 general election

2001
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lankan_parliamentary_election,_2001

1989
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lankan_parliamentary_election,_1989

2015 PE and Provinsal councial elections result cannot compare with new situation

example 1988 PE election ekedi R. Premadasa Mahatha yanthamin 50.43%

1989 Parliment election
UNP 50.71%

habai Mathinige chanda prathishathaya 45% sita 32% watuna

ehenam me chandedi Maindage chanda prathishathaya wishala washayen watenawa.

mage target eke mahinda gani laksa 35 - 40 athara pramanayak

Yahapalanaya

Yahapalanaya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@stockback wrote:this election result is combination off 2001 and 1989 general election

2001
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lankan_parliamentary_election,_2001

1989
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lankan_parliamentary_election,_1989

2015 PE and Provinsal councial elections result cannot compare with new situation

example 1988 PE election ekedi R. Premadasa Mahatha yanthamin 50.43%

1989 Parliment election
UNP 50.71%

habai Mathinige chanda prathishathaya 45% sita 32% watuna

ehenam me chandedi Maindage chanda prathishathaya wishala washayen watenawa.

mage target eke mahinda gani laksa 35 - 40 athara pramanayak Akeng Maithirige 20 laksa adu karanna 
Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

Vptilak


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@piyalpy wrote:Smile It is totally mathematical analysis. If you have better analysis, tell me where I went wrong. Otherwise, your opinion/analysis/thoughts is invalid. That can't be a professional analysis but an analysis based on one's fantasies.

Good work. If some one has deference view he/she can come up with facts based on statistics.

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Public opinion may not be completely mirrored through a statistical analysis performed on a set of historical data. Best way is to conduct opinion surveys. I have shared few of those in my earlier post. Any one can refer to that.

shadow walker

shadow walker
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
are you dreaming...

Jiggysaurus

Jiggysaurus
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@sureshot wrote:affraid  

Colombo..... No chance for Beetle Leaf this time.

May be an error on the mathematical Formula applied.


How about One shot's chances in Katana?

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