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What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Vote_lcap12%What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Vote_rcap 12% [ 21 ]
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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » What will happen to the Chicken run ?

What will happen to the Chicken run ?

+17
stockback
dineshfernando
Invest_Wisely
kumarweerarathne
EPS
Hawk Eye
Yahapalanaya
peacockman
VALUEPICK
sureshot
EquityChamp
ddrperera
chamil1
Teller
suku502
samaritan
ChateauC
21 posters

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26What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Sun Sep 06, 2015 9:53 am

VALUEPICK


Expert
Expert

ChateauC wrote:Good analysis Valuepick and what is your prediction on
LIOC OSEA AND CHICKEN ?
It is interesting to see that you are following three different types of industries.

LIOC
 
It was one of the early movers in the market and it went up and then had a correction. It is getting investor interests again isn’t it?
 
OSEA
 
It is one of early movers in the current bull market. Sorry, lately I didn’t follow it.
 
Chicken rally
 
They are one of the latest movers in the market due to strong outlook. Just like other stocks they also have an uptrend in this bull market.
 
When we see storing outlook in any industry especially in bull markets their share prices will go up while having short term pause time to time. It is time to prepare for remaining stages of current bull market.  There will be more demand for defensive stocks such as food and health related stocks during latter stage of bull market. Short term political uncertainty is also over. Transfer of power is very smooth in Sri-Lanka. It brings investor confidence.

27What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Sun Sep 06, 2015 1:52 pm

ChateauC


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

@valuepick
Thanks very much, and I will add aomething to OSEA
Since OSEA is in real estate business they can expect some good cash flow, Havelock city has not been advertised well yet, good share but not buy at this price , try to buy when it hits low, can gain a good profit.

28What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Sun Sep 06, 2015 7:51 pm

peacockman


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

ChateauC wrote:@valuepick
Thanks very much, and I will add aomething to OSEA
Since OSEA is in real estate business they can expect some good cash flow, Havelock city has not been advertised well yet, good share but not buy at this price , try to buy when it hits low, can gain a good profit.
No Dear, OCEA :- current level (23.60) is good to enter!
Let us see it's YTD Chart....


What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Big

29What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Sun Sep 06, 2015 9:58 pm

ChateauC


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

@peacockman
Hmm pretty ...

30What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:05 pm

Yahapalanaya


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

peacockman wrote:
ChateauC wrote:@valuepick
Thanks very much, and I will add aomething to OSEA
Since OSEA is in real estate business they can expect some good cash flow, Havelock city has not been advertised well yet, good share but not buy at this price , try to buy when it hits low, can gain a good profit.
No Dear, OCEA :- current level (23.60) is good to enter!
Let us see it's YTD Chart....


What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Big
OSEA is leader in real estate sector  and currently undervalued share.Soon it will give good return.

drunken drunken drunken

31What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:13 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

3rd quarter financials will be more positive for poultry sector. Who ever buy in these levels are real winners.

32What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:02 pm

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

ChateauC wrote:@valuepick
Thanks very much, and I will add aomething to OSEA
Since OSEA is in real estate business they can expect some good cash flow, Havelock city has not been advertised well yet, good share but not buy at this price , try to buy when it hits low, can gain a good profit.
Thank you for your good advice. What are the other stocks in your mind?

33What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:12 pm

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Expert
Expert

Last 02 Qtrs very promising for Poultry Sector. If they produce similar results for next Qtr, its definitely going to take Poultry sector to new levels.

Lot of factors going to impact positively and negatively on this sector. Will post a detailed report soon. Few factor i keep tab on are the increasing income levels and purchasing power of people and the tourists arrival growth...and lot more to be considered 

September Qtr results will signal to enter or not

34What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:48 pm

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

When we take decisions on this sector we have to study some other factors including falling commodity prices, individual strength in each company, their market share here and in regional markets, growth, and future prospects including bigger picture as well. 

35What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:14 pm

EPS

EPS
Expert
Expert

Chicken price are around Rs.520/- to 540/- per kg now. With in last 02 - 03 weeks increased by Rs.120/- or 140/-.
Seems massive quarter for BFL.

36What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:30 pm

kumarweerarathne

kumarweerarathne
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Chicken run needs market fuel..

37What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:44 pm

Invest_Wisely


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

When stocks are attractive, you buy them. Sure, they can go lower. I've bought stocks at $12 that went to $2, but then they later went to $30. You just don't know when you can find the bottom.


Peter Lynch

38What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:57 pm

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

collect as much as you can. Super performance in November. NOW BFL will get some benifits as they are doing some exports too. GRAN has little uncertainancy as they import flavour. But BFL will get much benifit in the current scenario...

39What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Tue Sep 08, 2015 12:17 am

dineshfernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Hi Teller, What do you think of increasing maize prices in the world market. In July it went up from US$ 166 to US$ 179 a MT. The rupee depreciation also would eat up the profits of BFL.


