Would like to initiate a discussion on this topic. Below are some historical facts.
2012 ASPI was 5643 and PE was 15.9
2013 ASPI was 5913 and PE was 15.9
2014 ASPI was 7299 and PE was 19.7
Today ASPI is 7086 and PE is 18.4
2013 ASPI gained by 4.8% while 2014 it gained by 23% but YTD it has dropped by 3%.
Does that mean 2014 market grew by unsustainable level? If that isn't the case why market PE ratio has hugely increased? If we assume 2012 & 2013 PE were fair and to sustain in 2015 and 2016 what would be the year end ASPI target?
Assuming an annual market EPS growth of 5% I worked out 2015 ASPI target of 6560 and 2016 ASPI target of 6880.
Another question is that whether the market will come close to this 2015 estimate if JKH falls say 150 level together with the decline is share prices of big companies with further foreign selling.
Then we need to talk how likely this can happen within the next couple of months.
Feel good if we can discuss on this.