Does BFL has an export market? I couldn't find out this anywhere? Even from the annual report and BFL website. In the annual report the director mentions about the possibility of export market. But nothing mentioned about BFL exporting.

How will be the September quarter for BFL? The chicken prices are increasing rapidly which is beneficial for BFL. However, packed chicken has a price control of Rs. 380 which is again eating up BFL's profits.

I think BFL is good for the medium term.

40What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Tue Sep 08, 2015 12:49 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

dineshfernando wrote:Hi Teller, What do you think of increasing maize prices in the world market. In July it went up from US$ 166 to US$ 179 a MT. The rupee depreciation also would eat up the profits of BFL.


Does BFL has an export market? I couldn't find out this anywhere? Even from the annual report and BFL website. In the annual report the director mentions about the possibility of export market. But nothing mentioned about BFL exporting.

How will be the September quarter for BFL? The chicken prices are increasing rapidly which is beneficial for BFL. However, packed chicken has a price control of Rs. 380 which is again eating up BFL's profits.

I think BFL is good for the medium term.


that is not big issue. compare with last quarter now chicken price is up more than 120. current Maize price is 159 USD

price control is not a issue. Demand is enough.

Maize price level drop more-than 50% from top

41What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Tue Sep 08, 2015 8:54 pm

ChateauC


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

Yeah demand is the only way for the greean...

42What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Tue Sep 08, 2015 9:11 pm

bullseye

bullseye
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

end of september what would? mkt will go down further or UP??

43What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Wed Sep 09, 2015 2:43 am

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

Keep your eye on BFL. it has passed its quarterly sales target at the moment. I believe BFL will report good EPS in this quarter as high prices of Chicken prices.

44What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Wed Sep 09, 2015 3:15 am

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator

@Dineshfernando, this is a metric ton price. 13 Usd increasement for 1000 kg. Increasement of Maize prices will effect cents of cost for a 1 kg. Dont worry at all. BFL easily pass 250 levels after releasing of Sep quarter financials.

45What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Tue Sep 15, 2015 8:43 pm

ChateauC


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

Best peformer may be BFL ...

46What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Tue Sep 15, 2015 11:59 pm

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

Enjoy the trend as long as their industry outlook is strong. Currently they have strong outlook due to local and global factors. Every industry will have strong business environment time to time. There are business cycles, industry cycles and market cycles. Remember those who have good knowledge about industry that they are following will have edge over others. This market has more legs and stock prices will adjust according to the future earnings. Not only poultry groups but also some other groups also should perform well in the coming quarters. When a stock breaks certain prices after long time it has more room to appreciate further.
 
When we see value, future strong outlook and earnings and strong momentum in stocks we should grab from our both hands. New comers should stay with great value.
 

Good luck 

47What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Wed Sep 16, 2015 8:24 am

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Mr valupick what is ur opinion about GRAN ?

48What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Wed Sep 16, 2015 2:46 pm

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert

GRAN has its own momentum due to strong outlook in their industry and demand. Stocks never go straight up or down. Time to time even strong bullish stocks could have volatility and pause etc. Until end of this bull market we cannot come to conclusion for any stock. We also should study whether GRAN can reach at least closer to TAFL.Then we can have another great opportunity. For this we should study and estimate at least next three to eight quarters. Do they have any future plans? Do they have any business in China and other East-Asian countries or Are they planning to expand their business? Do they have forward buying system? How much income will generate through TAFL? If they underperform in one area do they have many areas to make profits? How about their strong management style? How about their palm lands? How are they going to create shareholder value in the mid and long term?
 
After its major break out, it is continuously rising while having pause, minor volatility and minor pull back etc. If we can study personality of this stock, we should be able to make good capital gain. It has its own strong pattern as well. But it is different from TAFL's pattern. Patience is the key to success.

49What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Wed Sep 16, 2015 3:44 pm

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Thanks Mr valuepick.Im also waiting patiently to see GRAN pass 100 this month

50What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Wed Sep 16, 2015 3:54 pm

dimuthubasd


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

What will be the price of gran if I buy tomorrow. (around 86) is it worth or go for a market order. What is the best option. Pls share ur ideas

51What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Wed Sep 16, 2015 4:39 pm

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

86 is a great price to enter into GRAN mr. dimuth

52What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Wed Sep 16, 2015 4:40 pm

EPS

EPS
Expert
Expert

Currently GRAN is trading 7.6x PER , TAFL is trading 8.5x PER & BFL is trading 5.2x PER.
Also food sector CCS is trading 15x PER.
Understand the massively undervalued one.

53What will happen to the Chicken run ? - Page 2 Empty Re: What will happen to the Chicken run ? Wed Sep 16, 2015 4:52 pm

fulltilt


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

EPS wrote:Currently GRAN is trading 7.6x PER , TAFL is trading 8.5x PER & BFL is trading 5.2x PER.
Also food sector CCS is trading 15x PER.
Understand the massively undervalued one.

BFL's normalised PER is 6.4x since they have had a one -off gain. Even still, BFL is the most undervalued

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